Eduardo Paladini
11/22/2020 4:23 PM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 11/22/2020 4:23 PM
A
new national survey
ratified the November trend, anticipated last week by Clarín: after long months of decline,
the Government showed a rebound
in its numbers.
Mild, but consistent in most studies.
In the case of the last national
Management & Fit
poll
, the improvement was also reflected in a sensitive parameter: electoral numbers.
Although the opposition is still at the top, facing 2021, the Frente de Todos narrowed the gap.
The consulting firm headed by
Mariel Fornoni
, with clients on both sides of the crack, conducted a telephone survey of
2,200 cases
, between November 14 and 19.
The results were presented with a +/- 2.1% margin of error.
Before entering the voting intention, some cadres confirmed
some relief
for the ruling party:
National Management & Fit Survey, November.
The level of approval of the national government.
- Pessimism about
how the economy will be
in one year fell from 60.2% to 56% and optimism rose from 23.3% to 24.9%.
- National
discharge approval
grew from 38.6% to 40.9% and disapproval fell from 53.1% to 50.4%.
- President
Alberto Fernández
also reversed the balance of his image: it went from + 39% and - 41.8% in October to + 41.1% and - 37.8% this month.
With this improvement, he returned to second place among the most valued leaders in the
M&F
table
, below the head of the Buenos Aires government,
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
.
National Management & Fit Survey, November.
The image of the main leaders.
Later, already at the end of the study,
the question of general voting intention appears
: "If tomorrow there were elections again, would you feel more inclined to vote a candidate favorable to the government of Alberto Fernández or an opposition candidate? ".
A
48%
said that "would vote for
opposition candidate
Alberto Fernandez ,
" as long as a
38.5%
"vote for a
pro candidate for the government
of Alberto Fernández".
The
remaining
13.5%
"don't know / don't answer"
.
The gap
in favor of non-official candidates
narrowed by almost 5 points in one month
: in November it reached 9.5, while in October it was 14.3 (50.7% favored opposition representatives and 36 , 4% by those of the Frente de Todos).
Regarding the electoral numbers for this month, there are
three major cuts:
by gender, by age and by economic level.
The opposition prevails
in all variables,
except one
:
National Management & Fit Survey, November.
Voting intention for 2021.
- Among
women
, the opposition wins
47.1% to 36.5%
.
- Among
men
,
49% to 40.8%
.
- Among those
under 40
years
of
age,
47.8% to 38.7%
.
- Among those
over 40
,
48.1% to 38.3%
.
- Among those with
a medium economic level
,
49% to 38.9%
.
- And among those with
a high economic level
,
60.3% to 30.4%
.
- While the
Frente de Todos wins
among those of
low economic level
:
44.4% to 36.7%
.
In all cases complete the "ns / nc".
As
Clarín said
, this circumstantial opposition majority has a warning ahead and it is how the dispersion of its offer can influence.
If the
M&F
numbers are analyzed
, the Frente de Todos would not be that far from achieving the floor with which the officialdom usually win the intermediate legislatures, when they barely exceed 40 points.
The question is whether the record polarization in 2019 will continue next year.
If this happens, the beneficiary could be Together for Change, as the main anti-K space.
