Venezuela enters a new phase of confrontation between Chavismo and the opposition

Juan Guaidó, on December 15. MANAURE QUINTERO / Reuters

Venezuela is about to enter a new phase of confrontation between the Government of Nicolás Maduro and the opposition.

Chavismo will regain control of Parliament in January, which it had lost in 2015, after legislative elections held three weeks ago without the participation of the vast majority of its adversaries.

The vote, questioned by the main international bodies, snatched the National Assembly from Juan Guaidó, the institution that allowed him to support the thesis of his recognition as interim president.

Despite this, the opposition voted on Saturday to extend his term as head of the legislature.

The umpteenth twist of the screw in the deep crisis of the South American country has, at its core, the premises that characterize the political clash since the 2018 presidential elections. On the one hand, the refusal of the regime apparatus to compete in the polls at parity of conditions and with guarantees for all.

On the other, the commitment of the opposition led by Guaidó to maintain a parallel institutional architecture whose scope is eminently symbolic.

The leader of the Voluntad Popular party was proclaimed head of state in charge at the beginning of 2019. He did so with the support of Leopoldo López, the most emblematic figure of anti-Chavismo who at that time was under house arrest, and obtained the support of dozens of countries, led by the Donald Trump Administration.

He tried by all means to overthrow Maduro, through pressure in the street, calling for international sanctions or trying to force an uprising of the Armed Forces.

It did not succeed.

With his team, he formed a kind of shadow cabinet that opponents call the interim government and set up a network of representatives in most American and European countries.

None of that served to make a difference.

And now, although Guaidó will in practice lose control of Parliament as of January 5, when the new deputies take over their seats, his strategy is to keep his post.

Or, at least, give the feeling of it.

"In the absence of an electoral process that makes citizens protagonists of their destiny, we have assumed the constitutional continuity of the exercise of the functions of the deputies who represent popular sovereignty until free, fair and verifiable parliamentary elections are held."

With these words, the parliamentarian Juan Pablo Guanipa, vice president of the legislature, explained on Saturday during a virtual session of the National Assembly the criteria that justify the extension of Guaidó's mandate.

The opponents adopted this measure through the revision of the so-called Transitional Statute Law and Guaidó himself affirmed that the modification “serves to get out of the dictatorship, it serves the country, it serves the deputies, it serves the protection of the Republic, serves the interests of the nation, serves to regulate, to regulate, to agree among all factors the need for union.

"The mandate of the National Assembly extends in defense of our people, respecting the Constitution and against the consummation of fraud," he proclaimed.

However, that solution did not convince even all the opposition parties.

Acción Democrática, one of the main anti-Chavista groups, abstained despite reiterating its commitment to the fight against Maduro.

The failure of Guaidó's plan has multiplied internal unrest in recent months.

In the opposition ranks, Henrique Capriles also took a step forward, who has been away from the front line for years and in September opened the door to participate in the legislative elections on December 6.

He finally renounced this possibility when the European Union determined that the call lacked sufficient guarantees and requested, without success, a postponement.

To this is added that from January the same international recognition of Guaidó, his main impulse, is in danger.

Joe Biden will take office in Washington and, according to analysts, will probably change the diplomatic approach with Caracas.

And it can also change the position of Brussels, which until now has accepted the opposition leader as interim president and, at the same time, has maintained the dialogue with the Maduro government.

The Twenty-seven are now looking for a formula to continue supporting Guaidó, avoiding, however, his recognition as head of state.

The successor of Hugo Chávez, meanwhile, is preparing to regain control of the National Assembly, which will operate, without critical voices, as an extension of its Executive.

The activities of the Parliament chaired by Guaidó, although it remains in operation in parallel, will have no effect.

With these premises, the opposition is preparing to call again for the permanent mobilization of its supporters, as Leopoldo López pointed out weeks ago from Bogotá.

The purpose, however, is on the way to collide with the new restrictions against the coronavirus pandemic that the regime, according to Maduro, is about to announce.