Brexit: Boris Johnson travels to Brussels for the last Brexit battle

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Not far apart?

Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen in London in January

Photo: HENRY NICHOLLS / REUTERS

It was in October of last year: the negotiations between Brussels and London about an exit agreement were hopeless, both sides were openly speculating about a dirty divorce - when Boris Johnson decided to go to a wedding hotel south of Liverpool.

There the newly elected British Prime Minister met the Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar.

The two men wrestled with each other for hours, and in the end they actually saved the Brexit process.

First of all.

It is true that Johnson had done something for the sake of the agreement that, according to his predecessor Theresa May, “no British Prime Minister” would ever do: he had agreed to a de facto customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.

But in this troubled autumn that was of little consequence.

As promised, Johnson had persuaded the EU to amend the treaty that had already been written.

That mattered to his Brexit-inspired party.

Then nothing.

Once again the Tories were at the feet of their leader.

The stage is set for one last stand

In the coming days Boris Johnson will travel again.

This time to Brussels, where EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will receive him.

Again, the situation couldn't be more delicate.

In three weeks, Brexit will finally be completed, the negotiations on a trade agreement that could prevent the worst upheavals on both sides of the English Channel are stuck in a dead end.

Companies are in panic mode, politicians at a loss.

The meeting at the highest level is really the very last chance to avert the Brexit meltdown.

Once again the stage is set for one final battle.

Just like Johnson wanted.

Will he do the impossible again?

Will it be celebrated again at home in London?

And if so: for what?

For wresting some last-minute concessions from the club of 27 and thus enabling an amicable separation?

Or for slamming the door behind him four and a half years after the Brexit referendum without a greeting or a contract?

Nobody knows, maybe not even Johnson himself.

It is clear that the 56-year-old urgently needs political success - or at least something that can be sold as such.

Exactly one year after his brilliant election victory, the head of government is under enormous pressure.

The disastrous management of the corona pandemic and several embarrassing affairs have seriously damaged his reputation.

According to surveys, not only the British are turning away from him, but increasingly also his own party.

It says there that Brexit should not be abandoned as well.

Several Tories are already openly threatening a vote of no confidence.

Johnson's government predicts Brexit chaos

There are many indications that Johnson is seriously interested in regulating future relations with the EU with a tailor-made treaty.

In the meantime, his own government, which has always criticized such things as panic-mongering, predicts that a breach of contract without a contract would lead to chaos at ferry and freight ports, billions in losses for the economy, rising consumer prices, bottlenecks in essential medicines and possible civil unrest.

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A scenario that the UK could hardly afford in normal times - and certainly not in the middle of a pandemic that has hit the country harder than most.

In his Tête-à-Tête with von der Leyen, Johnson will therefore do everything in his power to get some face-saving concessions.

He could benefit from the fact that the EU countries did not appear as united in the Brexit dispute as in previous years.

However, he will not have an easy game in the EU capital.

On the contrary.

Berlin and Paris have pulled together again

Even before von der Leyen phoned Johnson on Monday evening, she had spoken with Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron - and, according to diplomats, secured the duo's backing.

The disagreements between Berlin and Paris, which became apparent last week, have apparently largely been resolved.

In France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark, the rulers had recently feared that chief negotiator Michel Barnier might be too accommodating to the British under German and Irish pressure.

Paris even threatened to veto a contract if it did not sufficiently take into account the concerns of French fishermen.

But now, according to diplomats, Germany and France have pulled themselves together - especially since Berlin is by no means Johnson's lawyer in the EU.

Merkel is more conciliatory in tone than Macron's people are, but the Chancellor's position on the matter has always been clear: the top priority is the unity of the EU and, in particular, the protection of the internal market. 

"Welcome to Reality, Prime Minister"

The German industry sees it similarly - and emphasizes that the EU has more leverage.

"Both sides lose in Brexit, only the United Kingdom will lose significantly more," said Lisandra Flach, head of the Ifo Center for Foreign Trade, on Tuesday in Munich.

In 2019, Great Britain processed around half of its imports and exports with the EU.

But the EU exported only four percent of its goods and services to Great Britain and sourced six percent of its imports from there.

Even the European Parliament, which would ultimately have to ratify a treaty, has so far shown little desire to give in to British demands.

There they absolutely want to avoid giving British companies generous access to the EU internal market while at the same time undermining EU rules, for example on environmental protection and occupational safety.

"That would be unacceptable for us," says Manfred Weber (CSU), head of the European People's Party in the EU Parliament.

Weber considers the British insistence on national sovereignty to be misguided anyway.

»We live in a globalized world.

There is no longer any sovereignty here, ”says Weber.

"Welcome to reality, Prime Minister."

The usual suspects already sense treason

Part of this reality, however, is that Johnson will have to show some success in order not to be politically ruined in London.

In any case, the usual suspects who have already overthrown Theresa May have long since taken position.

Above all the Tory rebels united in the "European Research Group", who warn Johnson of a "sell-out" of the kingdom.

They are cheered on by Brexit newspapers such as the Daily Mail, which recently commented: "Should the Prime Minister betray the greatest democratic decision-making in Great Britain, his days are numbered."

Johnson's 80-vote majority in the House of Commons seems to be sufficient to secure his office in any case.

Last week, however, a vote on pandemic measures showed for the first time that the head of government no longer has enough party friends behind him in case of doubt.

Before his trip across the English Channel, Boris Johnson will have to weigh carefully how yielding he can be to Ursula von der Leyen.

The treaty with the EU is almost finished and the gaps that still exist can be bridged.

But the political price is high.

"There is always room for compromise," Angela Merkel recently informed everyone involved.

In Johnson's case, however, it has shrunk to the length of a wire rope.

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