January 31: UK and Gibraltar leave the EU
Three and a half after the result of the referendum on the UK's exit from the European Union, which saw the victory of Brexit supporters, the British are leaving the EU for good.
A long sprint then begins, due to end on December 31, 2020 to seal an agreement that should settle future relations between the EU27 and London.
While the status of the Northern Irish border appears to be settled, discussions are bogged down over the fate of European fishermen in British waters.
The challenge: to reconcile legitimate British sovereignty over their maritime waters and the economic realities which see the British exporting 70% of their fish to the EU.
July 1: Beijing imposes its security law on Hong Kong
If the handover of Hong Kong to Communist China in 1997 provided for a special status and in particular respect for the rule of law, for the territory for 50 years, Xi Jinping decided in 2019 to accelerate the integration process of the former British colony.
To this end, it provides for the inclusion in the Hong Kong fundamental law of a law on extradition to mainland China.
Repelled by a majority of Hong Kong people during major protests in 2019, Beijing is taking advantage of the Covid-19 crisis to impose its law and imprison its opponents.
This repressive push is also observed on the margins of the Chinese empire where Beijing decides to export to Tibet and Inner Mongolia the methods which it used to muzzle the Uyghurs.
The Chinese model is on the move.
A model that Xi intends to bring to fruition by creating a vast free trade area anchored to China;
the Comprehensive Regional Economic Partnership (RCEP) taking advantage of the American withdrawal in the region.
August 9: Belarusians oppose Lukashenko's re-election
On July 1, Vladimir Putin triumphs.
The Russians approved 78% of his constitutional reform, which allows him to stay in power until he turns 84 in 2036. Official statistics describe a country spared by the Covid-19 health crisis.
Yet a few weeks later, the master of the Kremlin seems to have lost his hand.
The health crisis is well and truly there, the European Union, for once united, condemns the attempt to poison its most loyal opponent Alexeï Navalny and especially his "close foreigner" (countries from the former USSR than Moscow considers his home) seems to escape him.
Indeed, in the Belarusian crisis (since August 9 the street has been contesting the re-election of its president in power since 1994) the Kremlin seems to hesitate between two evils.
Intervene and take the risk of a new Ukrainian-style scenario or let it go at the risk of admitting weakness when he considers this country to be part of his “Great Russia”.
A series of disappointments follows.
On September 27 Azerbaijan launches its offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, on October 4 Kyrgyzstan plunges into an electoral crisis which sees its president supported by Moscow resign and on November 15 Moldova rejecting the corrupt pro-Russian elites chooses itself a pro-European president.
If on November 10, the Russian president finally succeeded in dictating his law in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict by imposing his military presence in Nagorno-Karabakh, he nonetheless brought the Turkish wolf into his Caucasian fold.
August 10: Turkey sends gas exploration vessel into Greek waters
Like his counterparts Putin and Xi, Erdogan seeks to take advantage of the erasure of the West to push his pawns in his regional environment and even beyond in order to affirm Turkey's return to the global geopolitical scene and also hide its disappointments. especially economical on the domestic scene.
Indeed, weakened on the domestic level, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was forced to ally himself with the ultranationalists of the MHP and therefore to resume their expansionist discourse, very far from “zero problems with the neighbors”, defended by his ex-premier Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.
If it was put in difficulty at the beginning of the year in northern Syria, a ceasefire with Russia temporarily freezes the conflict.
This agreement allows him to get out of a dangerous gear without losing face too much and leaves him a free hand to be able to embark on an all-out regional offensive.
Present in Libya since 2019, the Turks, thanks to the massive arrival of Syrian Islamist mercenaries and military equipment, allow the Libyan government to regain control against Marshal Haftar at the end of June.
This victory sounds like revenge on the Russian, Egyptian and Saudi sponsors of the Marshal.
It encourages it to continue its offensive from August this time in the eastern Mediterranean against Greece and Cyprus, supported by France against a backdrop of gas exploration.
This neo-Tomaniacal strategy of questioning the status quo inherited from the First World War is found in its victorious engagement alongside the Azerbaijanis in their offensive to reconquer Nagorno-Karabakh, going so far as to designate, in defiance of history, the Armenians as "the greatest threat to peace in the region".
September 15: signing of the Abrahamic accords
If the year has started badly for Benjamin Netanyahu with an almost general rejection by the international community of the peace plan concocted by the Trump administration and the impossibility for him to keep his promise of an annexation of the West Bank on July 1, the second half of 2020 is more promising.
Indeed, if Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of Donald Trump and main architect of the "deal of the century", did not obtain the hoped-for gains in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the discussions he had with Arab leaders during of its negotiations allowed it to advance on unexpected ground: the recognition of the State of Israel by the Arab countries.
At war with its neighbors since its creation in 1948, Israel had so far only managed to normalize its relations with Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994, thanks to the good auspices of the various American administrations.
But this quest for the deal, dear to the American businessman president, seems to bear fruit here.
As part of this give-and-take strategy, the UAE recognizes Israel on August 13 in exchange for the purchase of 50 F-35 stealth fighters.
They are joined by Bahrain a few days before the officialization of this agreement on September 15 in Washington.
The Sudanese also embark on this path on October 23 in exchange for their country's removal from the list of countries supporting terrorism.
And finally Morocco, on December 10, with as a counterpart the recognition by the United States of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.
This reversal of alliances aiming to create an anti-Iranian front with the blessing of Saudi Arabia reshuffles the cards of the Middle East even if for the moment the Saudi kingdom has not yet dared to take the plunge, waiting to see the policy that will follow the new American administration.
November 3: Americans elect their president
At the beginning of the year, on the strength of his economic successes, Donald Trump can calmly consider a re-election in November.
11 months later the American economy has lost its splendor and the country has to face a health crisis which claimed more than 230,000 victims, or more than the soldiers who died in combat during the 4 years of the Civil War.
Americans therefore severely judge the management or non-management of the Covid-19 crisis by the Trump administration.
We therefore predict a large victory for the Democratic camp.
And yet, on the night of November 3 to 4, the first results were tight and it would take a week for Joe Biden to be declared the winner by the American media, to the anger of the outgoing president.
The multiplication of remedies for fraud will do nothing.
They are one by one rejected by the courts and the new Democratic administration is gradually getting ready to go in order to be ready on January 20, 2021. After 4 years of an “eruptive” presidency, marked by a withdrawal of the United States on the international scene, will the arrival of a Democratic president advocating conciliation mark a return to a more traditional approach to American power in the global geopolitical game?