12/24/2020 5:53 PM
Clarín.com
Opinion
Updated 12/24/2020 7:33 PM
Officials of the International Monetary Fund are restless and concerned about the political tension that exists in the coalition that leads the Casa Rosada.
The latest short-circuits between Cristina Kirchner and Alberto Fernández rekindled doubts in Washington and among the IMF staff.
In both cases, the uncertainty centers on a crucial issue, which is to reveal whether the inmates of the Frente de Todos can complicate the application of a macroeconomic plan in Argentina.
In other words, that
Cristina's advance prevents carrying out a plan
that balances the overwhelmed economy.
The IMF auditors raised this issue in their reports to the
board
of the Monetary Fund.
Both delegates from Washington spoke on the subject during their mission in Buenos Aires.
It happened during meetings they had with officials, union members, businessmen and economists.
The duo of technocrats had arrived in Argentina with an internal IMF report that
warned about the political scene in Argentina
.
Prepared by the IMF's Policy Strategy and Reviews Department.
Cubeddu - for that reason - was direct in the long meeting he had with the Interior Minister Eduardo Wado De Pedro.
It lasted three hours.
Luis Cubeddu and Julie Kozack, envoys of the IMF, with the Minister of Economy Martín Guzmán.
Photo: AFP
The IMF delegation attended the Casa Rosada, but the dialogue was virtual, by Zoom.
The minister was preventatively isolated for having had contact with a person with coronavirus.
Cubeddu asked:
"What is the strength of the governing coalition?"
.
Kozack, a day later, insisted with the same song in front of Sergio Massa.
De Pedro and Massa gave the same answer answer.
They said that the Frente de Todos was going to accompany the agreements of the Casa Rosada with Kristalina Georgieva.
But Cubeddu did not return to Washington convinced.
In his "papers" for the leadership of the IMF, he raised the doubts that exist because of the differences between Cristina and Alberto.
Clarín
consulted in Washington.
There, an IMF spokesperson stated: "We are not going to comment on this sensitive issue."
Now, the offensive of the vice president against the cabinet - chosen by the President -
lit the alarm lights in Washington
.
This climate also exists among the "wolves" of Wall Street.
The Manhattan bankers speak of official interns and insist that
the problem in Argentina
is of a political nature.
A top-secret JP Morgan report claims that
the Frente de Todos coalition is not working well
.
The "wolves" argue that Cristina returned with everything and
wants to impose her anachronistic economic proposals
on Alberto.
The event in La Plata was put together to show unity in the Front.
But Cristina transformed it into the opposite, it was a bomb against the Casa Rosada.
The vice president -in her privacy- insists that
the government is bad and wants officials to radicalize
against the Court, businessmen and the media.
It also encourages changes of ministers and locating Kirchner "gurkas" in key areas to carry out the offensive.
Cristina - as
Clarín
anticipated
- does not want tariff adjustments before the elections and encourages
a return to the very poor "Kicillof Plan"
that left an economic "bomb" for Mauricio Macri.
The former president - still on vacation now in the South - will fight this year.
He holds meetings with "Republican Peronists" led by Miguel Ángel Piccheto.
This very active group held meetings with a series of economists.
Among them, Domingo Cavallo himself, who told them that only the recession
will prevent hyperinflation in 2021
.
It was also confirmed that Macri divorced Jaime Durán Barba.
The former president could not bear criticism from the publicist.
It considers it unfair.
Cristina Kirchner and Alberto Fernández, at the event in La Plata where the Vice President was very hard on the cabinet.
Cristina's public hatred of the cabinet - for the first time - angered and provoked the reaction of many ministers.
Gabriel Katopodis, Felipe Solá, Matías Kulfas and other albertistas questioned Cristina's whip as unfair and inappropriate.
In private the ministers criticize the Vice President who has ruined the act of unity and with her sayings worn down the image of the President.
But the offended ministers cannot refute a fundamental problem that Cristina raised: the Cabinet leaves much to be desired and, except for a handful of officials,
most are painted
.
The Vice, in addition, with its claims caused another upheaval because it stopped the changes that Alberto already planned to make in his team of collaborators.
In the head of the President was a relaunch of the Casa Rosada.
The problem, too, is that Alberto and Cristina do not share which ministers to displace.
Alberto evaluates the situation of Tristán Bauer, Felipe Solá, and Luis Basterra.
Cristina attacks the President's inner circle: Marcela Losardo, Nicolás Trotta, Claudio Moroni, Matías Kulfas and Sabrina Frederic.
All this controversy is generated when there is already a strong debate in the economic-social cabinet.
Martín Guzmán wants to
keep subsidies at bay
and one sector is demanding more public funds to face the crisis.
They accuse Guzmán of wanting to do magic.
The issue led to strong crossovers at the last meeting.
The President, in the end, entered the meeting and had to intervene to calm the heated spirits.
The most “powerful” discussion was Kulfas with Jorge Ferraresi.
The former mayor of Avellaneda and today the Minister of Habitat reproached Kulfas for his delay in defining the subsidies for UVA loans.
Ferraresi emphasized loudly that it is he who has to "put his face up."
More calm, Guzmán insists on an optimistic diagnosis: he
promises a favorable economic scenario
to win the 2021 elections.
In the Palacio de Hacienda it is stated that the economy will improve for five reasons:
-
Biden's policy of devaluing the dollar.
-
Increase in commodities, even higher than the current ones.
-
Local dollar quiet by agreement with IMF.
-
Recomposition of salaries and pensions.
-
Scenario without Covid and economic rebound.
The diagnosis has at least weak points.
The rebound in infections and the delay in the vaccine can wreck the reactivating plan.
There is also another issue: the "wolves" of Manhattan foresee higher inflation and movements in the exchange market in February if Argentina does not make a fiscal adjustment.
Several health experts reinforce one point.
The vaccination deadlines will not be met
and the fight against the coronavirus will be extended in Argentina.
They say it will be at least one more two-month period.
There is now a
war between international laboratories
fighting for supplies to make the antidote and that could delay supplies throughout the undeveloped world.
The Casa Rosada intends to overcome the setback it suffered with the Sputnik V vaccine.
Putin left his local defenders offside
.
Axel Kicillof, Cecilia Nicolini and the Chilean Marco Enríquez-Ominami made up the
trio of influencers who “lobbied” in Olivos in favor of Russia
.
They had support from Cristina.
All three tried to shed their responsibility when things got tough.
Now the first plane has arrived, but doubts about the subsequent supply still persist.
Russia would be difficult to send 10 million doses during January.
Pfizer's vaccine was the first in the world.
Photo: AP
Nicolás Vaquer - head of Pfizer Argentina - would have an advanced and secret negotiation with Ginés González García.
Both want to
refloat and close a supply deal
.
The Minister of Health always asked for caution and put cold cloths on the Moscow adventure.
Vaquer spoke directly on the subject with Albert Bourla, CEO of the New York-based multinational.
There would be a will to close.
Also the Argentine ambassador in Washington, Jorge Argüello, takes part in the management.
So far the White House has an indifferent and detached attitude.
Donald Trump, in his last days as president, is determined that laboratories supply the United States first.
The question is crucial for Alberto Fernández.
The priority is the health issue.
But the President is playing another crucial game:
without a vaccine there will be no safe reactivation
and that would put the electoral year in check
