NATO sees its survival safe with the departure of Trump from the White House

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Joe Biden in February 2015 in Munich.Michaela Rehle / Reuters

NATO will hold a videoconference meeting of the foreign ministers next Tuesday and Wednesday in which Mike Pompeo, the United States Secretary of State, will participate for the last time.

Pompeo's dismissal and Donald Trump's departure from the White House in January 2021 cause a sense of widespread relief in the Atlantic Alliance, whose survival has been questioned for the past four years.

Democrat Joe Biden's victory is seen as an opportunity to reinvent the organization.

The meeting with Pompeo is expected in a tense calm at NATO headquarters in the Brussels neighborhood of Evere.

Trump only has 50 days left in power, but the outgoing president has shown he is willing to baffle his allies until the last day of his term.

As soon as his electoral defeat was confirmed, Trump struck down the Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper.

His acting successor announced, to the surprise of the allies, a reduction in US troops in Afghanistan and Iraq.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned of the risk of "paying a high price if the withdrawal is done too early and in an uncoordinated manner."

But the warning fell on the deaf ear of a president embarking on a scorched earth strategy.

NATO's partners now see the time to regain a more stable relationship with the organization's main military power.

Official sources emphasize that the feeling of relief before the relief "is generalized."

And it transcends the possible affinities of the different governments with the two main US political parties "because what was at stake [in the elections of] on November 3 was largely the very survival of NATO."

Trump probably would not have succeeded in a second term - due to the congressional veto - to remove the United States from NATO, as he threatened in 2017. But the sources consulted acknowledge the fear that his re-election "could have condemned the Alliance to a paralysis that,

, could have been its end ”.

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, came to consider 12 months ago that the organization was in the phase of “brain death”.

The victory of Biden, a staunch defender of the Atlantic Alliance during his almost 50 years in politics, has restored tranquility to the organization's brand new headquarters, a building inaugurated in 2018 amid criticism of Trump for its millionaire cost.

“Biden has always believed in NATO for the defense of democratic and liberal values.

And the names he has chosen to direct his foreign policy like Antony Blinken [Secretary of State] and Jake Sullivan [National Security Advisor] are a nod to Europe, "says Jamie Shea, Chatham House analyst and NATO export spokesperson.

The Pompeo relay by Blinken is seen on the western shore of the Atlantic as the epitome of an ending nightmare and the beginning of a much more promising stage.

The return to traditional diplomacy will allow NATO to regain some stability after such a turbulent period.

Last year the Alliance did not celebrate its 70th anniversary in Washington due to the risk of a possible rudeness by Trump.

“European allies should also not wait for a honeymoon with Washington.

Biden is going to build bridges, but he is also going to be demanding with the spending commitment of 2% of GDP [assumed in 2014], ”says Bruno Lete, analyst at the German Marshall Fund.

Stoltenberg already warned last week, in an interview with German media, that Biden will maintain "the same expectations regarding the Europeans" as Trump, alluding to the pressure to redouble military spending, in particular, directed towards Berlin.

The changing of the guard at the White House also does not settle potential friction between NATO and the EU's developing defense policy.

At the headquarters of the European Commission, at the Schuman roundabout in Brussels, it is insisted that European projects are not only compatible but even complementary to those of the Alliance.

But France's push for strategic autonomy raises suspicions among allies such as Germany, Poland or the Baltics.

“The EU partners have to define their security and defense model;

between a Eurocentric one, one based on the relationship with Washington, or a hybrid one, ”says Lete.

Both at the headquarters of the Alliance and in the European institutions, the possibility is encouraged that with the Biden Administration the two organizations can be finally reconciled.

Washington's Europeanism in the next four years, according to these sources, may generate a synergy that will help NATO to foster political cooperation and reposition itself as a global force.

"It would be about moving Evere through Schuman," sums up a European source.

China and Turkey, two burning issues

Last summer, Stoltenberg set himself the goal of reinventing NATO as the largest political alliance on the planet and the only one capable of coping with China's unstoppable economic, military and technological rise.

However, "it is not clear to what extent Biden will want to involve allies in deterrence strategies and diplomacy with Beijing," says Shea of ​​Chatham House.

"The competition with China is expanding to more and more areas such as biotechnology, artificial intelligence, 5G networks, space technology ... and these are issues that are beginning to enter the NATO agenda," adds the analyst.

The relationship with Turkey - the second largest Army of the Alliance (335,000 military) - will be another matter that will require Biden to take a position.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has defied his allies by acquiring the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft defense system.

Despite multiple criticisms from Stoltenberg and US senators demanding sanctions from Washington on Ankara, the Turkish Armed Forces carried out the first tests of the S-400 last October.

The tension in the Eastern Mediterranean over disputes between Turkey and Greece over their hydrocarbons is another issue of conflict.

Erdogan threatens the Greeks with "paying a price if they do not get out of their way," while Macron takes a stand with Athens.

"Biden has a great opportunity to mediate with Ankara," reflects Shea.

Upon his arrival at the White House on January 20, Biden will have an even more pressing security and defense issue on the table.

The New START - a treaty signed in 2010 limiting the number of nuclear warheads deployed by Russia and the United States - the last stronghold of an arms control structure forged between Washington and Moscow for decades and which has collapsed in recent years, expires on February 5.

The Democrat will have 16 days to decide whether or not to extend a pact despised by Trump and that Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown himself willing to renew.