11/18/2020 19:03
Clarín.com
sports
Updated 11/18/2020 7:03 PM
After the first four rounds of the South American Qualifiers, the Argentine National Team was in second place in the standings, two points behind Brazil.
In total, the team led by Lionel Scaloni accumulates ten units, the product of three victories (Ecuador 1-0, Bolivia 2-1 and Peru 2-0) and a draw (Paraguay 1-1).
Although there is still a long way to go, the hopes of qualifying for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, which everything seems to indicate will be Lionel Messi's last, are well under way.
For this reason, there are those who are already beginning to look at the table and do accounts with the calculator.
How many points does Argentina need to get a place in the next World Cup?
Although it is not feasible to predict the future, it is possible to establish a comparison with the last editions of the South American Qualifiers, whose current format was implemented for the first time for the classification of the World Cup in France 1998.
Unlike the previous system, where there was a group stage, for more than two decades the ten teams have played each other against each other and under the round-trip system.
In this way, the 18 dates are formed, with exceptions where some country already obtains the direct classification and avoids the Qualifiers (for example, Brazil in 2014 for being the venue of the contest), which means that there are two fewer days.
Once the final standings have been defined, the first four selected get a ticket to the World Cup, while the fifth must play a playoff against a team from another confederation to be confirmed (the last time, Peru faced New Zealand, from the Confederation of Oceania Soccer).
In that sense,
the threshold of points required to reach fourth place is usually around 27
.
Argentina should aim for a similar score to secure a place in Qatar.
Thus, logic indicates that with 17 more points -or 18, if you want to have more margin- it would be enough to guarantee the objective.
Something that seems accessible for Argentina with 14 games to go.
Gallardo celebrates his goal against Uruguay in the 2002 Korea-Japan Qualifiers, when Argentina qualified comfortably.
(Photo: AP)
Heading for the 1998 World Cup in France, Chile came in fourth place with 25 points (there were 16 dates, since Brazil was the current champion and obtained the privilege of qualifying directly).
For Korea-Japan 2002, and again with ten teams, the fourth position went to Paraguay, which added 30 units in 18 days.
In the following Qualifiers, prior to the 2006 World Cup in Germany, Paraguay was again fourth, with 28 points, also on 18 rounds.
For its part, Argentina reached South Africa 2010 after finishing fourth in the Qualifiers, again with 28 points.
In the classification for Brazil 2014, that position went to Ecuador, which added 25 units in 16 dates.
Meanwhile, in the last Eliminatory, Colombia took fourth place after getting 27 units in 18 dates.
On the other hand, comparing the first matches of the Albiceleste team in the different Qualifiers,
the current ones represent the second best start in terms of points obtained
.
An achievement shared with the start of the road to Germany 2006, when he also achieved 10 units in the four opening dates.
Meanwhile, at the top of the podium is the edition disputed between 2000 and 2001 when, under the guidance of Marcelo Bielsa, the team had a perfect score until the fifth day (in the sixth, they lost to Brazil 3-1)
In contrast, the qualifying rounds prior to the 2018 World Cup in Russia and the 1998 World Cup in France represented the worst starts for the National Team, both with five units.
Messi's joy after having secured Argentina's qualification for the World Cup in Russia with his three goals in Ecuador.
(Photo: AP)
In this way, Lionel Messi and company have more than valid reasons to feel closer to Qatar.
Logically, around 28 points should be enough for them to occupy at least fourth place.
Of course there are still 14 dates left and anything can happen.
The remaining matches
Date 5: 3-25-21 vs.
Uruguay (L)
6th date: 3-30-21 vs.
Brazil (V)
Date 7: 3-6-21 vs.
Chile (L)
Date 8: 6-8-21 vs.
Colombia (V)
Date 9: 2-9-21 vs.
Venezuela (V)
Date 10: 7-9-21 vs.
Bolivia (L)
Date 11: 10-07-21 vs.
Paraguay (V)
Date 12: 10-12-21 vs.
Peru (L)
Date 13: 11-11-21 vs.
Uruguay (V)
Date 14: 11-16-21 vs.
Brazil (L)
15th date: 27-1-22 vs.
Chile (V)
Date 16: 1-2-22 vs.
Colombia (L)
Date 17: 3-24-22 vs.
Venezuela (L)
Date 18: 3-29-22 vs.
Ecuador (V).