Almost solved the most difficult political process, that of Budgets, the Government is already facing the other great challenge of the legislature: channeling the Catalan conflict.
Nothing will begin to move until the prisoners of the
procés
are not in the street, admit in private several members of the Executive.
However, the formula to achieve this raises doubts.
Pablo Iglesias, who has it clear, pressed this Monday and demanded in La Sexta the pardon so that they are released "as soon as possible", even before the Catalan elections.
The socialist sector of the Government does not see the operation simple, with the probable contrary opinion of the Prosecutor's Office and the sentencing court.
Once the majority of the investiture has been recomposed and reinforced, which has gone from the 167 yeses that Pedro Sánchez had in January to the almost 190 yeses that the Budgets will have, the Government will now focus on how to consolidate the profound turn that is taking place in Catalan independence movement, especially in the ERC leadership, according to the most widespread interpretation within the Executive.
The negotiation of the Budgets, which a few months ago was considered almost impossible in the middle of the Catalan pre-campaign, has shown the socialist interlocutors that ERC has a real will to get involved in the governance of the country and above all that it believes that it is possible that a majority of the Catalan independentistas see with good eyes that turn.
If not, it would be unfeasible for them to have gone from abstention in the inauguration in January and "no" to states of alarm in May to "yes" to the Budget in November.
In this context, the ERC leaders have conveyed to their socialist interlocutors at the highest level that none of this will be consolidated until the prisoners of the
procés
, who have already been imprisoned for three years, begin to take to the streets.
The direct and most comfortable route for the Executive, that of the third degree, which is in the hands of the judges, is being definitively closed and the Supreme Court is about to reject it outright.
The other, the change in the Penal Code to reduce the penalties for the crime of sedition, is very slow and ERC has never opted for it as a priority.
It is underway, but it may take many months yet.
To arrive before the Catalan elections, in what would be a boost for the pro-independence sector that does not bet on the rupture - where it is not only ERC, but also PDeCAT, which will support the Budgets and has broken with Carles Puigdemont's group - the only way out is pardon.
This solution has been on the table in all the discreet conversations between the Government and ERC.
There are no specific commitments, and fewer dates.
The Executive is waiting for both the Prosecutor's Office and the sentencing court to pronounce at the end of the year or early 2021, and everything indicates that they will do so in an unfavorable way to the pardon, which would greatly complicate the Government's political decision.
But sources from both sides, both from ERC and the Executive, admit that the pardon is an increasingly solid option, although it will be the president, Pedro Sánchez, who will have the last word to decide if and when it is done.
The socialist sector of the Government has asked both ERC and United We Can not press in public at least while the Budgets were being negotiated, since the debate could be poisoned with this controversial possibility of pardon.
However, once the panorama of public accounts was cleared, Pablo Iglesias launched himself, although with a certain caution, to press for the pardon to become a reality shortly, and thus be able to consolidate the axis that he wants to deepen, this it is, a majority based on the coalition and the sum of ERC and Bildu.
Asked in an interview in La Sexta about the possibility that the Government finally approves the pardon of the
procés
prisoners
, the second vice president made it very clear that he is in favor and would like it to occur "as soon as possible", even before the Catalan elections on February 14.
"The pardons have processes that do not depend solely on the Government," he explained in reference to the Prosecutor's Office and the Supreme Court who have to give their opinion first.
“I don't like that the leaders of ERC, of Junts, and social leaders like
the Jordis
are in prison.
In my opinion they should be free.
At the time they are in prison, clemency is a government prerogative that has never ceased to be used in the history of democracy and has a series of procedures.
I would like them to be free as soon as possible, ”said the vice president.
When asked if it will be done before the Catalans, Iglesias replied: “When we are talking about the freedom of people who can play a fundamental political role in the dialogue, I believe that there can be no electoral calculations.
This is my opinion, the pardon procedures have a series of procedures that have to be completed and do not depend strictly on the political will of the Government ”.
The Minister of Justice, Juan Carlos Campo, has processed the pardon, which is continuing pending the political decision of Sánchez.
It seems difficult to arrive before the Catalans.
But much more complicated things have been seen in Spanish politics in recent months.