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Covid-19: without measures taken before January 7, a peak in hospitalizations is possible from the 22

2020-12-28T16:52:42.081Z


This projection is taken from a study by the Nancy CHRU and the French Hospital Federation. Contamination may start to rise again after the end of the year holidays.


In the absence of restrictive measures before January 7, hospitals could experience strong pressure on the availability of intensive care beds on January 22, estimated Christian Rabaud, infectious disease specialist and president of the Establishment Medical Commission of the Nancy CHRU, reports

France 3 Grand Est

.

Read also: Covid-19: will France be forced to confine itself a third time?

Towards January 4, we can think that 500 more intensive care beds will be occupied in France.

We are at around 2800 now.

If we take measures on January 7th, they will only be effective on the 22nd. Between the 7th and the 22nd, things continue to rise and faster than between now and the 7th. We can thus arrive at 5000 occupied beds on the 22nd of this day. which is a very strong pressure for hospitals,

”he said.

The spread of the virus, which seems to have reached a plateau for several weeks, could indeed start to rise again with the mixing of populations at the end of the year.

His remarks are based on a study by the Nancy CHRU and the Hospital Federation of France (FHF) revealed by

the Journal du Dimanche

on December 20, evaluating the evolution of the epidemic according to the rate of reproduction of the virus (the famous "

R0 effective

”).

From January 7, it indicates that between 3,500 and 5,000 people could be in intensive care, a figure close to that reached during the peak in mid-November.

To this tension will be added a drop in the number of nursing staff.

Several caregivers as well as medical students will be on leave during this period.

Source: lefigaro

All news articles on 2020-12-28

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