This is what Leumi economists and the chief economist at the Ministry of Finance expect.
Dizengoff Center Mall in Tel Aviv
Photography:
Joshua Joseph
The government deficit will be low compared to early forecasts, according to Alex Zevzynski, the chief economist at Meitav Dash.
In the last month, the deficit reached a peak of NIS 151 billion, which is 11.1% of GDP.
This is an increase of about NIS 100 billion in the deficit in the past year, as a result of a decrease in revenues of about NIS 30 billion, and an increase in expenses of about NIS 70 billion.
Tax revenues fell by only 2% this year, and in recent months tax revenues were higher than in the corresponding period last year.
According to Zabrzynski, by the end of the year the deficit will not exceed 11.5%, compared with negative forecasts of 13% or more in the scenario of a second closure, which did materialize.
Meitav Dash estimates that next year the deficit is expected to be even lower than 8% - which is the current Bank of Israel forecast.
The surprising reason for this is that the non-existence of a fixed budget will allow the government to be based on the previous year's budget in a division of 1/12 - thus avoiding excessive expenditures.
Debt Raising Record
The deficit forecast also stems from a record amount of debt raised by the government over the past year - NIS 167 billion, of which about 62 billion abroad, more than 37%. , The volume of budgetary expenditure of the Corona assistance program "is very low relative to most developed countries."
As of the end of November, the budget implementation of the plan is about NIS 59.4 billion, which is about 4.3% of GDP.
The implementation rate of the program items relating to direct support in households and businesses, which are also the major expenditure items of the program, is higher than the other items.
This is while the rate of implementation of the clauses relating to credit solutions, a plan to emerge from the crisis and encourage employment, is strikingly negative.
"This development could make it difficult for the economy to emerge from the corona crisis and return to a path of growth," warn national economists.
Moderate recovery
Meanwhile, the Treasury yesterday released new data on the impact of the second closure on the labor market.
The analysis of the chief economist at the Ministry of Finance, Shira Greenberg, shows that the unemployment rate last October was 50% lower than in the first closure in April, and the employment rate was higher, respectively.
In the first half of November, the recovery in the labor market continued, albeit in a slightly more moderate manner, and the broad unemployment rate fell to 12.6%.