In Germany, the number of coronavirus cases remains constant at a high level - despite partial lockdown.
Everyone is waiting for a downward trend before Christmas.
A current forecast, however, looks grim.
Munich - In October and early November, the
corona cases in Germany rose
According to the Robert Koch Institute * (RKI), the number of infections is currently leveling off at a high level.
So far there has been no sign of relaxation or a clear trend.
Although public life has been largely paralyzed since the beginning of November.
Bars and restaurants are closed.
The current corona measures in Germany are up for debate.
Federal and state governments now want to tighten the rules, the
lockdown until December 20
There is quite a scramble over various points, Christmas, New Year's Eve, school holidays, no-contact bans and mask requirements.
Who is allowed to meet whom, when and if so, how many at all ...
ECDC issues a bitter corona forecast for Germany
At the right time, the EU health authority ECDC is giving a
on the effectiveness of the "non-pharmaceutical measures" in European countries.
is not doing well.
where we predict that
current measures will not be sufficient
to result in a downward trend in the incidence of confirmed cases," said an ECDC report released Monday.
This also includes Germany.
ECDC report: scenario until Christmas
In a report, the
for each country
up to December 25, 2020.
“We continue to model a 'status quo' baseline scenario, assuming that all control measures in place at the beginning of November 2020 will continue until the end of the projection period,” explains the ECDC.
The mathematical model is based on epidemiological data and scientific knowledge available up to the time of publication.
The number of corona infections, deaths and the admission of Covid-19 patients to hospitals and intensive care units were taken into account in the analysis.
To clarify the forecast, the ECDC presents two different scenarios in one graphic:
In the first scenario - the 'status quo' base scenario - as already mentioned above, the corona measures, which were in force from November 10th until December 25th, are evaluated.
In the second scenario - April 1st scenario - the success of the measures is calculated if the country were to return to the level of the measures of April 2020.
Corona in Germany: A graphic from the EU health authority ECDC evaluates two scenarios.
© ECDC graphic screenshot
The ECDC admits that the results could possibly be due to the method and classification.
But the analysis shows suitable strategies in the model.
Updated projections of # COVID19 in the EU / EEA and the UK.
In this report we present slightly longer-term projections for each country, up until 25 December 2020.https: //t.co/LX46qCnUWU
- ECDC (@ECDC_EU) November 23, 2020
The ECDC estimates that the number of new infections in Germany will only
stricter corona measures
The number of hospital admissions and deaths would also decline.
However, the population would have to
to their behavior as in
(ml) * Merkur.de is part of the Ippen-Digital network
A doctor also gave a gloomy forecast for 2021, but also named an important turning point.