The Limited Times

Now you can see non-English news...

"Vamos lobito", the support that Martín Guzmán wins in power

2020-11-11T01:14:43.817Z


The Minister of Economy feels strengthened and is becoming the political axis of the measures. The dollar, pensions and the demands of the IMF.


11/10/2020 8:59 PM

  • Clarín.com

  • Opinion

Updated 11/10/2020 8:59 PM

Since the distant first days of August, when the long negotiation with the bondholders was closed and the Government believed that it was still leaning on the supposed success of the health policy against the coronavirus, the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán,

does not enjoy a present like the of the last few weeks.

There is only one explanation: the blue dollar fell $ 46 from the peak of $ 195 in October.

It greatly narrowed the gap with the official price of the US currency.

Nobody can affirm - not even the great experts - if this control of the dollar means a lasting exit.

Or just a cloth to quell the short-term turmoil.

With new debt papers

.

But that situation always provokes in Argentina

, due to its magical condition

, a feeling of tranquility.

As if the economic and social collapse weren't as dramatic as it still is.

That feeling, of course, circulates in power.

Like Covid, it has a

great contagion capacity.

Like every Monday, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, the head of the City, met with his closest team.

In the exchange, one of the advisers slipped: "It seems that we are better", in relation to the exchange market.

The mayor of Buenos Aires cut him off with an interpellation:

“You're not being serious, are you?

The City is dealing with the pruning of the budget set by Alberto Fernández.

And the pressure to withdraw the judicial protection on which the Supreme Court must decide.

Martín Guzmán, the day he announced he arranged with the bondholders, along with Cristina Kirchner and Alberto Fernández.

Photo: AFP

Guzmán, within his innate restraint,

feels empowered

.

And he is achieving something that the President ordered in a fierce moment of the storm.

That the minister is the political axis of the measures.

May he earn the respect of his peers.

They saw him as an inexperienced boy with a good academic background at Columbia.

But clean of the essential Argentine clay.

Alberto tried, in this way, to correct an original defect that he copied from Mauricio Macri: the dispersion of the governmental economic structure.

Those chameleons varied with the minister their vision and their treatment.

"Come on little wolf!"

They have started telling you since the run on the dollar began to decline.

An occurrence that recognizes soccer origin.

Guzmán is from Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata, the club that is now in the limelight as a result of the health problems of his DT, Diego Maradona.

The minister still has

all the battles

ahead of him

.

Including the dollar.

But the calm of the US currency allows him to focus on two key issues.

The negotiation with the International Monetary Fund, which started in the last hours.

The struggles that each of his gestures unleashes in the Front of All.

Especially with sectors that call themselves "progressive."

It has a first step almost taken.

It seems to have convinced the hardliners that the new pension mobility formula will not take inflation into account.

It would return to the mechanism that governed much of the administration of Cristina Fernández.

A mix between salary variation and collection.

The Budget estimates inflation at 30%.

The private ones between 40% and 50%.

Macrismo modified the equation (it incorporated the rise in the cost of living) in December 2017 during

the scandalous session

with street protests watered with 14 tons of stones.

Alberto had promised to immediately compensate the retirees.

20%.

With the abolition of the interests of the Leliqs.

The pandemic and the emergency arrived that left the passive class subject to increases by decree

that sank, on average, their purchasing power.

Let's change anticipated that he will oppose the proposal.

The possibility of a hot debate causes irritation in Kirchnerism.

The retirement issue is always one of high social sensitivity.

Guzmán plans for the new formula to take effect next year.

When, with a still uncertain picture about the pandemic (despite the promise of many vaccines), the legislative elections are played.

Beyond rhetoric, the Government, just as the Macrismo did in its time, pursues a pension adjustment that constitutes

the deep and structural hole of the fiscal deficit.

That is, without a doubt, one of the backbone aspects of any negotiation with the IMF.

The Government sent a Budget Law to Congress that provides for a deficit of 4.5% of GDP.

Guzmán intends less than that to get the negotiation with the financial body on track.

Perhaps one point less.

Lots of silver.

Hence two issues that are on the official agenda.

The possibility of greatly limiting social assistance (Emergency Family Income) due to the pandemic that is financed with issuance.

On another lifeline, the beginning of the update of public service rates that have been frozen since the last year of the Macrista era.

Guzmán will seek to renegotiate the US $ 44 billion debt with the IMF through an Extended Facilities Program.

It is granted to countries that face balance of payments problems with the chance of longer repayment periods.

According to the minister, the repayment of capital in installments

"would be made between year 4 and 10 of the agreement that is signed

.

"

Alberto could pass his term without large expenditures but with the obligation to order and stabilize the economy.

Those obligations would include the classic IMF obligations.

The fiscal deficit, inflation and certain structural reforms that our country, with or without Peronism, never completes.

Guzman believes that the pension proposal may be a sign.

The tax problem and the labor reform remain.

Will Kirchnerism meekly comply with such demands?

The question is not only a domestic heritage.

It also rings at the IMF.

Learn about the variety of thoughts that coexist, with conflicts, in the official coalition.

Of course, it does not ignore the tensions between the President and Cristina either.

Guzmán assumes that those clouds could dissipate if the hypothetical agreement with the IMF has the signature of Congress.

No simple task awaits you.

Better, enjoy the present.

"Come on little wolf!"


Source: clarin

All news articles on 2020-11-11

You may like

Trends 24h

Latest

© Communities 2019 - Privacy

The information on this site is from external sources that are not under our control.
The inclusion of any links does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorse the views expressed within them.