Tesla: Elon Musk has already shot a Model S into space - and the electric car manufacturer's share price no longer knows any limits
Photo: REUTERS
Tesla plays in its own trading class: The price rise of the stock market favorite is so steep that analysts find it difficult to explain and investors are ecstatic.
Since the beginning of 2020, the price of Tesla shares has more than quintupled: The electric car manufacturer, led by Elon Musk, which carried out a share split of 1: 5 in August, has a share price of around 580 US dollars at a stock market value of around $ 550 billion.
That is more than twice as much as the three German car manufacturers VW, Daimler and BMW combined.
A difference that can hardly be explained even for analysts of large investment houses.
Adam Jones, renowned auto analyst at the US investment bank Morgan Stanley, has at least tried it now.
Morgan Stanley had watched Tesla's price rally for months without comment - and then raised Tesla's price target by 50 percent in mid-November, from $ 360 to $ 540 per share.
For his 50 percent upgrade, Jones provided a reason that directly targets the business model: Tesla is facing a profound change in its business model, writes Jones.
The electric car manufacturer is currently changing from a simple car salesman to a company that is generating an ever increasing share of sales with software and other services.
In other words: Tesla is a mixture of automaker and software company, which can achieve much higher profit margins with its software and IT services than by selling cars alone.
Selling software services more lucrative than selling cars
Just a few months ago, Tesla made the step from electric car pioneer to mass manufacturer with its Model S.
And now, according to Jones, the next step is pending: Tesla already holds the key to becoming a global seller of software and IT services.
Selling software services traditionally generates much higher profit margins than selling formed sheet metal and motors.
In the case of a classic car manufacturer, the profit expectations can, in simple terms, be calculated by multiplying the number of cars sold by the sales price.
This formula is still the basis for the stock market valuation of Daimler, BMW, VW and Co.
At Tesla, on the other hand, there are revenues from software services, which, according to Morgan Stanley, currently account for almost 2 percent of total sales.
By 2030, according to the forecast, this share is likely to rise to more than 6 percent - and thus account for up to 20 percent of future Tesla profits.
Due to its brand strength and its technological edge, Tesla is in the process of converting its customers into loyal subscribers, argues Jones.
Tesla is already offering its customers various software-based service packages, such as chargeable performance upgrades or a premium infotainment package.
Up to 200 Tesla could convert an average of around 100 dollars with each user of such software services - per month.
The high level of brand loyalty among Tesla fans suggests that many Tesla buyers will also become long-term subscribers - who are willing to pay higher prices for them.
Retail redefined
This additional business area with lucrative software services will be responsible for a growing share of the group's profits in the future.
The template for this is provided by Apple: Once you have got used to the Tesla world and its services as a paying subscriber, you will be reluctant to switch to another world of cars and services.
This is bad news for VW, Daimler and BMW.
With this business model, according to Jones, Tesla is redefining the auto trade: with every car sold, the group wins a new customer for its IT services, the scope of which can be significantly expanded.
It is possible that one day there will be Tesla TV, or hotel and travel offers that only flicker on the large screen in the Tesla cockpit.
Tesla will therefore not be comparable to VW for years, but rather to VW plus SAP plus Booking plus X.
Goldman Sachs looks more towards the S&P 500
In contrast to Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs sees the reasons for the latest price explosion more in the fact that Tesla will be included in the US benchmark index S&P 500 on December 21, 2020 - and as a newcomer there will immediately be among the ten most valuable companies.
Of the 189 large asset managers that Goldman looked at in a study, 157 money managers were not yet invested or not sufficiently invested in Tesla.
In order to correctly map the future S&P 500, they are therefore forced to buy Tesla shares.
In this way, up to 8 billion dollars could be invested in Tesla shares, argues Goldman - provided that the asset managers map Tesla according to its index weight in the S&P 500.
Many private investors have been speculating on such a surge in demand for months - which has further boosted Tesla's valuation.
Tesla's market value is already above the $ 500 billion mark.
The price / earnings ratio of Tesla is currently 1100 - at Volkswagen the P / E for 2020 is currently around 20. Anyone wondering about this enormous valuation advantage can use the Morgan Stanley valuation in the future: Tesla is worth much more than every other auto company because Tesla is also much more than an auto company.
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