Forecast by the “economic wise men”: The tough Corona year will soon be over - When will the upswing come?

The "economic wise men" actually have good news: the economy in Germany in 2020 will not crash as badly as feared.

• The corona pandemic determines everyday life around the world - and has an impact on the economy.

• Germany is also struggling with the consequences.

• Nevertheless, there is reason for hope for the “economic wise men”.

Berlin - The second week of the

is

, the

are not going down, the winter could be long and hard.

The

crashing this year.

The message of the

wise men

was on Wednesday: It will not be quite as bad as feared.

But when will the

and how strong will it be?

Everything depends on whether the pandemic

can be quickly brought under control

with a

.

As of now,

expect

that the

be reached again

.

Although the German

Experts raised

its forecast for

this year, the main reason is the unexpectedly strong economic recovery in the third quarter.

"Economic wise men" see a silver lining on the horizon

The "economic wise men" therefore expect a

(GDP) of 5.1 percent

for the current year

.

That would be roughly at the level of the slump in the global financial crisis in 2009. The “economic

” are thus somewhat

(

).

In June the council had predicted a minus of 6.5 percent for 2020.

Due to the sharp rise in the number of infections, the economic situation remains fragile, said the chairman of the Advisory Council, Lars Feld, when the annual report was presented.

For

is crucial how the pandemic can be contained and how the economy abroad develops.

The "economic

men

" also see a

, like millions of people.

Chances for better economic development would lie in the unexpectedly rapid

development, provision and dissemination of a suitable vaccine or effective drugs against the

.

The companies Biontech and Pfizer were the first western manufacturers to present promising data from clinical tests.

Expert council for #economic development.

Presentation of the annual report of #Wirtschaftsweise for 2020/2021 https://t.co/hJTUaYm4R9

- tagesschau (@tagesschau) November 11, 2020

Forecast of the "economic wise men": possible corona vaccine brings confidence

Feld said we had to wait and see.

But the prospect of an

could do one thing above all: confidence.

For example, if the vaccine was effective,

could travel again and

more

on consumption.

The

recently

.

Many people put their money on the high edge because they don't know what to do next.

A vaccine could also give the economy a

- so far, the Council

of Economic

Experts has expected

of 3.7 percent

in the coming year

.

Prerequisite: there are no new massive restrictions like in spring and international supply chains are not significantly disrupted as they were then.

Politicians absolutely want to avoid such a major lockdown.

That is why the federal and state governments decided on a “lockdown light” at the end of October.

Video: Corona crisis - call for help from business and culture

So had

for November

,

can not accommodate more tourists.

According to the forecast, the measures have a

- because they cannot be compared with the nationwide lockdown in spring, which led to a slump in

.

The

trying to cushion the consequences for companies and jobs with aid worth billions.

For the crisis policy there was a rare praise of the "economic wise men": The

acted

during the crisis

, it says in the report with a view to the

.

The stimulus package also had a

on GDP.

Serious slumps in disposable income and the labor market have so far been prevented, as the report shows.

According to the prognosis,

is likely

to decline by around 420,000

2020 compared to the previous year and the number of unemployed to rise to 2.7 million.

Forecast of the "economic wise men": More growth brings more tax revenue

The situation will improve in 2021 - depending on the

.

But what about the

?

The federal government has borrowed immensely, there are

in financial planning

,

have to be paid off in the medium and long term.

The "economic wise men" are primarily focusing on growth, also boosted by

, an expansion of the digital infrastructure and relief in electricity prices through the abolition of the EEG surcharge to promote green electricity.

With more growth,

increase.

But what if that doesn't happen?

In this case, the Council does not agree - but the majority are in favor of doing something on the expenditure side.

In other words: the

.

This upset the German Trade Union Federation.

Board member Stefan Körzell scolded: "Anyone who is already talking about budget consolidation and an allegedly necessary cut in government tasks in this situation is playing with fire."