Political situation
Written by: Lin Jian
2020-11-24 18:11
Last update date: 2020-11-24 18:11
Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor will announce the fourth policy address in her term tomorrow (November 25). When she met with reporters today, she was the first to speak out, saying that there will be about 200 new measures in the report, but because of the epidemic, it has already spent 310 billion yuan to save money. Economic, so most of the measures are expected to not involve large-scale expenditure of public funds, but rather integration.
It is generally believed that if Carrie Lam wants to fight for re-election, this policy address is the "last chance" to fight for performance in front of Beijing and Hong Kong people.
But unlike previous years, the news that came out on the eve of the policy address this year was relatively scarce. Could it be that she concealed a "secret weapon" in the 200 new measures?
▼Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor's meeting with reporters on the eve of the policy address▼
The epidemic and the economy hit the last chance for performance
This year’s policy address was originally scheduled to be issued in mid-October, but Lam Cheng stated two days before the announcement that in response to this year’s epidemic and social unrest, many people wanted to see the future of Hong Kong’s economy, so he proposed to the central government some measures to inject new impetus into Hong Kong’s economy. , Decided to spend more time discussing with the central ministries and commissions, so the announcement was delayed.
But this also means that Carrie Lam will have more time to formulate the content of the final report. In a disguised form, the outside world will have higher expectations for this policy address.
From a political perspective, this year's new crown pneumonia epidemic has ravaged the world. From the perspective of "disaster politics", dangers can be organic. Major natural and man-made disasters are often good opportunities for political leaders to show their abilities.
The outbreak in Hong Kong at the end of January this year coincided with the ebb of the law amendment, which forced the social atmosphere to "cool down".
The political circle generally expects that Carrie Lam can restore people's hearts by dealing with the epidemic.
However, in the early stage of the outbreak, Lam Cheng hesitated about border control issues, responded to demands with a politicized approach, and the mask issue failed to meet public expectations. Popularity fell further and fell to 18.2 points (February 17-19, Hong Kong Institute of Public Opinion) the lowest point.
The epidemic subsequently repeated itself, with the second, third, and fourth waves, which were accused of being related to quarantine loopholes.
Economic activities are also difficult to restart. Recently confirmed cases have rebounded to nearly a hundred new cases every day. Customs clearance with the mainland has been resumed, and Singapore’s tourism bubble has all been hit by accident. The Lam Cheng government’s ability to suppress the epidemic has been questioned.
Another key issue is timing.
There is still a year and a half before the election of the chief executive in 2022. It is neither short nor long. If you intend to fight for re-election or race for the throne, you need to work hard to show Beijing the determination to manage Hong Kong well.
A person from the establishment explained that the two sessions (the National People's Congress and the CPPCC meetings) a year before the chief executive election year were traditionally an opportunity for the central government to "intensively investigate" the candidates for the chief executive in Hong Kong.
Because the NPC and CPPCC are the annual events of China’s politics, most of Hong Kong’s political and economic celebrities gathered in the capital to meet with Beijing officials. Whether at meetings or informal occasions, Beijing officials will more or less ask about their views on the candidate for chief executive; Begin to discuss potential chief candidates.
In other words, if you intend to compete for the position of chief executive in 2022, you will need to accumulate prestige before the two sessions next year, and you will have a higher chance of winning the favor of the central government.
In short, for both Hong Kong people and Beijing, Lam Cheng’s policy address is an important "second attack" opportunity, or even a "last blow", allowing her to regain performance and show how the government can lead Hong Kong. Out of the woods.
If Carrie Lam failed to "turn the tide" this time, fighting for re-election could be considered "frozen."
The fourth wave of the new crown pneumonia epidemic recently broke out.
(Photo by Ou Jiale)
Will there be less news outflow this year?
In the past one or two weeks before the release of the policy address, the major media will continue to report internal news related to the policy address, and some policies even have considerable details before they are announced.
However, this year’s outflows are mainly related to the Greater Bay Area, interconnection with the mainland’s financial level, and the Xiaohaowan housing project. Relatively little news has been made in the past and there are few details.
Before attending the executive meeting today, Lam Cheng said that this year's policy address will propose an additional 200 new measures, but at the same time do "expectation management", indicating that the current public finances are tight. After the budget and three rounds of anti-epidemic funds, The government has spent 310 billion yuan in public funds, and a large deficit is expected. Therefore, many new measures will be reformed, streamlined, and synergistic, hoping to provide better services without increasing the consumption of resources.
The only thing that can make the outside world look forward a little is that Lin Zheng mentioned in the policy address that there will be some measures to win support in Beijing and Shenzhen.
According to sources familiar with the matter, Beijing did have many measures to benefit Hong Kong, and Lam Cheng was included in this year’s policy address. However, when specific studies were conducted, it was discovered that due to the epidemic, if these measures are forcibly introduced, the "power" will be greatly reduced. Since the current epidemic has basically blocked the normal operation of the flow of people and logistics between the Mainland and Hong Kong, and most of the relevant economic links have been half "slowly driving", it is not appropriate to introduce too many new measures in this general environment.
It is foreseeable that this year’s policy address originally had a "new secret weapon", that is, Beijing’s series of measures to benefit Hong Kong, which are expected to benefit Hong Kong’s economy and people’s livelihood. However, as the epidemic continues to be forced to "shrink", as to how many measures still remain, It will be revealed tomorrow.
In addition, among the 200 new measures, whether the "secret tricks" will be hidden for the housing and other livelihood policies that the public is most concerned about, which is enough to make this policy address "observable."
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