Smoke from the September fires in California partly hides San Francisco's Golden Gate.HAROLD POSTIC / AFP
More deaths from heat waves, easier transmission of infectious diseases such as dengue or malaria, lower crop yields, more population exposed to forest fires, more hours of work lost due to torrid temperatures ... Five years ago, the Paris Agreement was signed, which aims to keep climate change within manageable limits.
And five years ago the first report The Lancet Countdown was also published, which tracks the relationship between health and climate change.
And the indicators of the health impacts of global warming have continued to worsen in these five years.
One of these indicators is that of mortality due to high temperatures.
The report of the scientific journal
The Lancet
- in which around 120 international scientists participate - indicates that during the last 20 years there has been a 53.7% increase in heat-related mortality in people over 65 years of age, reaching a total of 296,000 deaths in 2018. Most of the deaths occurred in Japan, eastern China, northern India and central Europe.
In Spain, the oldest who died from heat in 2018 were 3,160.
Another indicator used by the scientists responsible for the study is that of the transmission of infectious diseases such as dengue, malaria and those caused by the Vibrio bacteria.
And according to the report, the ideal climatic conditions for its transmission are increasing decade by decade.
In the case of Spain, for example, those favorable circumstances for the transmission of dengue through the Aedes mosquito have grown by 46% if the period between 2014 and 2018 is compared with 1950-1945.
The study also points to a reduction in crop yield: "serious consequences are expected for populations that suffer from food insecurity."
One of the clearest indicators is the decrease in the growing time of crops.
In the case of Spain, the researchers argue that in 2019 the duration of the growth phase fell by 8.8% for corn, 6.2% for soybeans and 3.3% for winter wheat compared to the average for the period between 1981 and 2010. And what does this imply: "It means that the crops mature too quickly, which leads to lower yields," the researchers explain.
In the case of forest fires, the report notes that 128 countries in the world have suffered "an increase in the exposure of their populations to forest fires since the early 2000s."
And one of the countries that has seen the greatest increase is the United States, which has suffered a devastating wave of fires this year.
The study also points out that between 145 and 565 million people in the world face the threat of rising sea levels, which could cause displacement and migration.
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The authors focus throughout the report on the economic losses caused by extreme weather events linked to climate change.
For example, the decrease in productivity linked to these events, which is also increasing.
"There are no economic reasons not to act against climate change," sums up Ian Hamilton, executive director of The Lancet Countdown.
Like many other international organizations, the document insists on the need to link the economic recovery from the pandemic and the fight against climate change.
"2021 presents an opportunity to correct the course," they point out in the study.
But he also warns that "the window of opportunity is small" and if the response to covid-19 is not directly linked "to national climate change strategies", the world "will not be able to fulfill its commitments to the Paris Agreement," and health and health systems will be damaged ”.
In fact, they highlight that if the stimuli for economic recovery prioritize fossil fuels, “unwanted secondary effects” will be generated.
They remember, for example, the seven million people who die prematurely each year from air pollution.
"The same fuels that contribute to climate change also contribute to air pollution," explains Hamilton.
The report also addresses the relationship between the spread of existing and new infectious diseases and environmental degradation.
For example, explains Hamilton, "changes in land use are the main vector" of the jump from viruses to humans.
Furthermore, "both climate change and COVID-19 exacerbate existing inequalities within and between countries."
Although Hamilton warns: "no country is immune to the impacts of climate change."
Nor is any country immune to the coronavirus pandemic.
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