"You should never waste a good crisis".
This maxim, attributed to Churchill, will it serve Europe in 2021?
How to bounce back from Covid-19, transform disabilities into assets and wake up Europe?
While the year 2020 has cooled the reform ambitions of the Élysée and amplified the fractures in society, it will be the greatest challenge for French diplomacy.
When he came to power, the overhaul of Europe was Emmanuel Macron's main international objective, the one in which he had put the most breath, as evidenced by his speech at the Sorbonne in September 2017. But the divisions of the continent, between east and west, north and south, German reluctance to power, the endless Brexit and the difficult Trump years have all been obstacles to the development of European autonomy.
Despite the recession caused by the health crisis, 2020 saw some good news.
The European Union overcame the shock of Brexit and kept its demands against England.
It broke a taboo by adopting a recovery plan (750 billion euros) accepting the principle of common debt.
She bent the divergent voices of Poland and Hungary.
With the election of Joe Biden to the White House, she will find a "classic" American president, who will revive the transatlantic relationship.
Europe must come out of its shell, of its naivety.
We have to put geopolitics back into commerce.
Nicole Gnesotto, expert on European issues at the CNAM.
And yet, the challenges of 2021 will be considerable.
Both for Europe, whose unity is only a facade, and for France, which claims to give it more ambition.
“Solidarity between Europeans is far from being achieved.
One of the great lessons of 2020 is that economic integration does not create political integration.
When there is risk of death, it is each man for himself who dominates, ”
notes specialist Nicole Gnesotto, in a conference at the National Conservatory of Arts and Crafts (CNAM).
Faced with the rise of China, Donald Trump's United States and Erdogan's Turkey, Europe, in addition to moving forward in dispersed order, has found itself quite alone this year.
Despite the arrival of Joe Biden, it will undoubtedly remain so in 2021, in particular to manage the crises that do not interest the United States but which threaten its security, from the Middle East to the Sahel.
“Europe must come out of its shell, of its naivety.
We have to put geopolitics back into commerce.
We have to put politics back in the EU, ensure that it exists in the crises that will shake the planet, ”
continues Nicole Gnesotto.
The French vision of a powerful Europe
As for France, it is isolated within the continent, where it struggles to impose on its partners its vision of a powerful Europe, based on strategic autonomy.
Rid of Donald Trump, the majority of European states will no doubt want to return to “business as usual” with the United States and place themselves under the security umbrella of the Americans, blind to the reluctance they show - Democrats and Republicans alike - to s 'keep busy with the affairs of the world.
Despite the complicity displayed by the Franco-German couple, the understanding between Paris and Berlin is never natural.
It remains laborious and fragile, and now suffers from an imbalance induced by the disappearance of Great Britain.
It also relies on Angela Merkel, who is due to step down in 2021.