How bad will the second corona wave get?
The Tropical Institute is now providing initial answers to this question.
Since the spring, attempts have been made in a large-scale study to determine the number of unreported cases
A large-scale
study
has been trying to find out since spring how bad the second Corona * wave will be.
The
Munich antibody study
now provides the first answers.
The study has once again shown how dangerous the virus is.
There is good news too.
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.
Munich
- The large-scale
Munich *
antibody study is the first nationwide study to provide information about the number of infections during the second corona wave.
It has therefore been shown that the number of those who have developed antibodies against the Sars-CoV-2 virus has almost doubled since the first wave, said the researchers from Infection and Tropical Medicine at the Munich University Hospital.
Noticeable: At the beginning of the new round of tests, around
1.5 percent of Munich
residents were
registered
as Corona-positive
with the health authorities
.
The actual number was more than twice as high as that of the detected infections.
+
A large-scale antibody study in Munich provides the first results.
© Sina Schuldt / dpa
The number of unreported cases was significantly higher during the first wave
This number of unreported cases was significantly higher during the first wave.
In the first part of the study, which took place from April 5 to June 10 with 5300 Munich residents from
3000 households
, the proportion of infections detected in the study was four times higher than the health authorities knew.
By this time, a good 1.7 percent of people had developed antibodies.
So there is some evidence that the health authorities are now escaping fewer infections
.
"If you only compare the increase in infections since the beginning of June, the rate of undetected infections has fallen even more markedly," said the researchers.
The fact that the number of unreported cases is now lower also shows that the test strategy in Bavaria is proving its worth, said study leader Michael Hoelscher.
At the same time, the
danger of the virus
has also become apparent
.
With a factor of 0.47, the mortality from corona infections is many times higher than that of seasonal flu.
Researchers come to Munich households to take blood
In April, the researchers from the Tropical Institute came to Munich households to draw blood from people.
The test procedure itself has changed:
This time the test subjects were able to draw their own blood with a fingertip
.
By December 9th,
4257 samples had been received
by the Tropical Institute.
The good news: According to Hoelscher, it is now clear that the amount of
antibodies
in the blood does not drop sharply after just a few months, as previously assumed.
On the contrary: if you tested positive for antibodies in the first round, this was usually also the case in the second phase.
It practically never happened that about six months after the first test in patients no more antibodies were detectable, said Hoelscher.
It remains to be seen whether the detectability of antibodies also means that those affected are immune
.
Further and more complex tests would be necessary to determine immunity.
The study, in which Helmholtz Zentrum München is also involved, will be continued.
List of rubric lists: © Sina Schuldt / dpa
