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Interview with Ma Shiheng | The unemployment rate has not peaked! Hong Kong epidemic becomes a lonely city and hopes to clear it and switch again as soon as possible

2020-11-30T01:27:45.875Z


The new crown pneumonia is the biggest black swan this year. The epidemic situation in many places around the world is still severe. The news of successful vaccine research and development has recently spread, which has made market sentiment more optimistic. However, the former Director of the Commerce and Economic Development Bureau Ma


Special interview

Written by: Kwong Yueting

2020-11-30 07:00

Last update date: 2020-11-30 07:00

The new crown pneumonia is the biggest black swan this year. The epidemic situation in many places around the world is still severe. The news of successful vaccine research and development has recently spread, which has made market sentiment more optimistic.

However, Ma Shiheng, the former Secretary of the Bureau of Commerce and Economic Development, said in an interview with "Hong Kong 01" that it is still some time before large-scale vaccine injections. In addition, the vaccine has not yet solved the two major problems of storage and logistics. He can only say "it is better than not. .

Under the raging epidemic, he estimated that the global economy will recover as soon as the middle of next year, while the Hong Kong economy will rebound as soon as the second half of next year.

At the moment, the most important task of the Hong Kong government is to achieve "zero diagnosis" locally, and then restart the switch to restart the economy and get out of the "isolated city" pattern.

The epidemic situation in many countries is still severe, and Ma Shiheng predicts that the global economy will not recover until the middle of next year at the earliest.

﹙Profile Picture﹚

Epidemics in many places in Europe and the United States have been repeated, and some countries have to close cities to deal with a new wave of epidemics.

Ma Shiheng said that because the epidemic situation in many countries is still severe, the global economy is expected to recover as soon as next year. As an export-oriented economic system, if the global economic gap will also affect Hong Kong's economy, he is concerned about Hong Kong's economic prospects in the next few quarters. Feeling not optimistic, coupled with the poor local consumption atmosphere and fewer visitors to Hong Kong, the economy will not rebound until the second half of next year at the earliest.

"The (economy) has begun to stabilize slowly, but there are some major conditions for recovery, including the need to switch, and if there is no switch, there is no new money. It is really a local internal circulation route."

The unemployment rate is expected to deteriorate next year

The fourth wave of the epidemic in Hong Kong is fierce, and the number of confirmed cases continues to increase rapidly.

Ma Shiheng believes that the epidemic continues to repeat, the tourism industry has not recovered, and the catering industry has not recovered. He estimates that many restaurants will close after the Lunar New Year, which will further increase the unemployment rate next year. "Today is more than 6%. There are signs of deterioration, and I don’t think the unemployment rate has peaked!"

In order to alleviate the unemployment problem, the government has launched two rounds of job-guarantee programs, which cost more than 100 billion yuan. However, Ma Shiheng bluntly said that the plan is not a good recipe, because it is a temporary solution and it consumes a lot of fiscal reserves.

"It is always easy to spend money, but difficult to make money. One more job guarantee will make the warehouse poorer and less effective. The permanent solution is to "clear" and switch again!" Therefore, the government needs to do its best to stop it. With the spread of the epidemic, the number of confirmed cases will be "cleared", and then it can be switched on and off like Macau, and social commercial activities can be restarted.

"Because we are already like a lonely city, with ponds and ponds of fish. This is not enough. The fundamental solution is to clear them, switch them off again, and restart commercial activities in society."

The catering industry has also been unable to recover, and Ma Siheng expects that the unemployment rate has not peaked.

﹙Profile Picture﹚

At present, there are voices in the community asking the government to implement mandatory testing for all people. Ma Shiheng thinks that it is quite difficult. "In fact, I believe the government wants to do it, but there are a lot of problems. I think it needs to be tested by specific groups. It seems that the recent taxi driver groups are good. Direction.” He said that he is not a medical expert and dare not give too much advice, but if the epidemic continues, the economy will be hit, hotels, catering, and large companies will all be affected, while small and medium-sized enterprises will suffer heavy losses. .

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The three major expenditures are difficult to reduce and the tax base needs to be expanded

In fact, Hong Kong's economy is in a trough, and the income of the warehouse will also be greatly reduced.

Ma Shiheng pointed out that a sudden epidemic caused the government to spend 300 billion yuan in fiscal reserves. "The problem is not just 300 billion yuan. In 2003, there was a 60 billion yuan fiscal deficit. The second year has rebounded, but now the problem is that I see In the next two years, there may be a fiscal deficit."

He pointed out that the main taxes of the Hong Kong government are corporate profits tax, salaries tax, stamp duty and land sales income. When the economy is not very good, profits tax, salaries tax, land sales income and other taxes will be reduced, almost every major tax. All will fall. Only stamp duty revenue is better. Therefore, he expects that the Hong Kong Government will continue to have fiscal deficits in the next two years.

"You will find yourself changing from a very rich person to a less rich person. If you are not called a poor person, you will be very rich."

The economy is hit by the "epidemic wind", and the income of the warehouse has been greatly reduced. Ma Shiheng called for the change of Hong Kong's economic structure.

(Photo by Li Zetong)

To improve the financial situation of the warehouse, it is nothing more than two ways to increase revenue and reduce expenditure.

Ma Shiheng sighed that the government has three largest expenditure items, namely health care, education, and welfare. Each item costs 70 to 90 billion yuan a year. These expenditures are "hard-cut" and there is no room for reduction.

When the economy is poor, more welfare expenditure is needed; when the epidemic is raging, medical expenditure will increase significantly; education is an investment in the future and cannot be reduced.

Therefore, he recently proposed to levy sales tax to broaden Hong Kong's tax base.

"Now that the government spends more than 500 billion yuan every year, the expenditure will be more and more. If other new taxes are introduced, only a small number of people may pay. This is futile. The sales tax has a wide range of dimensions. Everyone has to pay. Taxes are good. Stable.” Ma Shiheng sighed that the introduction of a new tax is easy to talk about, but it is really difficult to do.

Finally, he called for changes to Hong Kong’s economic structure. It must rely on finance and tourism and change to the Swiss model. In addition to owning these two industries, there are also many high value-added industries, such as watch industry and agriculture. , Medicine, information technology, food industry, etc., "Many people say that they can’t transfer the type. There is an example to let everyone know that we are very powerful. If you need it, you can switch to it. The masks you wear are an example. In 2003, we will fight against SARS. Masks, go to the mainland to buy masks. Today, our masks are self-sufficient and have a surplus. This is industry!"

Ma Shiheng at home 01 Video

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2020-11-30

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