After Brexit, the temptation of independence in Scotland

“It is time to chart our own future as an independent European nation.

It was expected.

As soon as an agreement was reached on Brexit, Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish Prime Minister, hastened to put back on the table the question of the independence of her country, which had voted in June 2016 at 62% for stay within the European Union.

The Scottish leader already has a part of public opinion on her side.

In a few weeks, a dozen polls were published showing a large “yes” victory in the event of a referendum on independence.

"The last one, carried out before the end of the Brexit negotiations, showed that 58% of voters were in favor," confirms Sir Tom Devine, historian and specialist in the Scottish nationalist movement.

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The story of Brexit: the long divorce that fractured British society (Part 1)

The trend has therefore been reversed since 2014, during the first vote, when 55% of the population voted against.

“Overall, this Brexit shows a growing ideological gulf between a moderately left-wing Scotland and an increasingly right-wing England,” continues the historian.

A gap that Nicola Sturgeon wants to take advantage of to prove that this exit from the EU is disadvantageous, even economically catastrophic, for Scotland.

She has already accused the British government of neglecting Scottish farmers, including potato producers, excluded in the post-Brexit trade deal.

As for the Covid pandemic, it played a role of "accelerator" of this will for independence, according to Doctor Gerry Hassan, researcher on contemporary Scottish history at the University of Dundee.

The Scottish Prime Minister has been applauded for her handling of the crisis while Boris Johnson has been heavily criticized for his lack of strategy.

The next elections will be a test

In the event of a second referendum being organized, Nicola Sturgeon also knows that she will be able to count on additional votes, since for nearly a year, foreigners, including European nationals, and refugees have indeed obtained the right to vote in all Scottish elections.

The next ones, to elect the Scottish Parliament, will be held in May 2021 and will be a test.

If his party, the SPN - the Scottish National Party - in power since 2007, increases its base, it will give it new political weight to put pressure on Westminster.

Because it is London which has the last word on the holding of such a referendum.

However, Boris Johnson has already said no.

Except that if the SNP wins the stake in six months, the British Prime Minister will have a difficult choice to make: refuse again and thus stir up Scottish discontent or allow a referendum which could eventually lead to the disappearance of the United Kingdom.

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PODCAST.

The story of Brexit: the long divorce that fractured British society (Part 2)

In the midst of the battle against Covid-19

“We are at the end of the union.

Independence will come, predicts Gerry Hassan.

When?

Maybe within 10 years.

But the SNP must make concrete proposals by including all parties and creating a consensus.

In 2014, the vote was taken on a blank page, on an idea.

There, it will be necessary to go further.

"

Still, in the midst of the battle against Covid-19, the time chosen to relaunch the debate is probably not the most opportune.

"It is frankly astonishing that in the midst of this pandemic, which is killing thousands in Scotland, the government is even considering such a step", annoys the Scottish Conservative MP Jamie Greene, accusing the Scottish Prime Minister of using the Brexit for political purposes.

“There is no time for a referendum, no will, no interest.

It is rather time to unite our country than to divide it, ”he insists.

As for the possibility that one day Scotland, if ever it gains independence, could join the EU, Greene is hardly optimistic: “There are no guarantees.

At present, there is not even a chance that she will meet the basic criteria to apply.

"