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Trucks jam in Dover: the economy fears the "no deal"
Photo: Frank Augstein / AP
Hopes for a Brexit deal are fading, the economy is expecting customs chaos and the British Navy is already getting ready to protect its waters.
With fear, anger and great skepticism, politicians and retailers look to the last days before a possible hard Brexit on January 1st.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had "low expectations" that an agreement would be concluded on time, it said on Friday at the EU summit in Brussels.
You do not want to risk giving percentages about how likely you consider a negotiation success, said von der Leyen, according to consistent information from EU circles.
But she does not want to raise expectations: »The probability of a 'no deal' is greater than that of a deal«.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was similarly pessimistic.
He described Great Britain's exit from the EU without a trade agreement as "very, very likely".
The prices collapsed on Europe's stock markets.
Johnson said on Friday, "It is very, very likely that we will have to choose a solution that I think would be great for the UK, and that we could do exactly what we want from January 1st." But he will not break off talks, he wants to continue negotiating.
The negotiations on a post-Brexit agreement should continue until Sunday.
The EU Commission has already proposed emergency measures in the event that a trade agreement is no longer concluded.
The BBC reported that Johnson met with his Brexit boss Michael Gove on Friday to get an overview of the consequences of a “no deal”.
Customs chaos is casting its shadow in Dover
In view of the pessimistic remarks by der Leyens and Johnsons, business representatives are now more than ever expecting higher tariffs and other trade barriers from January 1st.
The first consequences of the possible “no deal” can already be seen in Dover: For days, trucks have been jammed for miles in front of one of the most important ports on the English Channel.
In many places, containers clog the space.
Many companies are trying to replenish their stocks before the end of the Brexit transition phase on December 31, but there are increasing reports that many ships are not accepting containers and are calling at other ports with more lucrative orders instead.
The toy manufacturers association BTHA has already warned that Christmas gifts for thousands of children in the UK might not arrive on time.
The Japanese car maker Honda stopped production at its Swindon plant due to delivery problems.
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Traffic jam in Dover
Photo:
PETER CZIBORRA / REUTERS
Other consequences are foreseeable: the food trade, for example, has to expect significantly higher prices.
On average, the BRC trade association warned on Friday that tariffs would be more than 20 percent higher on average on fresh food such as fruit and vegetables from the EU.
The fact that a few weeks before the end of the transition phase on December 31, in which Great Britain is still a member of the customs union and the EU internal market, there is still no treaty is "alarming," said BRC expert Andrew Opie.
Experts are also concerned that it is still not clear what companies will have to consider in future for trade with the EU and which documents will be required.
"This is crazy," said Sally Jones, a commercial expert at EY consultancy.
Although the government has known about it for years, it has taken too long.
Royal Navy is getting ready
The British Navy, on the other hand, is apparently already prepared for a hard Brexit.
Four Royal Navy patrol ships would be ready from January 1 to protect Britain's fishing waters in the event of a no-deal Brexit, reported the Guardian, citing sources from the Navy.
The 80-meter-long vessels would have the power to stop, inspect and confiscate all fishing boats from the European Union entering British waters.
Two ships should be used at sea, the other two should be on standby, it said.
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Royal Navy ship (archive image)
Photo:
Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Adam C. Stapleton / US Navy / REUTERS
A Defense Department official told the Guardian that the department had "done extensive planning and preparation to ensure the defense was ready for a number of scenarios at the end of the transition period."
In the Brexit negotiations until Sunday, the main points of contention also include the fishing rights for EU fishermen in British waters.
Because of the stalled negotiations, the regulation of fishing rights between the EU, Great Britain and Norway has also been delayed.
The Scandinavian country threatened to close its waters to British and EU boats if it failed.
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ptz / afp / dpa / Reuters