Political situation
Written by: Lin Jian
2020-11-09 07:00
Last update date: 2020-11-09 07:00
After waiting for the US presidential election for many days, the results finally became clear, and the Democratic Party Biden was elected smoothly.
From the perspective of Hong Kong, the most direct impact of the results of the general election on Hong Kong is whether there will be any adjustments to Hong Kong policies after the rotation of political parties, especially the implementation of many existing Hong Kong-related bills.
At present, the United States has three Hong Kong-related bills that have come into effect, namely the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, the Hong Kong Protection Act, and the Hong Kong Autonomy Act. However, there are still five related bills that have not been passed, including the proposal to speed up the asylum in Hong Kong. refugee".
The local politicians are concerned about whether Trump’s re-election as tough against China and Biden will take over the U.S. policy will change its attention to Hong Kong and whether the implementation of the passed bills will be suspended, including sanctions on Chinese and Hong Kong officials and prohibitions. Using the "Made in Hong Kong" label, etc., will the bills that fail to pass still die?
Some scholars believe that the policies that have been implemented have little chance, but it is difficult to expect that the Biden administration will take more actions than Trump. In other words, the existing bills may only be prepared and not used, such as "frozen".
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5 failed bills include expediting the processing of "refugee" applications from Hong Kong people
After Hong Kong experienced the anti-amendment turmoil, international attention has risen sharply. Among them, in the US political circles, it is the consensus of the Democratic and Republican congressmen to check and balance China.
There are currently five Hong Kong-related bills that have not yet been implemented, namely:
1.
"Hong Kong People's Freedom and Choice Act" (Hong Kong People's Freedom and Choice Act)
: Proposed by Democrat Rep. Tom Malinowski (Tom Malinowski) and Republican Rep. Curtis (John Curtis).
Provide temporary immigration status for Hong Kong residents facing and fleeing political persecution, so that Hong Kong residents who have been in the United States within a specified period of time can obtain legal residence and work permits; require the government to expedite the processing of refugee and asylum applications, especially for those in the struggle An important role in Hong Kong.
The bill has been passed by the Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives and is awaiting a vote by the entire House of Representatives.
2.
"Hong Kong Safe Harbor Act" (Hong Kong Safe Harbor Act)
: proposed by the Republican and Democratic parties in the Senate and House of Representatives on June 30, a few hours after the promulgation of the provisions of the "Hong Kong National Security Act", the State Council required the State Council to provide Hong Kong people with a second Class refugee status; Hong Kong residents who are persecuted or have sufficient concerns about facing persecution for expressing political views or peaceful participation in political activities are eligible to obtain refugee status. Spouses, children and Chinese parents will receive the same treatment; U.S. allies and partners are urged to treat Hong Kong people provide similar support.
The bill has a sunset clause, which will expire 5 years after the implementation date.
The bill is currently being reviewed by the House Judiciary Committee and the Foreign Affairs Committee.
3.
"Hong Kong Freedom Act"
: Proposed by Republican Representative Scott Perry in May this year, authorizing the president to recognize Hong Kong as an independent country.
The bill is currently under consideration by the Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives.
4.
"Hong Kong Refugee Protection Act" (Hong Kong Refugee Protection Act)
: Proposed by Republican Senator Tom Cotton in September this year.
The bill proposes to designate Hong Kong as a priority refugee area and to issue an additional 25,000 visas to persecuted Hong Kong residents each year.
The bill is currently being considered by the Senate Judiciary Committee.
5.
"Hong Kong Be Water Act"
: Introduced by Republican Senator Josh Hawley in October last year.
The bill condemns the Chinese government for violating the Sino-British Joint Declaration and the Basic Law and violating the civil liberties granted to Hong Kong people; it requires the president to freeze and suppress Hong Kong people’s speech in accordance with the Magnitsky Act (Magnitsky Act) , Assemblies and other free assets of Chinese and Hong Kong government officials and related persons.
The bill is now referred to the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee.
▼Hong Kong politicians watch the US election▼
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Yuan Michang: Biden ruled against Hong Kong "less sanctions, more attention"
Before the presidential election, the United States took a lot of actions against Hong Kong, including Trump’s announcement in June to revoke Hong Kong’s special treatment. In August, when goods produced in Hong Kong were exported to the United States, the country of origin must be marked as "China." The Hong Kong government has filed a complaint with the WTO using the "Made in Hong Kong" label; the State Council issued a report in October this year under the Hong Kong Autonomy Law, announcing that 10 Chinese and Hong Kong officials were included in the sanctions list, including Chief Executive Carrie Lam and Director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office Xia Baolong et al.
After Biden was elected, some commentators concerned that although it is the consensus of the two parties to check and balance China, Biden may be relatively "moderate" in terms of style. The Trump era's China and Hong Kong policies may have a chance to reverse.
The political scientist Yuan Michang analyzed in the TV program that Biden respects multilateralism relatively, and he is expected to "tell a few things" about China in the future, and "less sanctions and pay more attention" to the Hong Kong issue.
Yuan Michang further explained to reporters that since the existing US Hong Kong-related bills are not very specific, it leaves the executive with a lot of autonomy to decide how to act. Therefore, it is expected that the United States will still pay attention to China and the Hong Kong government in the future. One move, but it is mainly about expressing attitudes, and not necessarily many substantive actions, unless congressmen of the two parties are too loud about "in the system," and Biden has to do something.
He also pointed out that Biden mentioned in his latest speech that domestic opponents are "competitors, but not enemies." The same logic can also be applied to his attitude towards China.
▼List of Chinese and Hong Kong officials sanctioned by the US Department of the Treasury in August and their reasons▼
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Liu Zhaojia: No more actions than Trump, but continue to "use Hong Kong"
Liu Zhaojia, vice president of the National Hong Kong and Macau Research Association, believes that even if Biden takes power, the United States has implemented measures against Hong Kong, such as banning "made in Hong Kong" and sanctions against Chinese and Hong Kong officials. It is believed that the possibility of recovery is very low. Will give up using Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Tibet issues to create chaos and instability in China.
However, he pointed out that Biden represents the mainstream multilateral diplomacy of the traditional Democratic Party. He tends to check and balance China by wooing allies, and he is less inclined to take action in person. Because too many actions will harm the interests of the United States in Hong Kong, he believes that Biden will act against Hong Kong. No more than Trump.
Liu Zhaojia also pointed out that after the U.S. election, the urgency of the Chinese factor in the United States has been relatively reduced, and Biden is expected to focus on internal affairs in the short term.
He mentioned that the entire opposition camp in Hong Kong will not be active after the National Security Act takes effect. The United States may not be willing to invest too much in the Hong Kong opposition because it is not worth it; in addition, Hong Kong opponents and supporters bet on the Internet during the general election. Trump endangers the Democratic election and undermines mutual trust between the two. Therefore, although the Hong Kong opposition will still be one of the targets of the United States in the future, the degree of use is believed to be different.
US Election｜Yuan Michang: The Bill of Rights is expected to be less sanctioned and pay more attention to Hong Kong issues.
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