Israel looks into the abyss of the fourth legislative elections in less than two years

Half a year after its constitution to deal with the pandemic, Israel's unity government is on the verge of an induced coma.

The break between the prime minister, the conservative Benjamin Netanyahu, and his ally and defense minister, the centrist Benny Gantz, threatens to be staged this Wednesday in the Knesset (Parliament) in a vote to dissolve the Chamber and call elections in March 2021 They would be the fourth in less than two years.

Gantz appeared on television Tuesday night to hold the chief executive responsible for the consequences of the electoral advance in the midst of the pandemic if he does not unblock the approval of the budgets, paralyzed in 2020 and without a project yet for next year.

The centrist leader announced that he and his supporters of the Blue and White formation will vote in favor of the dissolution of the Knesset.

"Everything that is happening is because Netanyahu lies to the public and only thinks about saving himself from his court cases," he stressed.

The defense minister has decided to create a commission of inquiry in his department on the collection of illegal commissions in the operation to purchase several German submarines, in which close collaborators of the prime minister are involved.

The opposition leader - the also centrist Yair Lapid, who refused to agree with Netanyahu in May - has presented a bill to dissolve the Knesset, a constitutional mechanism that was already used in 2019 to end the first legislature of the series of elections with inconclusive results in the Jewish state.

Almost all opposition parties support the motion.

Gantz and his supporters now face the dilemma of saving the coalition at the last minute, if there is a favorable response from the head of the government's Likud party, or blessing the advance of the elections for the month of March.

To convince former General Gantz of the sincerity of his latest public statements in favor of unity in the Government "to contain the coronavirus, obtain vaccines and help the population economically," Netanyahu only has to jointly give the green light to the budgets for 2020 and 2021. The prime minister reserves the silver bullet of the approval of the State accounts to control the electoral process based on his personal interests.

Next month he is scheduled to face the formal start of his corruption trial, after being prosecuted for bribery, fraud and abuse of power.

The Likud leader should postpone the call to the polls until an effective vaccination and the recovery of the economy have returned a certain normality to the country.

According to Israeli law, if there are no budgets next March, the election call would automatically take place in June.

Despite the drama of the last hours, both Netanyahu and Gantz can still apply the emergency brake before peering into the abyss of the fourth legislative elections called since April 2019. The prime minister always has the option of processing budgets: to Those of this year, you have until the 23rd.

The head of Defense and former head of the Armed Forces can also vote in favor of dissolution and continue negotiating a way out, since the parliamentary regulation requires submitting the dissolution law to three more votes.

"This Wednesday's vote is only a preliminary step, but it may set an almost irreversible course towards early elections in March," says Barak David, a veteran political correspondent.

The electoral polls are unfavorable for both leaders, especially for the centrist Gantz, as they reflect the rise in the polls of the extreme right of former Minister Naftali Bennett, ready to collect the vote of discontent from the settlers of the settlements after Netanyahu resigned. to the partial annexation of the West Bank in exchange for normalization agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

The centrist Lapid has, in principle, the support of Labor deputies, including two ministers, and the pacifist left to push through the law on the dissolution of the Knesset, as well as the backing of secular conservatives led by former Minister Avigdor Lieberman.

In the group of deputies of the Arab Joint List, however, the figure of dissident Mansur Abbas has emerged, who after meeting with Netanyahu has refused to confirm whether he will vote for the dissolution, leaving in the air the achievement of an absolute majority of 61 seats in Parliament.

Favorable polls, despite the pandemic

“It is too early to seriously assess future possibilities.

The latest polls are conditioned by current situations that are unlikely to materialize when voters have to choose the ballot at the ballot box, ”argues political analyst Daniel Kupervaser.

Worn out after nearly 15 years in power and indicted in three corruption cases, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, struck the bell in March by winning the legislative elections at the head of the conservative bloc, but did not reach the majority sufficient to govern.

Benny Gantz, the general who led the Gaza war in 2014, ended up throwing in the towel by not being able to form an alternative majority and agreed to agree with Netanyahu to take turns at the head of the Government from November 2021. The ultimatum that he now launches points to that this alternation will no longer occur.

“Netanyahu's downfall is basically due to the image of his failure to manage the pandemic, in reverse to Bennett.

For the moment.

there is a lot of internal unrest in the Joint List ”, concludes his analysis Kupervaser.

“If there is no legal impediment against Netanyahu, he has the best chance of being re-elected, according to voting intention polls.

Above all, he seeks to avoid by all means the rotation in the position with Gantz at the end of 2021 ”.

Israel has once again plunged into political uncertainty as COVID-19 contagion cases rebound after the reopening of shopping centers and the progressive reincorporation to classes.

Those responsible for the Ministry of Health have already warned that a third national confinement will be inevitable if the rate of positives in detention tests continues to increase.