Political situation
Written by: Lin Jian
2020-11-12 07:00
Last update date: 2020-11-12 07:00
In accordance with the decision of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress yesterday (November 11), the government announced that in the Legislative Council elections scheduled for September this year, the incumbent members Yang Yueqiao, Guo Rongkeng, Guo Jiaqi, and Liang Jichang, who were ruled to be invalid in the nomination of the Legislative Council, will immediately lose their membership of the Legislative Council. , The other 15 members of the legislative council of the pro-democracy party immediately announced their general resignation in protest. The enthusiastic citizen Zheng Songtai and the medical profession Chen Peiran will remain in office.
The DQ incidents in the current Legislative Council have been wave after wave. After this DQ, the Legislative Council has reduced 19 members, leaving the original 70-seat Legislative Council with only 43 members. Except for Cheng Songtai and Chen Peiran, the rest are all Establishment.
This is the collective departure of the largest legislative council members since the reunification.
This general speech will have a significant impact on the operation of the parliament in the next half of the year. I believe that the most controversial "Lantau Tomorrow" funding and mainland voting amendments can be easily passed without the obstruction of the democrats.
From the perspective of the proposed resolution, the one who is most affected may be a member who is still in office...
▼Democrats see the reporter explain the general resignation decision▼
Streaming opportunities are greatly reduced
The current Legislative Council originally had 70 seats. After Liang You’s oath in 2016, Liang Guoxiong and Yao Songyan were transferred to the post of Deputy Director of the Bureau of Labor and Welfare by DQ and the Federation of Trade Unions He Qiming in 2017. Only 62 members remain.
After the DQ and General Resignation incident, there are only 43 members of the parliament, 41 of whom are establishments.
There is currently a quorum of 35 people in the parliament. As long as the establishment has a sufficient number of people, it will not have much impact. Moreover, the democrats are not in the parliament. Even if there are not enough people in the parliament, no one may ask for a calculation to determine the number. The chance is greatly reduced.
It is believed that there will be little impact on the voting of the motion, because the government bill can be passed by a simple majority, and the establishment has enough votes; and the establishment also controls the control of the division of votes, so the overall situation of parliamentary voting is expected. Affected.
However, the democrats continued to speak during the meeting after the extension of the term of office resumed, delaying the meeting. This situation will not recur in the future, so the overall voting process is expected to speed up.
When the establishment completely controls the parliament and there is no more delaying work, the bill will enter "no man's land."
The next thing to pay attention to is whether the establishment can play a supervisory role in people's livelihood policies.
Zheng Songtai stated that he will remain in the parliament, but he still has a chance to be DQ by the establishment.
(Photo by Luo Junhao)
The establishment can control the fate of Zheng Songtai
As for some key issues, the legislation under Article 23 of the Basic Law is a government bill and it is quite easy to pass it.
For practical reasons, it will take some time for the government to draft bills, consultations, third readings, etc. The current parliament may only have eight or nine months left, and it should be dealt with in time.
Moreover, the current "Hong Kong National Security Law" has been enacted, and completing the constitutional task of enacting Article 23 of the Basic Law is no longer a priority.
The political reform plan will not pass anyway.
This is because Annex I and Annex 2 of the Basic Law stipulate that if the method for the formation of the Chief Executive and the Legislative Council needs to be modified, it must be approved by a two-thirds majority of all members of the Legislative Council.
"All members" is still based on 70 seats, so it must be supported by 47 votes.
At present, there are only 43 members left in the parliament (together with Chairman Liang Junyan who does not vote as usual). The government has also stated that it will not be by-election. Therefore, it is impossible for the current parliament to pass political reform.
There is an effect that "seems to be there or not," and that is the condemnation motion, because the condemnation motion only requires the consent of two-thirds of the members present.
When the democrats were still in office, together with Zheng Songtai and Chen Peiran, there were 21 seats, which happened to hold more than one-third of the seats, which prevented the establishment from passing the condemnation motion (assuming Liang Junyan did not vote and the condemned person avoided the seat).
Now the establishment has an absolute advantage, and all motions of condemnation go unimpeded.
Of course, after the democrats have resigned, they no longer have to spend any effort to DQ them.
The only affected person is believed to be Zheng Songtai who is still in office.
Zheng was alleged to be related to the case that hit the Legislative Council on July 1st last year. The New Democrat Party Rong Haien filed a motion for condemnation. The motion was passed to the House Committee after being passed by the General Assembly on December 12th last year. Putting relevant matters on the agenda, and because of this, even the follow-up procedures of the investigation committee cannot be done.
After the general resignation of the democrats, the work of the establishment in the parliament is expected to go smoothly. By then, Zheng Songtai may be caught in an embarrassing situation where he wants to stay in office but is eventually forced to leave.
Rong Haien, who proposed the motion of condemnation, responded to inquiries and pointed out that the motion will follow the normal procedures and does not comment on whether the progress will be accelerated after the resignation of the democrats.
▼Reporter Carrie Lam explained DQ decision▼
People's Congress DQ｜Liao Changjiang: The Legislative Council will not change its rubber stamp and will continue to amend its rules of procedure
National People's Congress DQ｜Zheng Songtai and Chen Peiran decided to stay low on Taibo: the most suitable time for his resignation
National People's Congress DQ | What is the legal basis?
Lam Cheng cited a number of laws saying that DQ is not an administrative agency.
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Cheng Songtai National People's Congress