Financial News
Written by: Huang Jie
2020-12-28 08:49
Last update date: 2020-12-28 09:23
On December 24, the news that Alibaba (9988) was under investigation due to monopolistic behavior involving "choose one out of two" and other monopolistic behaviors came out. The stock price plummeted 8.1% that day to close at 228.2 yuan. Alibaba's US stock "relay" fell again throughout the day. Tumbled 13.3% to US$222 per share, which translates to approximately HK$215.1, which is 5.7% lower than the closing price of Hong Kong stocks.
After the long holiday on the 3rd of Christmas, Hong Kong stocks opened today (28th). Alibaba opened nearly 4% lower, and opened at 219.4 yuan, down 3.85%, with a turnover of 996 million yuan.
Some experts believe that the stock has strong psychological support in the range of 200 yuan to 210 yuan.
At the same time, it is unknown whether it is in response to this wave of selling pressure. The group announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this morning that the board of directors has authorized an increase in the company's share repurchase plan from US$6 billion to US$10 billion.
The authorities ordered the ants to return to the source of payment
On December 24, the State Administration of Market Supervision stated that, according to the report, Alibaba had filed an investigation into suspected monopolistic activities such as "choose one out of two".
At the same time, the ant group's turmoil is over, and the four major regulators will once again talk to the ant group.
Alibaba later stated that it would actively cooperate with the investigation by the regulatory authorities, and pointed out that the company's business is currently upright.
On Sunday (27th), Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said that the financial management department has put forward rectification requirements for Ant Group in key business areas, covering five major aspects.
The first is to return to the origin of payment, improve transaction transparency, and strictly prohibit unfair competition.
The second is to license and operate personal credit investigation services in compliance with laws and regulations to protect the privacy of personal data.
The third is to establish financial holding companies in accordance with the law, strictly implement regulatory requirements, and ensure sufficient capital and compliance with related transactions.
The fourth is to improve corporate governance and strictly rectify financial activities such as illegal credit, insurance, and wealth management in accordance with the requirements of prudential supervision.
Fifth, the securities fund business was carried out in accordance with the law, strengthened the governance of securities institutions, and carried out the asset securitization business in compliance.
Alibaba's "Golden Egg" Ant Group was interviewed and officially listed five major rectification requirements.
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It is expected that Ali has greater support at 200 yuan
The central government has strengthened supervision of technet companies, and Hong Kong-listed technet stocks performed generally in the fourth quarter. Among them, Alibaba has fallen by about 25% from a high position. This is mainly affected by antitrust investigations and the listing of its subsidiary Ant Group.
Wu Lixian, a strategist at Everbright Sun Hung Kai Securities, estimates that Alibaba has strong support at around 200 yuan. "Alibaba's stock price has hovered between 200 and 210 yuan for a long time after its listing. It is expected that this person has strong psychological support." He also said that if Ali opened the market to follow US stocks "chasing down" by half, while other large technology and Internet stocks, such as Tencent (0700), did not fall much, within 2%, Ali's stock price is expected to show a technical rebound.
However, under the gloom of strong supervision, Wu Lixian does not recommend investors to use Alibaba. He stated that if the stock can rebound to 240 yuan to 250 yuan in the short-term, investors with stocks should sell in batches. The interim results of next year can only reflect the uncertain factors during the period, and risk aversion will be higher. Therefore, it is estimated that Ali will underperform other technology and Internet stocks and even the market."
Wu Lixian believes that next year's market speculation on the concept of economic recovery, coupled with strong regulatory haze, will cause Alibaba's share price to drop by a line.
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Old economic stocks are expected to run out next year
Wu Lixian also said that the valuation of general growth stocks with a price-to-earnings ratio of 25 is equivalent to predicting a compound growth rate of 10% per year. "Not to mention Alibaba!" He asked how to treat greater policy risks, such as Alibaba's Business dismantling, or possible changes in shareholding and company structure, Wu Lixian admitted frankly that the stock price is tested at the level of 200 yuan to 210 yuan, which has not yet reflected such major policy risks, but believes that it is too early to talk about this. "We see The central government will mainly act from two aspects, one is for the financial technology loan business, and the other is the "choice of two" anti-monopoly. Even if you dismantle Ali or even reorganize its equity, these problems will not be solved.
"He added that how the situation develops, you can only pay attention to the policy trend, and even the determination of the regulatory authorities, and take the small and micro loans under the Ant Group as an example. The authorities can demand a complete ban, such as P2P online loans in the early years, and they can follow the rules. In charge of the bank, it only requires more capital.
Wu Lixian tends to believe that even if the leading technology and Internet stocks are subject to regulatory regulations, their advantages will remain after the storm. "Such a large scale, with so many controlling investment ranges." Having said that, he believes that the concept of economic recovery in China and Hong Kong next year will be the old economy Stocks can run out, the bank's top three major sectors, including highway stocks, photovoltaic stocks and consumer stocks.
Alibaba Antitrust Ant Group
