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Merkel's last two battles at the head of the EU

2020-12-09T03:52:57.286Z


Brexit and the budget veto complicate the end of the German chancellor's European presidencyGerman Chancellor Angela Merkel in the Bundestag in Berlin this Tuesday.Markus Schreiber / AP The European Union celebrates this Thursday and Friday what should be the last European summit of the year and the final touch of the last German presidency with Angela Merkel at the helm. But the uncertainty about the negotiations of the post-Brexit agreement with London and the veto of Hungary and Pola


German Chancellor Angela Merkel in the Bundestag in Berlin this Tuesday.Markus Schreiber / AP

The European Union celebrates this Thursday and Friday what should be the last European summit of the year and the final touch of the last German presidency with Angela Merkel at the helm.

But the uncertainty about the negotiations of the post-Brexit agreement with London and the veto of Hungary and Poland to the budgets of the Union has sown the appointment with uncertainty.

And just 48 hours before the meeting, Brussels does not rule out that one or both negotiations will drag on beyond the summit or that another extraordinary meeting may even have to be convened before the end of the year.

The first assault will take place this Wednesday, with a meeting between the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson.

Both will try to close or, at least promote, the free trade agreement that allows to maintain a fluid traffic of goods between both sides of the English Channel after December 31, when the transitional period of Brexit expires.

The German presidency believes that, despite this meeting, uncertainty continues to reign.

"We want an agreement but not at any price," warned the Secretary of State for European Affairs of the German Government, Michael Roth, after presiding over the meeting of the EU Council of Ministers prior to the European summit.

Roth's words have sounded like a nod to France, which in the final stretch of the negotiation has shown itself to be the most demanding partner with London compared to the flexibility attributed to Berlin.

"It cannot be hidden that the two parties are still very far away," the Vice President of the European Commission, the Slovak Maros Sefcovic, in charge of monitoring the agreement to exit the United Kingdom from the EU, acknowledged this Tuesday.

But the climate has improved after the agreement reached on Tuesday by Sefcovic, and his British counterpart, Michael Gove, on the management of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland after the end of the transitional period.

After the pact, London announced the withdrawal of the clauses of a bill in which it reserved the right to unilaterally suspend the points of the exit agreement relating to Ireland.

The EU considered these clauses as a violation of international law so the London turn is interpreted in Brussels as a sign in the right direction.

"We have removed a major obstacle to the negotiations of the trade agreement," Sefcovic congratulated himself.

"Hopefully this momentum will continue," added the Vice-President of the Commission.

The negotiating teams, led by Michel Barnier on the European side and David Frost on the British side, are now preparing a detailed technical summary on the three outstanding problems (measures to avoid unfair competition, control mechanisms of the agreement and fishing quotas).

This map of the "negotiating situation" will be the basis for the, perhaps final, pulse between Von der Leyen and Johnson in Brussels.

Veto of Budapest and Warsaw

"This is a decisive week," Roth pointed out, referring to the other great problem of the German presidency, the Budapest and Warsaw veto of the EU budgetary framework for the period 2021-2027 and the recovery fund of 750,000 million to alleviate the economic crisis caused by the pandemic.

The two capitals are trying to abort the new protection mechanism of the rule of law.

Roth stressed that the German presidency is determined to seek an agreement "until the end [of the German presidency of the EU], until midnight on December 31".

The European Commission warned last week that, if the governments of Viktor Orbán and Mateusz Morawiecki maintain the veto, it will propose an alternative route to launch the European recovery fund without Hungary or Poland.

But Berlin assures that "negotiations continue behind the scenes" with these two countries and still see room for a unanimous agreement of the 27 partners.

“When we assumed the presidency in July, we said that we had to get out of this crisis with solidarity and all together.

And we continue working in that line ”, has settled Roth.

The devilish end of the year of the German presidency of the EU is completed by the pending projects of the new climate agreement, the reorientation of terrorist policy and the so-called pact on migration.

On these fronts, however, the German Chancellor has lights and shadows ahead of her.

The draft conclusions of the European summit include the support of the European Council "for a binding objective at the EU level to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990".

The text is not completely closed.

And it could still run into resistance from Poland or Hungary if they decide to also take climate policy hostage in their fight to abort the so-called rule of law protection mechanism.

But the community sources consulted agree that the agreement on 55% is very mature.

The conclusions of the summit also include a section on security that indicates that "it is essential to prevent radicalization and confront the ideologies behind terrorism and extreme violence."

A gesture towards France and Austria that demand a tightening of the antiterrorist policy and in border control after the recent attacks they have suffered.

The migratory pact, however, is still in the air. Berlin aspired to reach an agreement in principle during his presidency. And it will still try during a last meeting of interior ministers on December 14. But the resistance of the countries of the Mediterranean shore, including Spain, suggests that the migratory pact will remain in the chapter of frustrated projects of the German presidency.

Source: elparis

All news articles on 2020-12-09

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