Netanyahu's Likud presents as a "leftist" anyone who dares to abandon and criticize the leader, but with Elkin it will not catch on • Elkin's departure is another layer in her sense of disintegration on the eve of the election • And who will take advantage of the vacancy and put a healthy head in a sick bed?
• Interpretation
The credibility of the things he hurled at Netanyahu upon his departure must be taken with a limited guarantee.
Elkin and the Prime Minister
Photography:
Photo: Oren Ben Hakon
The election campaign that opened this week will be the most challenging ever for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and with a tangible threat of losing power. Opponents on the right are challenging his leadership, one of whom has already stated that he will not sit with him - and all this when the right-wing bloc is disbanded, and alternative coalitions without him seem more possible than ever. Netanyahu looked directly at the danger lurking in the days before the dissolution of the Knesset and was already about to fold, give Gantz a law that would close the loophole that allows an exit station before the rotation and leave with his hand on the bottom but with at least another year in power. The collapse of blue and white in the moment of truth torpedoed the plans.
According to the current survey map, Netanyahu will have to find coalition partners out of nowhere to form a government. The right-wing bloc will probably not be enough this time either. If Gideon Saar sticks to his refusal, Netanyahu will have to migrate to the left-wing bloc again to look for the missing seats. Not sure he will find. And if all this was not enough, Ze'ev Elkin arrived and provided Netanyahu with the weekly headache.
Minister Elkin's joining Saar's new party and the intrinsic value it gives it must not be underestimated.
The Likud's attempts to present Saar as a left-wing party will seem a bit detached now, with the list glorified by a clear right-wing man, a settler and who served as chairman of the Eretz Israel lobby before he was appointed cabinet minister.
Elkin is considered an even more gifted political strategist than Saar. Coalition leader and chairman of the Likud's negotiating team.
In his tenure, in the four years from 2009 to 2013, the coalition did not suffer a single discrimination in the plenum.
Elkin was also the only secret partner from the Likud during Shaul Mofaz's entry into the Netanyahu government on the night of the vote to dissolve the Knesset, just before the third and final reading.
No one would be surprised if it turns out that behind the recent political moves, including Michal Shir's vote against the compromise that would have postponed the election, Elkin stood as a full partner of a behind - the - scenes storm.
Elkin's departure from the Likud is a moral blow to the ruling party and another tier in its sense of disintegration on the eve of a fateful and dangerous election for it.
Despite all this, the things that Elkin hurled at Netanyahu during his speech must be taken with limited guarantee.
The message he conveyed seems to match exactly the message conveyed by Saar when he retired and announced the establishment of a new hope: Netanyahu was cool, but now he has become a burden because of his personal desires.
Contrary to Elkin's words, it is not at all certain that if Netanyahu had announced that he was giving up his immunity, blue and white would have jumped to his government.
Blue and white and an anti-Bibi bloc had a majority to torpedo immunity and there was no need for Netanyahu to declare it.
The top interest
after sobering up from Elkin's departure, the prime minister's initial dilemma, even before the campaign phase, would be how to now treat the blue and white stuck in the government without being able to move. Should strive to reach agreements and understandings - perhaps during the divorce it will be possible to work together, which may affect the future coalition, if the party will pass the threshold. or take advantage of the most built-in cabinet and pass resolutions with total disregard Ganz and his colleagues.
another complex and no less significant is the crisis management corona-while-election campaign. public trust also that the boards. vaccines will surely part Inseparable from the campaign, but how can the Prime Minister lead a prolonged closure without holding a calendar and scheduling any move by the time the polls open.
The criticism that will be exposed to it, no matter which direction he chooses to go, will be sharp.
Netanyahu is building on the end of the epidemic and the end of the vaccination campaign, so he wanted to run after the election in a few weeks.
To be on the safe side.
But the rejection move did not help, and Netanyahu finds himself in a race against the clock.
Closed, followed by a release followed by celebrations of the end of the Corona, and all this before March 23 - not sure it is possible.
But as someone who feels that his political fate depends on it, he will no doubt do everything to strive for it.
So far, Netanyahu has not had any real political opponents on the right.
He is used to attacking the left and successfully.
But when two candidates from the right to the Likud announce their candidacy for prime minister, this is a significant challenge.
His natural tendency would be to try to catch up with them on the left, as he did for parties disguised as the center, and as he did for Israel Beiteinu, which was part of the right-wing camp.
But there is a difference between them and Naftali Bennett and Gideon Saar.
The right is the most right-wing party in the Knesset.
Lieberman further supported the two-state solution and said that for Shalom he was ready to evacuate his home in Nokdim.
But it seems that even if they crawl Google from start to finish they will not be able to find a meaningful statement that Saar ever said.
The position he chose to be in, in the "just not Bibi" camp, may serve the left more than the right, despite his political views.
The clearest interest of the left camp, above all else - to one day occupy power - is the overthrow of Netanyahu.
This is a camp that has been hoping for more than a decade for the Likud to be led by a mediocre candidate, on the scale of their own candidates, whom they can beat.
Joining right-wing forces into the "Just Not Bibi" camp serves them and fulfills their vision.
Saar announced that he would not sit under Netanyahu, but this announcement will come to the test, if at all, only in the moment of truth, after the election, when the alternatives will be sitting with Netanyahu, further elections or joining a left-wing coalition. the outcome may be relevant. Livni-led Kadima with 28 seats felt safe enough to stay out there. four years later led the movement with 6 seats, is already crept in.
Bennett sees the assault on the right
, in announcing his new party he heads, has taken a dangerous feat. His announcement could have led to the cancellation of the election and its postponement to an unknown end, which would have dried him out of the Knesset and out of the public consciousness for a long time. But Saar proved he was and remains a skilled politician, while resigning from the Knesset. He made sure to leave dormant cells inside the Mishkan - Zvika Hauser and Yoaz Handel for party funding, and Michal Shir and Sharan Hashakel for the fingers in the Knesset to torpedo a move to postpone the election. In both cases he succeeded. Which could have rejected a
In the election, Michal Shir was injured and raised her hand against just the right moment.
But it is impossible not to refer to the double standard.
When Orly Levy-Abacis was accused of stealing left-right votes, not really through her own fault but as a result of a connection agreement with Meretz, she received fatal criticism.
Michal Shir, who was elected by the Likudniks and transferred to the "Rak La Bibi" camp, was applauded.
Bennett realized he had missed an opportunity in recent weeks.
Both by delaying negotiations with Handel and Hauser, and also by missing out on Yifat Shasha-Biton, who also went on a rampage. In one moment he lost his debut as a contender for the central crown. To minimize damage, he announced this week that he would run for prime minister, Assaulting him, after being cut in half by force in polls just two weeks ago.
His campaign strategy will be different from Saar's.
We have principles and capabilities, he will tell the public, and the right will sit in any government that gives it the opportunity to implement them.
Netanyahu is not supported or denied.
Want to get to the top and start working.
Choose us, he will say, not because we are part of one camp or another.
In recent months, Bennett has met several times with former chief of staff Gadi Izenkot, and so far has not abandoned the chances of him choosing to join, despite the low chance of that happening. One of the problems hindering the match is that Eisenkot is undecided whether to join politics or whether. He is Bezalel Smutrich. Izenkot has a problem with his presence on the list, partly due to the attacks of the deep right on the IDF against the background of the Elor Azaria affair.
On the road to reconciliation?
Ganz and Lapid // Photo: Oren Ben Hakon
Ayelet Shaked did not like Bennett's rush to the elections and held talks with an alternative government in the current Knesset.
In recent weeks she has had intensive talks with Hauser and Handel in an attempt to persuade them to join a narrow right-wing government, in which she would have accepted the justice portfolio and Bennett apparently the defense portfolio.
Not only the two were not enthusiastic.
Bennett himself, too.
He preferred elections.
Despite the risk, he believes a five-seat party cannot really make as much of an impact as it can when its power grows.
Who will catch the wheel at work?
One decision has already been made in Ganz's heart.
As long as he is the chairman of the party, Blue and White will not run independently in the election. The dilemma ranges between retirement and joining Yair Lapid. It turns out that despite the rivalry between the parties and the mutual attacks, there remains an open axis between the bureaus. Hillel Kobrinsky. Lapid's man. Contact with Gantz's people even in difficult times. As far as is known, Gantz and Lapid have not yet met. But the assessment that such a meeting will take place is growing.
One of Gantz's associates explained the dilemma and told his interlocutor that Gantz was depressed and on the verge of breaking. To return one day in a few years if the conditions are ripe for it. But, he continued, Ganz does not want to close the door on a connection to Torch as number 2. He will not shed a tear when he sees Torch crushed under the Likud's venomous campaign machine. will now handle the torch and be left alone.
My father Nissenkorn and members of the faction of militant, know Ganz, is no longer with him. they are currently looking for new homes, as there is a future labor or a new party. Ron Huldai and Ofer Shelah, or without them.
statement by Amir Peretz because he is stepping down as Labor leader poses a difficult dilemma for Avi Nissenkorn and Huldai, both flesh and blood of the party
Veteran and dying.
Labor has assets, real estate, history and a grip on the ground - a fertile ground for jobs and incumbents. This is in addition to the grip that Nissenkorn has in the Histadrut. But on the other hand, labor can also turn out to be a millstone, a brand that has passed and smuggles voters. only a platform, a tool to connect more later. maybe even with a torch. In any case anyone relevant names - Nissenkorn and the mayor - has no ambition to be number one, and what is lacking on the left is a party to climb the areas of Likud seats.
Netanyahu needs to connect one on the left. when Likud leader for all A permit with a gap of ten or more seats is also the first to be hit.In 2013, Netanyahu secured his victory when he teamed up with Lieberman, and polls predicted an advantage of almost 20 seats over the rest. But the lack of tension and victory that seemed guaranteed in advance caused Netanyahu and Lieberman to bleed seats. Netanyahu managed to form a government, but the situation can no longer return. Lapid, then a new player in the arena, rejected all calls in the media and on the left to try to form an alternate coalition, announcing that according to the election results, the prime minister is Netanyahu. From his mouth she will no longer repeat itself, no matter what e
Results.