And four!
For the 4th year in a row, the figures from the INSEE (National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies) census published on Tuesday show a further decline in demography in the capital.
According to figures from demographers (established on the basis of the “legal” population recorded in 2018), Paris will have exactly 2,175,601 inhabitants on 1 January next.
This figure is 11,925 inhabitants lower than that of January 2020. And the population decline over five years has passed the milestone of 54,000 people.
Concretely, it is the equivalent of the entire population of a city like Bobigny (Seine-Saint-Denis) which left Paris in half a decade.
This regular erosion in the number of Parisians (of which INSEE dates the start to 2014) is all the more notable given that the capital is a case "apart" in Ile-de-France where all the other departments have seen their population continue to increase.
A relatively young city, Paris continues to "save the furniture" thanks to a natural balance (the number of births compared to the number of deaths) of + 0.7% per year well above the national balance (+ 0.3%).
But the Parisian birth rate has tended to decline for years, with the number of annual births falling from 32,000 to 27,000 in thirty years.
The natural balance is also weighed down by a migratory balance (arrivals compared to departures) of - 1.1% much higher than that of neighboring departments.
This high rate of departures is, in part, linked to the exceptional real estate situation in the capital.
Large family apartments are rare there and the average prices per square meter of housing have crossed the symbolic threshold of 10,000 euros throughout the capital.
Three boroughs on the rise
However, the arrondissements are not all equal in the face of demographic changes.
Only three of them have seen their population increase (slightly) over five years.
The 20th, the second most populous arrondissement in Paris, has gained 829 inhabitants in five years (+ 0.4%).
The 9th welcomed 400 more inhabitants (+ 0.7%) and the "small" 4th gained 1400 people over five years (+ 5.2%).
Two other districts have seen their populations stabilize over the past five years.
This is the case of the 19th (the most "social" district of Paris with more than 42% of HLM) which lost only 440 inhabitants compared to the figures of 2016 (- 0.2%).
On the other side of the capital, the 16th which has lost "only" 0.3% of its population in five years (538 inhabitants) gains a place in the ranking of the most populous districts and takes the 6th position in the 17th neighboring arrondissement.
6129 fewer inhabitants in the 7th district
At the other end of the picture, it is once again the very chic 7th arrondissement which takes first place on the podium of the most “deserted” arrondissements.
With a drop of 6,129 inhabitants, it has lost almost 11% of its population in five years.
The 8th and 1st (where house prices are also peaking) occupy the next two steps of the podium with respective demographic declines of 7.5% and 5.4% over five years.
“These numbers are not surprising.
They are in the continuity of the projections expected by INSEE or Apur
(Editor's note: the Parisian Urban Planning Workshop)
”, reacted this Tuesday, Emmanuel Grégoire, Anne Hidalgo's first deputy at the mayor of Paris, by recalling that the city can only act on the "real estate" factor to influence demographic curves.
10,000 new homes per year to save the day
“This involves the production of new housing.
We are planning 10,000 per year, half of which will be social housing.
And this also involves stepping up the fight against the excesses of seasonal rental platforms which deprive Parisians of housing, ”specifies the elected official.
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According to an INSEE study carried out in 2017, the decline in Parisian demography could last until 2025 before picking up again to regain its 2013 population (2.23 million inhabitants) ... in 2050.