WASHINGTON.— President-elect Joe Biden will not only inherit a dysfunctional asylum system, but his first litmus test could be to tackle new migrant caravans fueled by the aftermath of recent hurricanes, the COVID-19 pandemic and extreme poverty. in the region, according to experts.
As part of his agenda for Latin America, Biden has proposed an investment of 4,000 million dollars in four years to promote development and security in Central America, and thus mitigate illegal emigration.
Its disbursement will require congressional approval, as did a similar 2015 plan that he helped manage valued at $ 750 million.
Several experts consulted by Noticias Telemundo warned this Wednesday that Central America faces a "perfect storm" for
the exodus of tens of thousands of migrants in the coming months
, as a result of hurricanes Eta and Iota that, according to the World Bank, could generate the displacement of up to almost four million people in the next decades in the region.
The Honduran Social Forum on External Debt and Development estimated last month that rebuilding that country will take more than a decade and cost at least $ 10 billion.
Hurricanes swept through areas already devastated by the economic depression and the COVID-19 pandemic before the rains arrived, rivers overflowed, and houses were flooded in foul waters.
Honduras lives an ordeal after the passage of hurricanes Iota and Eta
Nov. 29, 202000: 30
The effect in highly populated areas in Honduras has been worse than Hurricane Mitch 22 years ago - there are streets where you can only advance with paddles - and a re-outbreak of COVID-19 is feared due to overcrowding in shelters.
“We do not have information that caravans are already forming, but we are sure that
with this acute humanitarian crisis in Honduras, there will most certainly be a new wave of migration,
” said Connor Walsh, head of Catholic Relief Services in Honduras. .
The humanitarian emergency, he explained, is the product of eight months of economic depression, the closure of factories and agricultural companies, loss of jobs, destruction of crops, and extensive damage to infrastructure.
"For many who lost absolutely everything,
there is nothing to anchor them to Honduras,
" he warned.
Honduras lives an ordeal after the passage of hurricanes Iota and Eta
Nov. 29, 202000: 30
Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a political think tank in Washington, said that Biden's proposals may not have an immediate effect but, if managed effectively, “they
could help stabilize the situation
if governance mechanisms are strengthened. democracy and economic opportunities ”.
In this November 11, 2018 file photo, Central American migrants, mostly from Honduras, climb onto a truck in Guanajuato as part of a caravan heading to the United States (Photo by ALFREDO ESTRELLA / AFP) (Photo credit should read ALFREDO ESTRELLA / AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images
Biden will govern not with a system of "threats and punishments" but through diplomacy, and his specific aid programs could win congressional endorsement in exchange for
strict accountability on the use of funds
, Shifter predicted.
Biden's idea, in his first 100 days in office, is to restore a "fair and efficient" asylum system, but many of his proposals will take time, and the needs of migrants are immediate.
Biden has also vowed to reverse much of President Donald Trump's immigration policies, and his challenge will be to do so by balancing humanitarian and border security obligations.
A possible flood of migrants, due to the perception that Biden would be
soft
on the immigration issue, would make negotiations with Congress difficult.
A year after the migrant caravans, thousands from Mexico still seek to achieve their American dream
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Biden's challenges
Once installed in the White House, Biden will need to rebuild the asylum system and, simultaneously, lean on Congress for long-term investments.
Jessica Bolter, an analyst at the Migration Policy Institute, noted that the effectiveness of the $ 4 billion package will depend on where and how it is invested,
but "the effect will not be immediate
.
"
To date, the most effective programs to curb the exodus have been those that expand economic opportunities so that
young people do not fall into gangs,
and those that help alleviate poverty in rural areas.
["See, hear, shut up." Absent children and teachers killed by "the boys" for a bad grade or an inappropriate comment]
Foreign aid hadn't generated as much discord until Trump ordered it to be suspended in March 2019, but Democrats and Republicans can still negotiate regional investments for refugee resettlement, according to Bolter.
For her part, Rachel Schmidtke, an expert on Latin American affairs for Refugees International, stated that, given the possible departure of new caravans from the Northern Triangle, even before Biden's inauguration,
Republicans in Congress “will have to recognize that something has to be done ”.
"
It is about exploring regional solutions, such as local processing centers, to alleviate the situation, trends show us that
the migration phenomenon will go on for a long time,
" warned Schmidtke, author of a report released this Wednesday that
urges greater protection of the asylum seekers.
Asylum seekers could get a positive response from the Biden administration
Nov. 9, 2020
Schmidtke considered that
Mexico should strengthen its asylum system,
offer more humanitarian visas, and expand legal channels for those who cross the country to the United States or who request asylum in its territory.
While immigration reform will be difficult to achieve in a polarized Congress, experts say Biden can immediately:
Eliminate the Stay in Mexico program, which since 2019 has returned 65,000 asylum seekers to that country.
Around 25,000 wait on the Mexican side for their appointments in immigration courts.
Eliminate an order from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that, under the pretext of slowing down the spread of the pandemic, expedites the deportation of undocumented immigrants, without giving them the right to seek asylum.
Cancel the asylum cooperation programs signed between the US and Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, which allow the deportation of asylum seekers to those countries.
Only the one in Guatemala was implemented, and it is suspended due to the pandemic.
[An appeals court blocks Trump's asylum restrictions]
For now, the immediate future of the migrants waiting under the Stay in Mexico program is not clear.
“People move in the Americas and around the world for many reasons.
The challenge, even for the incoming US administration in the face of the displacement of people in Central America, is to
ensure that those in need of international protection are identified
, ”said Christopher Boian, spokesman for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
Border uncertainty: asylum seekers remain stranded due to border closure
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A practically forgotten region
Trump has spiced up his foreign policy with touches of nationalism and economic protectionism, focusing his efforts on China, North Korea, and the Middle East.
Except in the area of immigration restrictions, sanctions against the Government of Venezuela, and the tightening of policies against Cuba,
Latin America has practically remained under the radar of his government
.
His first and only trip as president to Latin America occurred in November 2018, where he attended the G-20 summit in Argentina.
By way of comparison, his predecessors, Barack Obama and George W. Bush, had already made multiple visits to Mexico in the middle of their terms.
If Trump mentions Mexico, it is to emphasize border security and the fight against human and drug trafficking.
His government has managed to install 415 miles of border wall, most of which are replacement barriers and approximately 25 miles are brand new.
General view of the wall on the US-Mexico border, outside of Nogales, Arizona, on February 9, 2019. (Photo by Ariana Drehsler / AFP) (Photo by ARIANA DREHSLER / AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images
Instead, in his capacity as vice president between 2009 and 2017, Biden made a total of 13 trips to Latin America, and much of his tours occurred during the first term of the Obama Administration.
Four of those trips were to Mexico.
On a tour of Guatemala in January 2016, Biden met with the presidents of the Northern Triangle countries to ask them for more collaboration against illegal emigration, but also stressed that they would have Washington's backing,
because a stable region reduces illegal crossings. on the southern border.
His multifaceted approach to the region will compete with other priorities on his calendar, such as economic revival and fighting COVID-19 on US soil.
