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Putin drew a red line for Erdogan in an agreement to end the war in Nagorno-Karabakh
Russia, at least in the short term, is coming out on top when it has managed to position its forces in the South Caucasus and prevent a Turkish presence on the ground.
Turkey, for its part, has strengthened national morale, Azerbaijan enjoys territorial achievements, while Armenia is on the road to a change of government after the defeat
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Nagorno-Karabakh
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Russia
Turkey
Vladimir Putin
Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Reuters
Saturday, 14 November 2020, 16:42
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In the video: Putin announces ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh (Photo: Reuters, edited by: Assaf Drori)
Russian President Vladimir Putin has drafted a peace agreement that ended the war in Nagorno-Karabakh while preserving the Turkish-backed territorial achievements of Azerbaijan.
In doing so, he prevented a greater presence of Turkey in the province where Moscow sees it as its backyard.
Six weeks of fierce fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenian forces in the enclave examined Russia's influence in the South Caucasus, part of the former Soviet Union where it sees it as vital to defending its southern front.
The three previous ceasefires, two of which were mediated by Russia, soon collapsed.
Azerbaijan accidentally shot down a Russian military helicopter, killing two crew members.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan supported the Azerbaijani offensive militarily and diplomatically and hoped to reap profits from the mediation efforts.
Eventually, Putin fulfilled a Russian dream more than two decades old, and placed a force of Russian observers in Nagorno-Karabakh, whose presence could be renewed every five years.
For now, he has also kept Turkish forces out of the disputed territory, and instead will help run a ceasefire control center.
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Russian Observer Force in Nagorno-Karabakh, today (Photo: Reuters)
The agreement extends Russia's military foothold, in what appears to be a decision on competition between Moscow and Ankara for influence in the region, of the kind that continues in Syria and Libya.
Putin halted a complete Azerbaijani takeover with Turkish backing over all of Nagorno-Karabakh, which according to Armenian forces was just days before a complete fall.
He put a seal on Russian influence through the agreement, in which Turkey was not one of the signatory parties.
"In many ways, the deal meets Russia's key interests in the conflict, and is perhaps the best outcome (at least in the short term) that Moscow can achieve," said Alexander Govov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Central Research Institute in Moscow.
"Russia has deployed 2,000 of its observers in Nagorno-Karabakh - something it wanted to do back in 1994, but failed to do. There will be no Turkish armed observers, which is very important for Moscow."
Turkey said the ceasefire agreement was a "sacred success" of its ally Azerbaijan, which also enjoyed Israeli weapons.
Erdogan described Ankara's support for Azerbaijan as part of Turkey's journey to reach its "proper place in the world order".
He said the agreement had shattered the illusions of "Armenian occupation" over the past three decades.
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Uzgur Onlonisercikli, director of the German Marshall Foundation's research group in Ankara, said the Russian presence in the region was a negative development for Turkey and Azerbaijan, but the Azeri position is now much stronger than six weeks ago. -1994.
"Azerbaijan has had great success on the ground and it is determined by this ceasefire," he said.
The Eurasia research group said Erdogan probably did not regret the sequence of events too much.
"Turkey retains a certain role, but it is clearly secondary to that of Russia," the group's memo read.
"Erdogan is apparently fine with that. His military support for Azerbaijan has made a big difference at a relatively low price to Turkey, and it has given Ankara a nationalist victory and some leverage against Russia."
Despite this, the presence of Russian observers, armed and supported by armored vehicles, freezes the conflict in its current state and prevents any further progress by Azeri forces and their allies.
It will not shed a tear if the regime in Armenia falls.
Putin watches an update on the situation on the ground, yesterday (Photo: Reuters)
Moscow, which is in a military alliance with Armenia and has a base in its territory, could benefit even if Armenian Prime Minister Nicole Pashinian falls from power.
He led the popular protest against the government in 2018, which was forced to retire, and relations with Russia were at times difficult.
He was not pro-Russian enough in the eyes of Russia in relation to important issues like his predecessors in office, and he was perceived as the one who overthrew a generation that was loyal to the Kremlin.
In the past week, thousands have taken to the streets of the capital, Yerevan, demanding that Peshinian resign, after calling him a "traitor" for signing the agreement.
Moscow is not expected to shed a tear if it falls, but Mark Glaotti, a senior fellow at the Royal Services Institute, said that despite Moscow's diplomatic achievement, the ceasefire agreement was meant to beautify the situation.
"This is loss management. Russia, which is regionally strong in its capabilities but weak in determination, is trying to get the best out of the situation, and in the process it is disappointing its allies and doing nothing to deter those who challenge it," he wrote in an opinion piece in the Moscow Times. ".
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