It will be his first major international trip since his appointment in July.
The Prime Minister, Jean Castex, flies this Thursday for two days in Chad where he must wake up with the French soldiers of Operation Barkhane at the Kosseï camp in N'Djamena, which houses the command post of the anti-terrorism force engaged in Sahel.
“This trip obviously takes on a particular tone” after the death, Monday, of three French soldiers in the explosion of a homemade explosive device in Mali, we recognize in Matignon.
These losses occur paradoxically at the end of a year when Barkhane's 5,100 men, supported by the forces of the African countries of the G5 Sahel, obtained, according to Matignon, "rather exceptional results".
In recent months, the French army has stepped up offensives in the region of the three borders (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger), "neutralizing" more than a thousand terrorists, especially in the ranks of the Islamic State in the great Sahara ( EIGS).
These successes should encourage France to return to the workforce before the Pau summit in January 2020, by recalling 600 soldiers.
Since 2013, 47 soldiers died
The reduction of French troops is not officially on the menu for the trip of Jean Castex, who could nevertheless raise the subject during his meeting with Chadian President Idriss Déby, scheduled before New Year's Eve.
It should be announced by the President of the Republic at a summit scheduled “in January or February” with the G5 countries.
"The question has arisen for months of the necessary evolution and adaptation of the device" we recognize in Matignon who refuses to speak of "disengagement".
The subject is sensitive given that, since 2013, 47 French soldiers have been killed in operations Serval then Barkhane and that the deployment of troops in the vast Sahelian zone costs one billion euros per year.
Tuesday, rebellious leader and presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon called for a parliamentary debate and a vote "on the reason and utility" of the French presence in the Sahel.
Experts are also wondering about the effectiveness of the French strategy.
French soldiers alone fail to muzzle terrorism in the Sahel.
LP / PdP
"We have never killed so many terrorists as this year and they have never been so active because the hydra is reforming, so there is a problem," summarizes Jean-Marc Tanguy, journalist specializing in defense issues. .
For now, there is no visible exit.
If the Sahelian countries do not change their governance, this can still last for decades.
"
The deputy (Agir Ensemble) Thomas Gassilloud, member of the National Defense Commission, also believes that the countries concerned must tackle structural problems.
"The question is not to stay or to go but to stay differently by writing a new page," he believes.
In 2020, we did the job from a security point of view.
2021 must be the year of the Sahelians to whom we must pass the baton.
"
Estonians, Czechs and Swedes will take over
Part of the solution could come from the European Takuba force, a group of special forces intended to accompany Malian soldiers in combat.
But for now, only about 40 Estonian soldiers are at work.
A government source, however, announces "an increase in power" of the device with the arrival, early next year, of 60 Czech soldiers and a hundred Swedes.
“Barkhane's strength is not eternal,” recalls this source.
All our efforts are to weaken the terrorist groups enough so that the Sahelian armies, seasoned, ensure their security almost alone.
"