Groping.
Despite the many uncertainties on the health front, the Banque de France did not shy away from the programming exercise and published its macroeconomic forecasts until 2023 on Monday. The main message is unsurprising: because of the second containment, the French economy will rebound more slowly than expected.
At this stage, according to its central scenario, the country will not return to its pre-crisis level of activity until mid-2022, thanks to GDP growth of 5% in 2021 and 2022, after a plunge of 9% in 2020. By 2023, growth would have returned to a more usual pace, at + 2%.
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To illustrate his message, the Governor of the Banque de France, François Villeroy de Galhau, used the metaphor of the staircase.
In the spring, France had tumbled thirty-one steps.
After the recovery in the third trimester and the new relapse in November, she still has eight to recover.
“We expect a very gradual ascent of these eight steps.
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