Trump bans investing in Chinese firms 1:42
Hong Kong (CNN) -
As US President-elect Joe Biden faces an unpleasant and potentially controversial transition, foreign policy may be the last thing on your mind.
But in capitals around the world, foreign leaders are already clamoring for your attention, hoping to reestablish relations and restore the rules that changed under President Donald Trump.
Nowhere will there be greater opportunity for change than in the relationship between the United States and China, which has deteriorated to record lows during Trump's tenure.
In the past four years, both sides have attacked each other with trade tariffs, restricted access to tech companies, journalists and diplomats, closed consulates and clashed militarily in the South China Sea.
Analysts from both countries are still debating whether Biden will adopt Trump's more punitive policies toward China or move to restore relations between Washington and Beijing.
Even in the Chinese state media, there are indications that the ruling Communist Party is holding its breath, not knowing which direction the new administration will take.
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ANALYSIS |
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The rivalry between the United States and China in technology and trade will not end because Joe Biden is president
Chinese President Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan are greeted by then-US Vice President Joe Biden and his wife Jill at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, in 2015.
"China should not harbor illusions that Biden's election will alleviate or bring about a change in China-US relations, nor should it weaken its belief in improving bilateral relations.
America's competition with China and its guard against China will only intensify, ”the state tabloid Global Times stated in an editorial on Sunday.
So far, Biden's transition team has not released official policy statements on China.
However, Biden is not a newbie in foreign policy.
During his nearly five decades in national politics, Biden has repeatedly clashed with China.
As a senator, he played a role with China by becoming a member of the World Trade Organization in 2001.
Analysts are now looking at Biden's past statements and more recent comments made on his campaign to get an idea of how Biden will address what could be his most pressing foreign policy challenge.
Washington's relations with Beijing
During the administration of President Barack Obama, in which Biden served as vice president, from 2009 to 2017, relations with Beijing received a high degree of importance, derived in part from China's new status as the world's second-largest economy.
Although China was gaining strength both economically and militarily, diplomacy during this period was guided for the most part by attempts at cooperation rather than confrontation.
The main disputes were mostly contained and focused on security issues, such as China's military build-up in the South China Sea and cyber espionage.
According to Obama, the relationship between two countries would shape the 21st century and, therefore, stable relations were fundamental not only for the United States, but for the world in general.
Biden traveled to Beijing on several occasions during efforts to gain China's support for a number of key Obama policies, including attempts to contain North Korea's nuclear ambitions.
During one such trip, in 2013, Biden met with President Xi Jinping, who referred to the then vice president as an "old friend of China."
A private conversation between the two leaders, which was initially scheduled to last 45 minutes, lasted two hours.
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In public statements, Biden described the relationships in optimistic terms.
"If we can get this relationship right with a genuine new model, the possibilities are limitless."
But despite accusations from the Trump campaign that Biden was too close to China, there is evidence that his views have shifted in recent years in keeping with the change of mood in Washington, where Beijing is increasingly seen. but not as the potential partner of the United States, but as its main rival.
During the Democratic primary in February, Biden referred to China's President Xi Jinping as a "bully" and said Beijing had to "play by the rules."
A Biden campaign ad in June accused China of misleading Trump.
The renewed focus on China is evident in the document on the Democratic Party platform, which was released in August 2020. During the last presidential campaign, in 2016, the document only made seven references to China.
This year's version had more than 20.
"The Democrats will be clear, strong and consistent in pushing back where we have deep economic, security and human rights concerns about the actions of the Government of China," said the Democratic platform in 2020.
Bilateral trade between China and the US
One of the main pillars of President Trump's foreign policy platform has been his trade war with China.
Since mid-2018, the Trump administration has imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese imports, in an attempt to reduce the United States' trade deficit with China and force Beijing to further open its economy.
Beijing and Washington reached a "phase one" trade deal in January 2020, but many areas of disagreement still remain unaddressed, including China's subsidies for state-owned companies competing in the global market.
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Biden's recent comments suggest that he will continue to crack down on Beijing for its economic policies.
But in an interview with US public radio, NPR, in August, he made it clear that he believed the tariffs were just as bad for the United States as they were for China.
“Manufacturing has entered a recession.
Agriculture lost billions of dollars that taxpayers had to pay.
We are going after China on the wrong path, "he said.
Instead, Biden seems to favor building a global coalition to force China to liberalize its economy.
"What I would make China do is follow international rules, not like he has done," Biden said during his second debate with Trump in October.
“We need the rest of our friends with us to tell China, 'These are the rules.
You play with them or you are going to pay the price for not paying them financially. '
There are also signs that Biden may adopt aspects of Trump's tech war against China.
Under Trump, the United States has sought to pressure its diplomatic partners to reject 5G technology made in China, insulate Beijing from vital American components and popular applications run by Chinese companies.
Biden said in September he was concerned about the widely used Chinese-owned TikTok app that has been a prominent target of the Trump administration.
"I think it is a genuine concern that TikTok, a Chinese company, has access to more than 100 million young people, particularly in the United States," he said.
In the 2020 Democratic Platform, there is another indication that a Biden administration will continue Trump's push to prevent allies from using 5G technology produced by Chinese tech giant Huawei.
"We will work with our allies and partners to develop secure 5G networks and address threats in cyberspace," the platform said.
South China Sea
Both the Obama and Trump administrations have pursued policies that rejected the Chinese government's broad and unproven claims in the South China Sea.
It was during the Obama-Biden administration that the Chinese government began to build and militarize artificial islands in the vast waterway.
The United States then launched freedom of navigation operations in the region, navigating US naval vessels in close proximity to the artificial islands and reefs built by Beijing in a sign that Washington would not acknowledge China's claims.
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Under the Trump administration, the United States has stepped up these operations and has publicly declared that "most" of China's claims about the sea are illegal.
Biden has made no major public statements on the South China Sea, but there is no indication at this stage that he will reverse Trump's tough policies in the region;
it might even strengthen them.
In 2016, the Democratic platform simply referred to protecting "the freedom of the seas in the South China Sea."
Now, four years later, it explicitly warns of "the intimidation of the Chinese Army" in the region.
More than once during his campaign, Biden has told the story of how he bluntly informed President Xi Jinping, in 2013, that the United States would continue to fly aircraft through the region, despite the Chinese government establishing a zone of unrecognized air defense identification.
“[He said] you can't fly through them.
I said we're going to fly through them… We're not going to pay attention, ”Biden said during his second debate with Trump in October.
Biden has reinforced his position of looking down on China's expansionary claims in the Asia-Pacific since he became president-elect.
In a phone call with Japanese Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide last Thursday, Biden pledged to defend the controversial Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, which are claimed by both Japan and China.
Taiwan
Taiwan approaches the US and denounces China 1:01
Under President Trump, the United States has moved to strengthen official ties with Taiwan, especially during the past 12 months.
The Trump administration has authorized billions of dollars in arms sales to the autonomous island, and in August Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar became the highest-ranking US official to visit Taiwan in decades.
Biden has long been in favor of America's support for Taiwan and its democratically elected government.
In fact, during his time as a senator, the president-elect voted in favor of the original Taiwan Relations Act, in 1979, which allowed the United States to maintain unofficial relations with Taipei while formally recognizing the Chinese government.
China maintains that Taiwan is part of its territory, even though the two sides have been ruled separately since the end of a civil war in 1949. President Xi has pledged to "reunite" Taiwan with mainland China, by force if necessary.
In an opinion piece written in 2001, the then-senator said the United States had a "vital interest in helping Taiwan maintain its vibrant democracy."
But he made it clear that the United States had no "obligation" to defend the island from attack.
"The president should not give Taiwan, much less China, the ability to automatically lead us to a war across the Taiwan Strait," he said.
Biden hasn't spoken much about Taiwan in the election campaign or since his transition began.
But there is no indication that he is planning to back down on Trump's policies.
Biden tweeted his congratulations to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen when she was re-elected in January 2020, and reciprocated when she won in November.
In a telling sign, the Democratic Party removed all mention of the "One China" policy from its platform in 2020, the agreement by which the United States recognized that there is only one China and Taiwan is part of it.
The policy, which had appeared in 2016, was replaced by a new, seemingly updated language.
Instead, the Democrats are now committed to continuing "a peaceful resolution of cross-strait problems, in accordance with the wishes and best interests of the people of Taiwan."
Xinjiang and Hong Kong
Since the Trump administration took office in 2017, there has been a growing stream of reports of widespread human rights abuses in the western region of Xinjiang, China.
The US State Department estimates that up to two million Muslim minority citizens, including a large number of Uighurs, have been held in detention centers, where former detainees allege they were indoctrinated, abused and even sterilized.
In the past 12 months, the Trump administration has taken a series of punitive actions against China for its Xinjiang policies, including sanctions against Communist Party officials and bans on products possibly made with Uighur forced labor.
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Before the November 3 elections, several Uighur exiles told CNN they were concerned that Biden would not be strong enough to take on Beijing and produce real results for his friends and family in Xinjiang.
But all of Biden's statements, his campaign, and the Democratic Party's point show little tolerance for Beijing's alleged attacks on the Uyghurs and hint that the Biden administration will take further action.
Speaking about President Xi in a Democratic Primary debate in February, Biden said: "This is a guy who is a bully, who actually has a million Uyghurs in 'reconstruction camps', that is, concentration camps. ».
Biden's campaign has called China's actions in Xinjiang "genocide," a label the Trump administration was still debating earlier this year.
If a Biden administration adopted the same language, it would put the United States far ahead of most other nations in its condemnation of Beijing.
Exiled Uighurs are not alone in their concern that Trump's departure from the White House will lead the United States to backtrack from its tough approach to China.
Many proponents of democracy in Hong Kong, who have been battling the Chinese government's crackdown on civil liberties in the international financial center, were also expecting a second term from Trump, citing concerns that Biden will not be tough enough on Beijing.
But in a statement in May, the Biden campaign blamed Trump for China's crackdown in Hong Kong and promised that in the future there will be "clear, strong and consistent values when it comes to China."
- CNN's James Griffiths, Steven Jiang and Jill Disis contributed to this story.
China - United States relations