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Assassination of a nuclear physicist: 5 minutes to understand the renewed tensions between Iran and Israel

2020-11-30T23:04:24.085Z


Islamic Republic accuses Israel of murdering prominent nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh during opIranians now call him Doctor Martyr. Grizzly bearded, square shoulders and paunchy, scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was killed on November 27 near Absard, east of Tehran, in an attack attributed to Israel. The Islamic Republic paid a final tribute to the 59-year-old nuclear physicist on Monday. Who was this man? Why was he murdered? What will be the consequences of this attack? We take stock. Who wa


Iranians now call him Doctor Martyr.

Grizzly bearded, square shoulders and paunchy, scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was killed on November 27 near Absard, east of Tehran, in an attack attributed to Israel.

The Islamic Republic paid a final tribute to the 59-year-old nuclear physicist on Monday.

Who was this man?

Why was he murdered?

What will be the consequences of this attack?

We take stock.

Who was Mohsen Fakhrizadeh?

Was he, as General Hatami, Iranian Minister of Defense, presented it, this senior official who "managed the atomic defense"?

Or, as Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu said in April 2018, the head of a secret military nuclear program that Tehran has always denied?

Doctor in "physics and nuclear engineering", Fakhrizadeh was presented, after his death, as a vice-minister of defense and head of the Organization for research and innovation in defense.

"His work was important to him," his widow said on state television hours after the assassination.

He was a kind and compassionate husband, and he loved his country.

I ask (

Editor's note: those in charge

) to continue on the path he has mapped out so that his blood is not spilled in vain.

"

Tehran, November 30, 2020. Iranians pay tribute to the scientist killed on Friday.REUTERS / Wana / Iranian Defense Ministry  

The scientist was known to the United Nations: in December 2015, his name appeared in a document from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

This UN body considered that it had led, from the "early 2000s", "activities in support of a possible military dimension" of the Iranian nuclear program started "at the end of the 1980s" .

In March 2007, the same Fakhrizadeh was targeted by UN Security Council sanctions.

"He is the father of the Iranian bomb, of the nuclearization process for military use in Iran," explains Frédéric Encel, doctor in geopolitics, lecturer at Sciences-po and professor at Paris School of Business.

“On the other hand, he is an ideologue, he has always belonged to the Bassij corps

(Editor's note: Iranian paramilitary force founded by Ayatollah Khomeini in November 1979

), that is to say the most nationalist pillar of the regime.

"For two reasons, Tehran therefore loses" a centerpiece "of its system, judges the author of" 100 Words of War "(Ed. Presses Universitaires de France, 2020).

How did the attack unfold?

Knowing that he was threatened, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was protected by the Iranian authorities.

He was traveling with his wife in an armored car on Friday, alongside three vehicles from security personnel, when he was targeted in a car bomb attack followed by a shooting, according to the Defense Ministry.

Without citing sources, Iranian news agency Fars claimed that the assassination was carried out using a "remote controlled automatic machine gun" and mounted on a Nissan pickup.

The details of the attack are still far from known.

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"It was a very complicated assassination which was carried out remotely with electronic devices," Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, said on Monday.

"This commando operation is by far the most spectacular since the advent of the Khomein regime and strikes at the credibility of the government", observes Frédéric Encel, recalling that the victim "was a hyper-protected personality, working in a secure area".

"A reflection is currently being carried out in Iran on the security system", adds Thierry Coville, researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris), specialist in Iran.

Why does Iran blame Israel?

US media have called Fakhrizadeh "the number 1 target of Mossad", the Israeli intelligence agency.

Iranian international news channel Press TV claimed, citing an anonymous source, that the weapons used in the attack "bear the logo and specifications of Israel's military industry," the long-standing enemy. from Iran.

Israeli Intelligence Minister Eli Cohen said he did not know who was responsible.

"We have some clues, the monaféqines are surely involved and the criminal element in all of this is the Zionist regime (

Israel

) and the Mossad", advanced Iranian senior official Shamkhani on Monday.

Monaféqine, "hypocrite" in Persian, is the term by which Tehran describes the People's Mojahedin (MEK), an opposition group in exile responsible for numerous terrorist attacks in Iran in the 1980s. "Given the scale of the operation - arriving in the country with weapons, speaking Farsi… - one can think that there must have been internal complicity, ”agrees Frédéric Encel.

According to the geopolitologist, the Iranian accusation is based on "two things".

First, "a real paranoia of the Iranian regime which operates in a region where many states are unfavorable or hostile to it".

The ultra conservatives who "try to win the presidency" in the June 2021 elections thus have an interest, according to him, "in pointing the finger at the external enemy".

“And the most convenient enemy is Israel,” notes Frédéric Encel.

On the other hand, “evidence” of Jewish state involvement exists.

“Extremely rare are the States capable of having intelligence and action services capable of carrying out commando operations of this type in a non-border and hostile country, and with success.

"

What would Israel's goal be?

Israel would be the state most threatened by an Iranian bomb.

Since his return to power in 2009, "Netanyahu has never ceased to alert the international community to the dangers of a potential Iranian bomb," recalls the political scientist.

And to cite as an example the four nuclear engineers killed between 2010 and 2012. Iran had, there too, accused its historical enemy, who had remained silent.

Thierry Coville does not believe that this type of action can slow down the Iranian nuclear program.

“We have seen it clearly with all these assassinations, with the explosion of the Natanz nuclear complex this summer (

Editor's note: attributed to Israel too

)… The program continues despite everything.

It could even strengthen the Iranians in their desire to develop it.

"

For this specialist in Iran, the objective lies elsewhere.

“One gets the impression that Israel wants to provoke Iran to respond militarily, which would legitimize an Israeli attack on nuclear facilities.

Especially since Trump, still in power in the United States, would have recently probed his advisers about a strike against a nuclear site in Iran.

Will this assassination complicate relations with Biden?

In 2018, Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the 2015 international nuclear agreement, which aims, in exchange for a gradual lifting of sanctions, to ensure that Tehran does not acquire nuclear weapons. .

The Republican's decision plunged the Iranian economy into a deep recession.

But since then, Joe Biden has been elected.

However, the Democrat has signaled his intention to resume dialogue with Tehran in early 2021.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has also shown his willingness to save what can be saved from the deal.

Does the assassination of the scientist change the game?

“This action radicalizes the Iranian conservatives, which can complicate any attempt by Biden to return to the 2015 agreement and renegotiate” with the Islamic Republic, judge Thierry Coville.

Political scientist Frédéric Encel, for his part, believes that Iran will not go back.

The sanctions imposed or reimposed by Washington have considerable economic and social effects and the country "has lost in power."

“Iran needs a lifting of US sanctions.

"

Is there a risk of escalation in the area?

Hassan Rohani on Saturday promised a response "in time" to the death of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

Not enough to provoke a war for all that, argue the two specialists we interviewed.

And to cite the example of the elimination of General Qassem Soleimani, a key figure in the Iranian regime killed in an American raid in Iraq in early January 2020.

In retaliation, Tehran sent missiles to an American base in Iraq.

“There were no deaths,” recalls Frédéric Encel.

Faced with the United States, what can Iran do to retaliate?

What about Israel?

The blows will be too terrible, it is not imaginable.

Iran does not have the capacity to win, ”says the geopolitologist.

On the other hand, a resurgence of tensions on the Israeli-Lebanese border and attempted attacks are possible, he admits.

“The majority of Iranians do not want war, opines Thierry Coville.

There is a lot of anger in the country, but since January everything has been done not to provoke an American attack.

They are not going to ruin everything now.

"

Source: leparis

All news articles on 2020-11-30

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