First electoral test for the crack: when, where and what the polls say

Eduardo Paladini

11/17/2020 12:16 PM

• Clarín.com

• Politics

Updated 11/17/2020 12:16 PM

On Sunday

, in the second most populated department of the second province with the most voters in the country, the crack will have its

of the year.

In

, Córdoba, the united Peronism will seek to maintain that key intendancy and Together for Change, in the local version, will try to dethrone it.

Polls anticipate polarization, and when not, their numbers differ.

The election will be exactly eight months later than originally planned.

At first, it

in this district of about 250,000 inhabitants and 140,000 voters (similar to a medium-sized municipality in the Buenos Aires suburbs).

But the pandemic forced the postponement.

The Peronist mayor of Río Cuarto, Juan Manuel Llamosas, during the pandemic.

He's going for reelection.

Photo Courtesy La Voz del Interior.

Why is Río Cuarto out of date with the general electoral calendar?

At the end of the 90s, as a gesture of autonomy, an amendment was approved to run the departmental election for six months.

In this case, instead of October 2019, he would go to the polls in March of this year.

,

but not the stellar candidates.

The central fight has, in a corner, the current mayor,

, who managed to bring together all the provincial Peronism.

It is not a minor detail: in Córdoba, historically, the armed majority of governors

 and, on the other, Kirchnerism

moved, on the one hand

.

In many, many elections - municipal, provincial and even national - they were separately.

On the other side, the main rival is the radical 

, who competes under the local umbrella of Juntos por Río Cuarto, in which radicalism, the PRO, the

Civic Front

and the Civic Coalition

converge

.

The candidate of Together for Río Cuarto, Gabriel Abrile.

Photo courtesy of La Voz del Interior.

The choice is crossed by the Covid in different ways.

According to provincial political and journalistic sources, in March the mayor was calmly on his way to reelection.

But

among Cordobans.

And some point to Llamosas for "certain inaction" in the face of the health crisis, which required provincial intervention.

Abrile, meanwhile, is the head of intensive care at a local hospital and three private clinics.

Despite this, he participated in some marches against the national government.

When he caught the coronavirus and ended up being treated in the city of Córdoba, the provincial capital, he was

.

​

The Morrison case and what the polls say

Although the election of Río Cuarto is taken as the first electoral test of a certain magnitude, last Sunday Córdoba registered

.

They voted in Morrison, a town of 4,000 people.

In May 2019, the PJ had won by about 400 votes, but since the mayor died in March, a new election was called.

And this November 15, Peronism was defeated by Unión Vecinal, an alliance between the PRO and the judiciary by 89 votes.

Although the size of the district is incomparable with Río Cuarto, the result

.

Survey of Zuban - Córdoba, in Río Cuarto.

The survey was done between November 11 and 13.

Another question that adds uncertainty is

in a pandemic context.

Some local sources speculate with a presenteeism greater than 60%.

To facilitate the process, the authorities assure that they paid special attention so that the Rio Cuartenses vote, in the worst case, 10 blocks from their home.

Regarding the forecasts,

.

Two belong to consultants from the province that has been publishing national measurements for some time.

One is

, who, in association with the Zuban firm, publishes surveys that even circulate in Casa Rosada.

At some point he also measured for provincial Peronism.

Survey of CB Consultora in Río Cuarto.

It measured between November 9 and 13.

The

survey

, of 400 cases between November 11 and 13, gives Llamosas an initial advantage of almost 6 points (29.1%) over Abrile (23.4%), with more than 25% of "does not know / does not answer".

Projected the undecided, it takes it to 37.6% vs.

33.6%, always with the official candidate at the top.

Another study is from

.

The firm that

directs

and has been publishing a ranking of governors and measured for the first time the head of the Buenos Aires government, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, throughout the country.

In Río Cuarto, it surveyed 425 cases between November 9 and 13, and also showed a difference in favor of Llamosas (38.4%) over Abrile (31.9%), with almost 10 undecided points.

Survey of Test Consultants.

The survey was carried out during October in Río Cuarto.

And finally, a study by

, from October, which ensures that 60.6% of Rio Cuartenses want a "change" and where Abrile has an advantage of about 7 points over the current mayor: 37.4% to 30.3% of Llamosas, with 15.2% of "ns / nc".

Local sources said they did not know the firm's background.

Regarding the political reading of Sunday's results, close to Schiaretti told

 that although "he supports Llamosas, he

, so he does not actively participate in the campaign nor does he plan to go to Río Cuarto. Furthermore, the governor limits his outings because he is a risk group and considers this to be a municipal election.