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The Groundhog Elections: An Equalized Result To Remember That The US Is A Country Split In Two

2020-11-06T19:29:41.479Z


The first key to these elections is the enormous polarization of the United States. The analysis in the Kiko Llaneras newsletter


Good Morning.

Today I write about the elections in the United States, which have monopolized my interest this week.

The result, tighter than expected, will be known soon.

At that time we will talk about the keys.

For the moment I want to highlight the aspect that I consider fundamental: the growing polarization of the country.

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The United States remains a polarized country.

It is the clearest message I get from these elections: after an eccentric legislature and in the middle of a pandemic, the country has voted almost the same as in 2016. To resolve the tie we have been counting votes for days, but it is not the only sign of the hyper-balance that there are between factions.

  • The elections are decided because Wisconsin, Michigan and some other territory will change hands, but the remaining forty-something have repeated the winner.

    Of the 3,000 counties in the country, 97% have returned to vote for the same party.

  • Four years ago 46% of citizens voted for Trump and now 48% have.

    If he loses, it's because Democrats have risen a bit more: from Clinton's 48% to Biden's 51%.

  • Many groups have voted the same.

    Trump won the white vote 20 points behind Clinton and has now won again by 15, according to polls.

    Their rise among Latinos has also been widely discussed, which is minimal: from 28% to 32%.

The country is still divided into two waterproof halves.

84% of the people who declare themselves "conservatives" have voted for Trump and 89% of the "liberals", who in Spain we would call progressives, have voted for Biden.

Both percentages have grown.

There is more polarization.

The blue and red bases remain.

Democrats continue to sweep among racial minorities, while Republicans win among the white majority.

In the big cities Biden wins two against one, while in the field Trump clearly prevails.

Republicans dominate among Christians and Democrats, among the young.

Furthermore, this partisan division influences — perhaps appropriates — people's ideas, artificially polarizing them.

Is it a coincidence that Republicans care about crime and Democrats about coronavirus?

I don `t believe.

The disassociation with the epidemic is absolute: Democrats believe that wearing a mask is "a responsibility" and not "a personal choice", and that it is more important to contain the virus than to protect the economy.

For Republicans it is the other way around.

This division has an even worse consequence: the voters of both parties often do not like each other.

A growing problem in the United States is distrust between trenches.

96% of Democratic voters and 89% of Republicans said that if their rival won "they would be afraid."

As columnist David Brooks has pointed out, the vast majority of Americans believe that if the

wrong

candidate wins

, their country "will not recover."

What's more, many think that a victory by his rival will completely change their country: 82% of Biden's voters say that "Trump will probably transform his country into a dictatorship" and 90% of Trump's that the Democrats want to convert it in "a socialist country."

Sentimental rejection between Republicans and Democrats has been on the rise for three decades.

It is what is known as affective polarization, the distance between the closeness you feel for your party and the (often) rejection you feel for your rival.

In Spain we are debating these days whether that tension is rising with the pandemic, although Luis Miller and Mariano Torcal say that polarization was already very high among Spaniards 20 or 25 years ago.

In reality the polarization of the United States may be a singularity in reverse.

Perhaps it is not an exceptional country because it is very polarized now, but because it has been little so in the past.

That is the thesis of journalist Ezra Klein.

It is inevitable to think these days that something has changed.

The best illustration I have found is the following.

Think first of Trump's tweet on election night: he shouted for the count that seemed to be losing to be stopped: "Stop the scrutiny!"

And then go back 14 years to hear the speech of fellow Republican John McCain on an equivalent night in 2008. He came out before his supporters to acknowledge the victory of a newcomer, Barack Obama, with these words:

“The American people have spoken.

And he has spoken clearly.

I have had the honor of calling Senator Obama to congratulate him on being elected the next president of a country we both love [...] He has achieved this by raising the hopes of many millions of Americans who once mistakenly thought they had little stakes or influence in the election of an American president.

It is something I deeply admire.

This is a historic election and I recognize the special meaning it has for African Americans.

The special pride that should be yours tonight. "

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You can write me with clues or comments to my email: kllaneras@elpais.es 📬.

Source: elparis

All news articles on 2020-11-06

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