In its latest economic report, INSEE confirmed its forecast of a drop in gross domestic product (GDP) of 9% in 2020. The institute thus joins the Banque de France, with an estimate of two points above that of the government, which is still targeting an 11% recession this year.
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The second confinement confirmed the lessons of the first: as soon as the constraints weighing on activity are lifted, production and consumption pick up clearly.
"Contrary to previous economic crises where French activity may have tended to decline less and then rebound more slowly than in other countries, the movements were, particularly in the spring, very large in France",
note thus the experts from INSEE.
For 2021, economists are relatively confident about an upturn in activity.
The hope is in particular that
"vaccination will make it possible to curb the epidemic and to lift the restrictions which weigh on economic and social life",
they write.
At the same time, European countries should benefit from the various stimulus plans prepared in recent months.
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Mid-2021, horizon of this note, the level of activity in France would then be identical to that recorded during the previous summer, lower by “only” 3% than the pre-crisis level.
Under these conditions, the economy would rebound sharply.
INSEE forecasts GDP growth of 3% in the first quarter of next year, then 2% in the second quarter.
At the end of June, the annual "growth overhang", which measures the growth rate if GDP no longer increased over the remainder of 2021, would thus amount to 6%.
"This figure is high, but above all it reflects the very low point that 2020 constitutes",
insists INSEE.
It remains especially under the threat of a new runaway epidemic.