Ignacio Miri
12/03/2020 17:49
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 12/03/2020 5:49 PM
Alberto Fernández hit a wall this week that he planned to find next year:
the electoral strategy
of the Frente de Todos.
The President, who will attend the preparations for the 2021 elections as
a privileged guest
who will be able to observe minute by minute how the places on the candidate lists are distributed by the partners of the coalition that brought him to the Casa Rosada, received the message from through Kirchner senators:
no government policy can harm next year's campaign
.
On Wednesday, a brief text came out from Cristina Kirchner's office in which the country was warned that the pro-government senators
were going to proceed with the deconstruction of the pension mobility formula
that Fernández had promoted
after a year of study
and, in that same act, redrawing the budget and complicating the chimera of reducing the fiscal deficit that Martín Guzmán had agreed with the International Monetary Fund.
The President and his minister, apparently,
had failed the calculations
and had walked on a path not authorized by the consortium of owners.
Sergio Massa often says that the formation of the Frente de Todos was possible due to two situations.
One is Mauricio Macri's retirement update formula.
The former president agrees with that view, and that is why he says that Massa and Cristina jointly organized the “Plaza de las Piedras”, as he calls the protest against the mobility reform that he promoted in December 2017, a few weeks after winning your mid-term choice.
Wednesday's episode
was a reminder to the President
that Cristina thinks on this point the same as Massa and that she is not willing to enter the election year
with a cut in pensions like the one designed by the Casa Rosada
.
Massa, Cristina and Máximo Kirchner also agree that the other policy of Macri that brought them together was
the increases in the rates of public services
, so we would have to wait for a similar path to that of the retirement mobility for the reduction of subsidies that he drew Guzmán for the summer.
As argued in the blocks of senators and deputies of the Frente de Todos,
Guzmán had already been warned in a meeting at the Ministry of Economy
that his plan to consider the next increase to retirees, pensioners and beneficiaries of social plans as a benefit on account the improvement planned for March would not pass the filter of Congress.
In reality, what they told him is that
he would not be accepted by the ruling party's parliamentary heads
, who
are already working for the campaign
in which they will seek to get more seats than they have today.
“They have to realize that this is a coalition, and
sometimes they forget
.
We warned Guzmán that this did not happen here, and the President knew it too, but
someone thought he was more alive than us
, "
one of the ruling party's parliamentary leaders
told
Clarín
.
According to the calculation they made in Congress, the retouched indexing formula will
imply an additional cost of half a point of total public spending
.
If the rate increase that Guzmán hopes ends the same as pension mobility, his plans to reduce the fiscal deficit in the next year will become impossible to fulfill.
How will this conflict continue?
The President complied with the imposition of his allies and the Senate will give him a half sanction next week on the new formula.
In Deputies, on the other hand, the ruling party will let the debate on the legalization of abortion pass and in the Frente de Todos they hope to be able to bring the project to the premises in the last week of the year,
if they get the support of the opposition
to be able make it law.
In addition to ruling on that damn project,
the other law designed with campaign criteria
also advanced in the Senate
.
In this case, it is about the plan, promoted by Cristina and Máximo Kirchner, to
take resources away from the City of Buenos Aires
and thus drown Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, the leader of the opposition best placed in the polls.
The project, they calculate in the block of senators of the Frente de Todos, will become law in the same session in which the retirement formula will be discussed, and from there it will be necessary to wait if the head of the Buenos Aires government
manages that the Supreme Court agrees to be the arbitrator
in the dispute between the City and the Nation.
