Resources stocks turned into a big turn, cement stocks were accused of being attracted, but experts warned that they are not suitable for novices | Investment and financial management

Financial News

Written by: Wei Yingzhi

2020-12-10 21:40

Last update date: 2020-12-10 21:43

The new crown pneumonia vaccine is expected to be available in the short term in the middle of last month. After the news came out, it immediately triggered a capital rotation in the market and transferred to the old economic stocks. Resource stocks sensitive to the economic cycle have risen.

From the middle of last month to this Thursday (10th), Jiangxi Copper (0358) and Chalco (2600), which are engaged in the basic metal industry, increased by 23.4% and 34.3% respectively during the period, which performed better than the new economy stocks. .

With such a prominent trend in resource stocks, investors who have not yet entered the market will inevitably "look twice" at related stocks.

However, some experts clearly stated that resource stocks are more "difficult to play" and are not suitable for investment novices.

One of the reasons for the surge in resource stocks is that market participants expect that the pace of economic recovery will accelerate after the vaccine is launched.

At present, all parts of the world are slowly recovering from the "new crown pneumonia" pandemic. The news that the vaccine is in sight has further strengthened investor confidence.

The Chinese market is even more effective in fighting the epidemic. As early as a few months ago, the national economic engine was restarted and the economic momentum was restored. The provinces and cities resumed operations. Naturally, energy was consumed, which stimulated the market sentiment of resource stocks.

In the context of the gradual improvement of the economy, many big banks have sung about the prospects of resource stocks.

The report issued by UBS listed resource stocks among the four major investment themes in the China and Hong Kong markets.

"Reuters" recently quoted a Goldman Sachs report as saying that Western countries’ demand for steel has rebounded sharply, and China’s demand has gradually slowed. With the support of moderate supply growth, it is expected that the bull market for iron ore is expected to continue until 2021. Or there may be a situation where supply exceeds demand for three consecutive years, which shows that the market's pursuit of resource stocks will continue.

Another trigger for the rise of resource stocks is the weakening of the dollar.

Included resources such as iron, copper, and oil are all settled in US dollars. As the US dollar continues to find the bottom, the US dollar index has fallen below the 91 level, further pushing up resource prices and causing resource stocks to rise.

Two factors can be regarded as reasons why investors pursue resource stocks.

As the U.S. dollar continues to find its bottom, the U.S. dollar index has fallen below the 91 level, further pushing up resource prices and causing resource stocks to rise.

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Su Peifeng: Investors "speculate an economic recovery"

For the prospects of resource stocks, analysts expect to remain strong.

Su Peifeng, a strategist at CMB International, said that the trend of resource stocks will be strong in the early next year. The main reason is that investors are more confident in the economic recovery, which will drive the market. Resource stocks are particularly sensitive to the economic cycle. "Economic recovery" phenomenon.

However, investors should pay attention to the fact that there are many types of resource stocks, and they are mainly based on base metal stocks, and their stock prices are also showing strong momentum. The market prices of resources such as aluminum, iron and copper are now rising, and their impact on environmental pollution is greater than that of coal. The current situation of coal stocks is relatively weak and the prospects are poor because of the serious pollution caused by it and the mainland government has not supported the development of related industries.

"In fact, some of the resource stocks that are scattered are cement stocks." When asked what resource stocks are still optimistic, Su Peifeng said that cement stocks can pay attention to the fact that the economic recovery in the Mainland is relatively clear because the epidemic is under control earlier. Construction and infrastructure activities in the Mainland have returned to normal, so the recovery of the mainland cement stocks is relatively good. For example, Anhui Conch Cement (0914) has a lot of stock price corrections, and the location has been "a few attractive".

For novice investors, Su Peifeng bluntly said that resource stocks are "more difficult to play." Novices are not recommended to enter the market, because earnings and stock prices are very volatile and easily affected by different factors, making it difficult for novices to predict their direction.

However, if you are really interested in investing in this sector, you need to pay attention to the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China and the United States. It is advisable to pay attention to economic data from various places and keep up with the news of economic recovery, because resource stocks are very affected by the economic outlook.

Su Peifeng said that the trend of resource stocks at the beginning of the next year will be strong. The main reason is that investors have increased confidence in economic recovery, which will drive the market. Resource stocks are particularly sensitive to the economic cycle, so there will be a phenomenon of "speculation of economic recovery". .

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But recently, the parent company of CNOOC (0883) was blacklisted by the US Department of Defense.

As soon as the news came out on November 30, CNOOC's stock price plummeted by nearly 14% that day.

Su Peifeng pointed out that the market is still at a stage of worry. On the one hand, after being blacklisted, he is worried about whether the company's demand for petroleum products will be affected.

On the other hand, it is about financing. I worry about whether it will face difficulties when raising funds in the capital market. However, as far as the current situation is concerned, the specific impact is still unknown. "But the market is shocked first," so the stock price is relatively weak.

Su Peifeng reiterated that CNOOC itself is most sensitive to oil prices. If oil prices rebound more, it will in fact provide the rebound momentum for CNOOC's stock price.

However, the current situation is not very clear, so CNOOC is not optimistic about it.

He also stated clearly that he himself is not optimistic about the overall oil stocks, and believes that there is little room for a substantial rebound in related stocks.

First, the epidemic is still unclear, and the demand for the aviation industry is very weak; second, the rapid development of new energy vehicles, and the decline in demand for automotive fuel.

Huang Weihao pointed out that many resource stocks are currently in a state of adjustment after rising.

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Huang Weihao: Subsequent absorption after callback

Huang Weihao, director of the research department of Zhongwei Securities, pointed out that from a mid-line perspective, metal and resource stocks can be absorbed in stages by means of callbacks.

Regarding the situation in the past two months, some resource stocks have indeed "hyped a lot of speculation." The news about the launch of the vaccine is good for the market, and the epidemic may be under control. Investors are speculating on an expectation of economic recovery. "In addition, the prices of many metal resources are on the rise, such as Jiangxi Copper, Chinalco, etc., and they are now in a state of adjustment after rising.

But as far as the general direction is concerned, Huang Weihao said that, as pointed out in the Dahang report, the economy is expected to have a strong recovery next year. The rebound in economic activity will increase the demand for metals and resources. Therefore, resource stocks are observing the medium and long-term , The repeated upward trend will continue. Therefore, if there is no such thing as the "eat and follow" trend, you can enter the market in stages after taking advantage of the pullback.

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