This is the assessment of Leumi economists based on data • Meanwhile, the state enjoys the strengthening of the shekel due to foreign currency loans • The stock exchange responded with declines to fears of tightening restrictions
The recovery from the corona crisis will be faster than the recovery from other crises, such as the financial crisis in 2008/09, according to Leumi's chief economist, Dr. Gil Michael Befman, and Dudi Reznik, the bank's interest rate strategist, in their weekly review.
Bank Hapoalim's weekly survey shows that the shekel is at a 12-year high against the dollar, and the combination of the strengthening of the shekel, negative inflation and an improvement in the economy's growth forecast, "moderates the increase in the ratio of public debt to GDP this year."
In fact, the State of Israel benefits from the strengthening of the shekel in all its foreign currency loans.
"The decline in economic activity with the outbreak of the corona crisis was sharp and immediate compared to the financial crisis in 2008/9, depending on the nature of dealing with a crisis of widespread health," Befman and Reznik explain.
According to the data accumulated so far, the low point of the corona crisis - a decrease of about 14% - came only two months after the outbreak of the crisis, while the low point of the financial crisis - a decrease of about 13.5% - came only a year later.
In addition, the exit from the current downturn seems sharper and faster than in the financial crisis: the level of revenue in September this year was 2.1% lower than in February.
However, during the financial crisis, it took more than 20 months for the economic recovery to a similar environment.
According to the two, "the longer the progress, which is already noticeable, towards the development of effective ways to continue and renew economic activity alongside the corona, through lessons learned processes, and the further medical advances - the faster the return to activity on the eve of the corona crisis will be faster." The financial. "
Iron more on credit
Befman and Reznik add that the unique nature of the corona crisis is also reflected in the fact that its negative effects are very uneven, and are more pronounced in industries that are directly affected by restrictions on activity - chief among them the congestion and social distance.
This is in contrast to industries that were hardly affected at all.
"Looking ahead, it is also important to consider the future effects of such differential damage, while creating a lack of economic infrastructure for cross-sectoral recovery while conditions allow," they explain.
It is further explained that the "broad" unemployment rate rose during the second closure, but reached a lower level compared to the first closure.
The increase in household optimism is reflected in a sharp increase in credit card spending.
Yonatan Katz and Lider Economic Capital Markets also point to an expansion in private consumption in the country, a continued increase in high-tech exports and an improvement in productivity in industry.
Katz and Leader estimate that despite the pressure to appreciate the shekel, "the Bank of Israel is not expected to change its monetary policy in the near future."
Tomorrow, the Bank of Israel will publish its decision on the interest rate for December, which implies that they, too, expect the decision to remain unchanged.
Fuel leaps
Meanwhile, the trading week began yesterday with declines in all the leading indices by up to 0.73%.
This, against the background of the Prime Minister's warning regarding the freeze on the removal of restrictions.
Delek Group recorded a jump of 7.5% due to its intention to issue the Levitan and Aphrodite gas reservoirs on the London Stock Exchange.
Delek Drilling's CEO, Yossi Abu, submitted a preliminary prospectus for the issuance of the reservoirs, with an estimated value of more than $ 2 billion.