Political situation
Written by: Chen Jialuo and Zheng Rongdi
2020-11-09 07:00
Last update date: 2020-11-09 07:00
Democratic presidential candidate Biden has obtained more than 270 electoral votes and has issued a victory declaration. The outside world is concerned about whether Sino-US relations will be eased after Biden takes office, and whether the various bills against Hong Kong will be "suspended" or shelved.
The former Secretary of the Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau, Ma Shiheng, said in an interview with "Hong Kong 01" that he believes that after Biden takes office, some Hong Kong-related policies will have room for turning.
Chen Jiaqiang, another former director of the Finance and Treasury Bureau and an adjunct professor at the School of Business Administration of the University of Science and Technology, believes that Biden needs to focus on domestic epidemic prevention and anti-epidemic work and economic recovery in the first few months after taking office. It is estimated that sanctions against China will be within one year. It is difficult to undo.
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Ma Shiheng quoted diplomats saying that Xi Jinping and Biden had personal relations
When Ma Shiheng accepted the inquiry of "Hong Kong 01", he quoted a significant diplomat saying that Biden had a personal relationship with President Xi Jinping. In 2012, Xi visited the United States as Vice President of the State. The two lived together for a week, deepening mutual understanding. I believe that this visit to the White House will strengthen communication between the two parties.
As for whether the Sino-US trade war will be eased, Ma Shiheng believes that Biden is at least "slobbers", referring to Trump's remarks from time to time and believes that Biden will be more "rules."
The Trump administration has taken many actions against Hong Kong in the past few years, including that Hong Kong products exported to the United States are not allowed to use the "Made in Hong Kong" label. Ma Shiheng described the U.S. approach as "catch hard". The SAR government has also complained to the WTO. He believes After Biden took office, some Hong Kong-related policies, such as the "Made in Hong Kong" issue, had room for turning.
Chen Jiaqiang: Biden plays the card according to the rules, but the sanctions are difficult to revoke within one year
Chen Jiaqiang, who was also the Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, believes that even if Biden is on the stage, the main theme of US China policy has been set, and I believe it will not change much.
Chen Jiaqiang estimated that in the first few months after taking office, Biden focused on domestic epidemic prevention and anti-epidemic work and economic recovery.
As for the sanctions against China that Trump has launched during his tenure, including imposing tariffs and cracking down on Huawei, Chen Jiaqiang is expected to be difficult to revoke within a year. He also believes that the control of the Senate by the Democratic and Republican parties is still unclear. With the Republican Party in control of the Senate, Biden still has to spend a lot of time talking with the other party.
According to Chen Jiaqiang’s analysis, Biden’s strategy for China is different from Trump’s. In the long run, he may shift from a tariff war to a technology war. He also pointed out that Trump lacked strategic thinking. At the end of his term, the White House was dominated by the right-wing China policy and adopted it. The Cold War mentality treats China and I believe the Democratic Party will not do this.
Chen described that Biden is an opponent playing cards according to the rules for China. He believes that he sees China as a strategic competitor and will restore the "multilateralism" line and unite with allies against Beijing.
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