Special interview
Author: Zhai Ziqian
2020-12-28 07:10
Last update date: 2020-12-28 07:10
There are many strong stocks with new highs this year. With a unique eye, can you "leave the wind and waves on the fishing boat" in the volatile market?
It is as strong as a fund manager who is not able to "buy low and sell high" every time. For retail investors, it is more likely to be "a fantasy."
Lin Shaoyang, Managing Director of Yili Investment, shared his investment mentality, emphasizing that no matter how fast the market is, we must "play fast with slow" and deploy slowly.
The Hang Seng Index is still recording negative returns, and Yili Investment China Fund has increased by more than 30% this year.
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Many investors will be able to reap substantial returns in 2020, and Yili Investment China Fund has increased by more than 30% this year.
However, Lin Shaoyang, managing director of Yili Investment, is not satisfied with this.
He confessed that he has not invested any emotions in investment decisions, it is just a matter of work.
He even warned that there will be three major risks next year. After the first quarter, investors should pay close attention to extra caution.
In November this year, Hong Kong stocks ushered in one of the months with the largest increase in recent years, which was able to "dingdong horse head" in April 2015 and January 2018.
In December, it continued to run rampant at a high level and lacked upward breakthrough power.
Lin Shaoyang did not dare to underestimate the performance of the capital market in the first quarter of next year. Among them, the U.S. stock market is still in a big bull market, which seems to be the most rapid rise in the bull market. The Russell 2000 index of U.S. stocks rose even stronger, with a monthly increase of 18%. Individual industries such as cloud computing, SAAS, and new energy vehicles have recorded increases of as much as 40 to 50%. In contrast, the Hong Kong stocks rose 10% in November, which can be described as "wet and wet."
He mentioned that the Hang Seng Index rebounded at 26,100 points this month. As the performance of US stocks is still relatively strong, it may drive the Hong Kong stocks to record positive returns throughout the month.
However, he emphasized that if the US stock market continues to rise in the first quarter of next year, there is a chance to drive the Hong Kong stock market to rise, but it will be difficult to rise after the first quarter, especially the increase in the first quarter is too significant, and it is necessary to be more cautious about the market outlook.
Lin Shaoyang bluntly said that the price of the medical care sector in recent months is relatively "difficult", but they are still willing to "pay the price."
(Photo by Huang Baoying)
"We are so willing to pay the price." Short-term price fluctuations are just market noise
He also pointed out that when the market reflects that its valuation method is correct, you will indeed feel satisfied, but you should not be complacent, because if the market reflects your thoughts too early, “you have to work harder because you have discovered that the past The effort spent in the year has already been reflected on the balance sheet, so it is necessary to find a new and better idea to maintain the past results."
Lin Shaoyang established Yili Investment for more than ten years. He said that the current operation method is most different from the previous one. Now, compared with the past two decades, he has a more long-term view and believes that the business model of the enterprise is more important.
He described that if the company's "ceiling" is far away, most funds will "ignore" short-term price fluctuations. For example, the price of the medical care sector in recent months is relatively "difficult", "I am very willing to pay the price", as long as the long-term If the business foundation is solid, he believes that short-term price fluctuations are just market noise.
As a successful fund manager, in addition to not easily feeling complacent, you must always review your own operations.
Lin Shaoyang mentioned that the fund's original plan was to increase the allocation of cyclical stocks, but since the relevant stocks have risen very rapidly in November and the funds under it are too late to buy, they reviewed why not buy more decisively.
But in fact, they always believe that many cyclical stocks have average long-term value and not very confident. Therefore, it is understandable that they were more cautious at the beginning.
Missing the rebound of cyclical stocks, Lin Shaoyang took the time of the correction in early December and bought more technology and pharmaceutical stocks at low levels. Among them, they believed that the market had overreacted in the centralized procurement of pharmaceutical stocks, and the stock price fell to an acceptable level. .
Lin Shaoyang's investment philosophy is like playing Tai Chi, to "play fast with slow", no matter how fast the market is, he doesn't mind slow deployment.
(Photo by Huang Baoying)
Only if there are fundamental problems with the business model, we must be fast and slow
Looking back on the investment operations in the past, he has experienced countless times of buying and selling. In the end, Lin Shaoyang found that once he found high-quality investment opportunities, he had to have the courage to "sit", and "sit" is actually the way to make the most money.
He pointed out that whether it is technical analysis or value analysis, "Sitting is the source of your money first, not Trading." If you continue to buy and sell, there will be brokerage commission costs, and Hong Kong has high stamp duties. necessary.
Moreover, the market is changing rapidly. Lin Shaoyang bluntly said that short-term news changes are far beyond everyone’s ability to grasp. When you cannot grasp all the information, you have to bear the risk of short-term volatility. Walk with you.
Lin Shaoyang’s investment philosophy is like playing Tai Chi, to "play fast with slow", no matter how fast the market is, and don’t mind slow deployment. Unless there is a fundamental problem with the company’s business model, you must "play slow with fast". It is necessary to make a decisive decision, but emphasize that it is not a short-term stock price fluctuation, but it may be that the company's business cannot be sustained in two or three years, and it must be deployed as soon as possible.
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Lin Shaoyang Investment and Finance
