He dissects the figures, scrutinizes trends and weighs decisions.
In the hands of Emmanuel Macron, a confidential note from the Scientific Council on the evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic in France.
She considers "
probable
" an "
uncontrolled resumption of the epidemic
" and recommends three options: take restrictive measures such as re-containment now, delay until January until the figures are clarified, wait for the restart of the epidemic to take hold. confirms to act.
At the end of two hours of Defense Council devoted to the health crisis on Tuesday morning, Emmanuel Macron decides in favor of the second proposal: there will be no third reconfinement, at least for the time being.
For regions particularly threatened by the rebound of the epidemic, the start of the curfew may be extended from 8 p.m. to 6 p.m. from January 2 after consultation with local stakeholders, particularly at the department level.
The list will be stopped on January 1 according to the latest data but around twenty departments are concerned in the four regions most affected by the rebound: the Grand Est, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and the Alpes-Maritimes.
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Vaccine: a campaign that starts slowly
Despite the pressure from local elected officials and hospital staff to take more radical measures faster, the status quo option won, and for two reasons.
First, because the dynamics of the epidemic are hard to read.
In December, before the end of the year holidays, the French rushed to test raising the rate from two million per week to three million.
In the process, the number of cases detected has also increased, as has the incidence rate.
"
The epidemic situation is difficult to characterize
," says Matignon.
The level of circulation of the virus remains higher than the level set to regain control of the epidemic. "
Tuesday evening, on France 2, the Minister of Health summed up: “
We are still too high.
It is not increasing but it remains at a too high level.
"
The French have "played the game"
Another cause of the fog in which the executive operates, the end of year celebrations.
After a Christmas during which the French "
generally played the game
" by limiting their contacts, the government is now waiting to see how the evening of December 31 unfolds.
At the top of the state, the main concern relates to a relaxation of behavior on the occasion of New Year's Eve.
With the key to the risk of seeing the epidemic start again much more strongly than expected.
This without forgetting the impact of the weather with the cold wave sweeping the country and promoting the spread of the virus.
"
It is still a little early to measure all this,
" slips an advisor at the forefront of the crisis.
The situation in which we find ourselves is not favorable and prompts us to be very careful.
A source at the Ministry of Health
In the end, it is therefore the “
waiting solution
” mentioned by Olivier Véran that won.
The Minister of Health had defended it to the mayor of Nancy, Mathieu Klein.
Faced with the outbreak of the epidemic in his region, the latter had asked the Minister of Health to reconfine locally in his region.
Unlike the first wave where they denounced the decisions taken in Paris and imposed "
without consultation on the territories
", this time it is the local elected officials who put the executive under pressure to re-define, at least locally.
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"Big party at home, but do not come": place for virtual parties for the New Year
In view of the functioning of the virus, it is only from the second week of January that the impact of the end of the year holidays on the epidemic can be observed.
"
The situation in which we find ourselves is not favorable and encourages us to be very careful,
" observes the Ministry of Health.
A way to prepare people's minds for the worst.
Especially those professionals who were waiting for January 7 and the review clause set by the Head of State to decide on a possible reopening.
“
We maintain this deadline.
We will look at the figures at that time
", we assure you even if Olivier Véran has warned:
" Obviously we will not be able to lift all the constraints.
"As for restaurateurs who keep their eyes fixed on January 21, again, Olivier Véran warned:"
It seems difficult to project into a lenient world that would allow us to get our heads out of the water
. "