Even though the biggest tax hike in 14 years is due in January, bargain hunters will soon be happy.
In one industry in particular, experts are expecting an “unprecedented price slide”.
Chancellor Angela Merkel *
and
Finance Minister Olaf Scholz
wanted the
economic
boost quickly after the first Corona * -Lockdown.
Her idea cost her
20 billion euros
- VAT was reduced.
Economic
experts are now taking stock and dare to make forecasts for 2021.
Berlin - At the turn of the year, the
biggest tax hike
in 14 years
is due for all consumers
: The
VAT rate
will
be increased
from
16 to 19 percent
on January 1, 2021
, the
reduced tax rate
from five to seven percent.
Admittedly, these numbers are not really new, as they were valid from
2007
to June
30, 2020
.
Due to the
coronavirus pandemic *
and the serious consequences of the first
lockdown in spring
for the German economy, the government temporarily lowered the tax rate.
The idea behind it:
Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU)
and her
Finance Minister Olaf Scholz (SPD)
wanted to encourage Germans to consume and boost the economy.
In just under two weeks, all
penny foxers are
threatened
with a return to the
status quo
.
However, the balance sheet after half a year with the temporarily reduced
VAT
- unique in German history -
is bitter.
The
federal government has waived
around
20 billion euros
in
tax revenue
, but it has apparently hardly paid off for trade.
The verdict of many
economic
experts is more than harsh - there
is even talk
of a 20 billion euro
error
.
Video: Federal government initiates a reduction in VAT in June 2020
Compared to the
Welt am Sonntag
now explained
Stefan Genth
, the chief executive of the
trade association Germany
(HDE): "Overall, the tax cut could do nothing against the
negative effects
align with the consumption of the pandemic and had only a marginal effect." For most companies, is the The effort was higher than the benefit,
Genth
continued.
His judgment is understandable, as
price tags had
to be recreated and
cash register and debit systems had to be
laboriously reprogrammed.
Who was the VAT cut really good for?
The
drugstore chain
Rossmann
corrected its prices up again months ago.
"
We withdrew
the
three percent discount
in the last week of September - without our customers noticing," the
world was
told there
.
It is not a problem to take back something that nobody notices.
The
VAT reduction
was simply too small, so that neither companies nor private people
really used it
for their
everyday shopping
.
The
fashion trade is also
disillusioned: the government measure had "no effect whatsoever", as reported by the
Breuninger
fashion company, which is represented in many large cities
.
On the other hand, the situation in the
furnishing industry
looks a little different,
the goods that the customer purchases here are more expensive than those when shopping in the supermarket.
Jan Kurth
, the general manager of the
Association of the German Furniture Industry
(VDM), could
note
a significant increase in
incoming orders
for
kitchens
, upholstered furniture and high-quality
home furniture
from July
.
The Germans, who had already planned a major purchase, struck in the last six months.
At prices of several thousand euros, the three
percentage points were
then very noticeable.
Experts see the 20 billion program as a big mistake
Nevertheless.
For the
Advisory Council
of the
Federal Government's
most important economic
advisers
, the
20 billion program
is subsequently impossible to justify.
In an annual report, they criticized the low efficiency of the
tax cuts
, because their "effect on the economy should remain limited".
Higher earners
reacted more strongly to the actually economic aid measure than
low earners
and would probably have bought a new
car
or
kitchen
in 2020 anyway
- as planned.
The
Federal Minister of Finance, Olaf Scholz,
is still firmly behind the decision: “We have made an offer to make
major purchases
despite the
crisis
.
That worked. ”
His ministry
told the
world
that it was a matter of“ promptly
initiating
a significant
economic stimulus
. ”The set goal was achieved.
Video: Economic forecast for 2021
Ironically, the
second lockdown
and the
difficult situation in trade
could prove to
be
the luck of the
bargain hunters
in
2021
- although three percent more taxes will have to be shelled out again from the beginning of the year.
"In view of the high
competitive pressure
, the scope for price increases will be extremely limited," explains HDE boss
Genth
and
even announces "an unprecedented
price slide
"
for
fashion
and
shoes
.
Scientific studies also show that sales tax increases are passed on to customers twice as much as temporary cuts.
“If the shops are allowed to reopen”,
Axel Augustin,
as
spokesman for the textile trade association
, assumes
“a gigantic
wave of discounts
”.
The industry is sitting on a huge mountain of unsold goods.
About 300 million parts remained unsold.
So the
OTTO-Versand announces
Already now to
offer
extensive
special promotions
again and again in the next few months
, the
VAT rate
is only one component of many in the formation of prices.
Only whether consumers will react to the offers remains to be seen - after all, many people tend
to save more
during the
crisis
.
(cos) * Merkur.de is part of the Ippen-Digital network.