Covid: Seine-Saint-Denis holds the sad record for the increase in the number of deaths since September

October 17, 2020: Seine-Saint-Denis picks up.

Slowly, almost inexorably, for five days, the signals turn red.

As positive Covid-19 cases explode across France, the death toll in 93 is once again rising daily to peak at 41 new deaths on October 21.

This is double the average recorded in the department.

The curve oscillates to then drop to 26 dead on November 2.

If the indicator includes deaths "from all causes", it nevertheless follows a similar trend to the resumption of the disease linked to the coronavirus.

The alert is visible thanks to the enormous compilation work of the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee).

And this increase, not so easy to detect for the uninitiated, is however completely abnormal: between September 1 and November 2, the number of deaths in Seine-Saint-Denis is 22.4% higher than in 2019 data. , over the same period.

12% more deaths across the region since September 1

In the very large northern part of the country, 93 is the territory that denotes a little more worrying.

In Ile-de-France, it is the department that has the greatest difference, well ahead of Seine-et-Marne (+ 16.4% compared to 2019), Essonne (+ 15.8%) , Hauts-de-Seine (+ 12.5%) and Paris (+ 11.3%).

Across the region, the increase in the number of deaths is 12% compared to 2019, and 10% for the whole country.

These figures should be all the more obvious as the number of deaths reported over the summer in the 93 has returned to line with the 2019 average.

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Another observation in Seine-Saint-Denis: between September 1 and November 2, the increase in deaths among people aged 65 to 74 is 61% compared to 2019, in the same time frame!

On the other hand, it is down by 25% among young people.

"There is probably the effect of confinement in these figures: the measures taken to fight the pandemic have made it possible to reduce deaths among young people", estimates Valérie Roux, head of the Demography Department at INSEE.

24% excess mortality in hospital

A focus on the situation in retirement homes in 93 is also striking.

Over the critical period from March 1 to April 30, excess mortality reached 307%, compared to 2019!

Over the entire period (March 1-November 2), the department recorded 81% excess mortality compared to 80% in Essonne, 74% in Val-d'Oise, 69% in Hauts-de-Seine, 64% in Val-de-Marne, 51% in Yvelines, 41% in Seine-et-Marne and 31% in Oise.

The record ?

Paris, with 104% excess mortality since March 1.

But in the 93, between September 1 and November 2, "the number of deaths is down 17.5% in nursing homes," says Valérie Roux.

No explanation for this data, especially since the other Ile-de-France departments do not record any such thing.

On the other hand, in 93, deaths increased by 24% in hospital and 32% at home, between September 1 and November 2.

Chilling data

The work of INSEE experts had already highlighted the incredible excess mortality of 124% in 93, between March 1 and April 30.

The data compiled at the time are chilling.

On the day of confinement, March 17, Seine-Saint-Denis begins a break in terms of deaths compared to 2019 and 2018. March 30 is striking, with 104 deaths listed in Seine-Saint-Denis, or nearly five times more than the usual average.

And if we compare the cumulative data from March 1, 2020, the number of deaths in 93 is 3,103 on May 11, the date of deconfinement, against 1,491 in 2019 and 1,607 in 2018.