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Is the mask outdoors an effective means of fighting the epidemic?

2020-12-12T14:26:45.990Z


FIGAROVOX / TRIBUNE - With two confinements, comparisons between regions can be drawn in order to judge the effectiveness of the various health measures taken by the government, estimate the professor of physics and chemistry Samra Bouazza and the professor of economics Serge Blondel.


Serge Blondel is professor of economics at GRANEM (University of Angers), federation Theory and evaluation of public policies (TEPP) and LIRAES (University of Paris).

Samra Bouazza is a professor of physics and chemistry at the National Education.

During the first wave, measures were taken mainly at the national level and very quickly.

For the second (hopefully the term will remain the correct one), there was a wide variety of decisions depending on the territories.

Thus, it becomes possible to compare places where measures have been taken with “

witness

neighbors

who will allow the impact of the measure to be assessed.

Read also:

"Do not transform a natural epidemic into a collective moral fault of the French"

Without saying so, the government carried out natural experiments but just failed to draw any conclusions.

If the Alpha territory imposes the mask when its neighbor Beta leaves the citizens free to wear it or not, it is expected a better evolution in Alpha.

What was it?

We then see some results.

Our leaders tell us to change the measures according to the figures, they should also analyze the impact of their decisions.

Since the end of August, Île-de-France has been a textbook case.

Wearing a mask has become compulsory in all public spaces, including outdoors, in Paris and the inner suburbs.

The other four departments imposed it much later, starting with the Yvelines on September 26.

Thus a fairly homogeneous group, linked by a single transport network, with people often moving from one department to another for work, was faced with differentiated measures.

The departments where the mask was imposed outdoors at the end of August saw their deaths increase by 129.2% against the pile + 100% in the peripheral departments of the region

The closure of bars, still in the same central area, followed on October 6, before the curfew throughout Île-de-France on October 17.

To assess what happened, we will use the figures for hospital deaths (the Ephads are not affected by these measures because patients are not often discharged).

The attached diagram makes it possible to appreciate the evolutions.

Weekly deaths per 100,000 inhabitants.

Serge Blondel and Samra Bouazza

What was the effect of the imposition of the mask on August 28 in Paris and the inner suburbs?

The comparison only relates to the wearing of the mask outdoors because it was already compulsory everywhere in closed public spaces.

Let's compare weeks 35, just before the measurement, and 39, at the end of this experiment.

The departments where the mask was imposed outdoors at the end of August saw their deaths increase by 129.2% against + 100% in the peripheral departments of the region: the opposite result of that expected, failure of the measure.

Basically, to say that the masks are useless was perhaps not so false because the second wave, by being massively masked, already made at the peak (November 19) 12,810 deaths in hospital against 7,719 at the peak of the first on April 8.

It will be much more deadly.

During his last weekly update, Jean Castex responded sharply to the press that we still had months of wearing the mask.

Is it useful outdoors?

To read also:

David Brunat: "The long winter of French sociability"

The figures indicate no and it seems quite logical: we infect ourselves in a small space, with prolonged contact.

We must assess the risks, as highlighted here on November 24, to make the right decisions: the risk being zero when walking in the street, the mask is useless there.

For example, in Berlin, the mask is mandatory only in very dense streets, as was done a few days in Paris at the end of August.

And what about the bars closing on October 6?

Let us compare week 40 just before with week 44 to allow time to assess the effect of the measure: deaths were multiplied by 2.96 in the center of Île-de-France and 3.58 in the rest of the region.

This closure appears to have had a slight "

slowdown

" effect.

The period was also complicated because there were several versions of curfews.

Many of us are trying to help by analyzing the figures of the epidemic and however the Directorate General of Health which has the keys does not use them sufficiently.

There was another test with the closing of bars on September 28 in Aix-Marseille, which represents more than 90% of Bouches-du-Rhône, compared with the neighboring Var.

The two departments peaked at a number of weekly deaths per 100,000 inhabitants at 7.47 and 5.11: the Var was less affected despite the absence of strong measures before October 24.

The effect of the closing of the bars is not clear on this Mediterranean experience: the situation was worse in Aix-Marseille.

The situation is paradoxical: many of us are trying to help by analyzing the epidemic figures and yet the Directorate General of Health, which has the keys, does not use them sufficiently.

All measures must be evaluated against this data.

The conclusions are not always very clear but some are, like the effect of wearing masks outdoors.

This has no effect and only adds to the inconvenience of the otherwise very disciplined citizens.

To read also:

Dr. Martin Kulldorff: "Containment produces devastating effects on public health in the short and long term"

Do not confuse constraining these (limits of 1 or 20 kilometers, certificates to be completed, wearing a mask outdoors, closing small shops, etc.) with the effectiveness of the measures: each must be evaluated before being adopted or stopped .

There is still time to achieve a beautiful deconfinement.

Source: lefigaro

All news articles on 2020-12-12

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