France threatens to veto the agreement on the post-Brexit era in the final stretch of the negotiation

European chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier in London this Thursday.TOLGA AKMEN / AFP

The agonizing end of the negotiations between the EU and the United Kingdom on trade relations after Brexit has entered this Friday in the phase of threats of veto, by France, and the discharge of responsibilities before a possible failure.

The two parties are still meeting in London where they maintain "an intense round of contacts" and hope to reach an agreement in the coming days, in time for it to be ratified by the European and British Parliament before the end of the year.

But from the EU capitals, particularly from Paris, the European negotiating team, led by Michel Barnier, is warned that any further concession to the British will meet with rejection from European partners.

The Government of Emmanuel Macron demands guarantees that the United Kingdom will not engage in unfair competition once the agreement is fixed and demands access for European fishermen to British waters similar to that enjoyed before Brexit.

If these conditions are not met, France will veto the agreement, which would lead to an abrupt commercial break on December 31, when the transitional period that maintained the status quo after the United Kingdom left the EU on January 31 expires. .

"We must prepare for the risk of a no-deal scenario," said Clement Beaune, French Secretary of State for European Affairs and Macron's right-hand man in everything related to the Brussels agenda.

Beaune warns that if the agreement is not good, they will oppose it.

And Paris reserves the right to make its own assessment beyond the recommendation in favor that the European negotiator may make on the final text.

"We will make our own evaluation of the draft agreement, we owe it to the French, the fishermen and other economic sectors," added the French Secretary of State.

The threat of a French veto forces Barnier's team to be extremely cautious in the fine print of an agreement that will be scrutinized by all European capitals.

The unease in some of them is evident, although, for the moment, none seem to share the apparent dislike of France.

"Negotiators have come to rest on some of the red lines of their mandate, but those red lines have not been crossed," concludes a European diplomat.

The threat of a French veto marks a symbolic finale to more than six decades of turbulent relationship between the United Reno and the mainland.

General de Gaulle's France was the country that in 1967 prevented the United Kingdom from entering the then-called European Economic Community.

And it kept the door closed until 1973, when it was finally allowed in.

Now Paris threatens to prevent a privileged commercial relationship, which would allow the neighboring country to place its products on the European market (more than 450 million inhabitants) without any export quota or any tariff.

In exchange for this privileged access, France demands compensation, among other things, in fisheries policy.

London wants to restrict access to its waters as much as possible for European vessels, which account for more than 50% of catches on those fishing grounds.

Johnson also wants European fishing quotas to be negotiated year by year, which would sow uncertainty in the European fishing sector.

Among the eight affected countries (France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Ireland, Spain and Portugal), the French fleet would be the most affected because it accounts for almost 30% of the total value of European catches.

For smaller fleets, such as Belgium's, the impact would also be brutal because it obtains 50% of its turnover in British waters.

The dribbling in that exchange of mutual concessions entered last Sunday in a final stretch as long as it was mined.

Barnier's team arrived in London, after a pause caused by a covid case, ready to file the latest disputes, relating to the control of state aid, the UK's regulatory alignment with the EU, the compliance monitoring system of the agreements and, the most symbolic and tangible: the fishing quotas in British waters.

Negotiation sources assure that progress has been made in all these controversial areas, although there is a final stretch that is as difficult as it is uncertain.

The Boris Johnson government has accepted, according to European sources, a non-regression clause, which would commit London not to lower labor, social or environmental standards below the level they were at at the time of Brexit.

But the United Kingdom is not committed to maintaining regulatory alignment as of December 31, when EU law will cease to apply in its territory.

Control of public subsidies

Brussels also demanded London's commitment to an a priori control of public subsidies, such as that applied in the EU, to prevent British companies from benefiting from anti-competitive state aid.

But London is reluctant, offering only post-hoc surveillance, exposing European companies to potentially doped competition until the problem is detected.

Brussels sees it difficult for Johnson to change his mind on this matter.

"It must be recognized that no country outside the EU has ex ante control of state aid," concedes a community source.

The European negotiating team seems to focus its emphasis on monitoring mechanisms on both sides of the English Channel on the fulfillment of the future trade agreement.

Brussels calls for a rigorous, reliable and expeditiously applied mechanism to ensure that London does not deviate from what was agreed after January 1.

That demand has gained traction after Johnson's announcement, earlier in the summer, of a market law that, according to the Commission, violates the Brexit agreements regarding relations between the British province of Northern Ireland and Ireland.

That alleged violation has triggered community distrust of London and, in particular, of the unpredictability of the Johnson executive.

Both Macron and his secretary of state, Clement Beaune, have hardened the tone since negotiations got back on track after brushing up against a breakdown over the summer over the British bill that affected Ireland.

France, in the eyes of British negotiators, presents itself as the last major obstacle to the deal.

European sources clarify, however, that the great unknown about the final outcome is Johnson's political calculation.

"The British Prime Minister has not yet fully weighed the payoff he can get from an agreement or a breakup," says a source involved in the negotiation.

Johnson cannot allow the deal to cause any rift between conservative forces, a risk that once crippled the Brexit pact and could cost the British leader dearly.

"Johnson does not forget that the last four conservative leaders - Thatcher, Major, Cameron and May - fell as a result of the relationship with the EU and almost always because of an internal revolt by the

."

If Johnson sees that danger, he could choose to break up the negotiation and blame the EU and the French Republic, the recurring enemy of the British monarchy.

Brussels hopes that the British prime minister does not see himself in that situation and, instead, prefers to go down in history as the leader who consummated Brexit and managed to become, with the permission of Paris, the only country in the world with unlimited access to the European market.