2020 goes, the crisis remains.
The fight against the coronavirus will also determine the new year.
Sure, there is hope: The vaccinations against Covid-19 have started, but the winter is still long.
It will take many more months until enough citizens have received both vaccine doses to gradually contain the pandemic better.
Dealing with the corona crisis will initially be the most important challenge for German politics.
The federal and state governments must, as far as they can, protect people's health and mitigate the negative consequences for the economy.
Will we be able to say at the end of 2021: We survived it?
Uncertain.
The fact that 2021 is a super election year won't make the fight against the virus any easier.
Elections will take place in six countries, and after 16 years the Angela Merkel era will end in autumn - the republic will have a new federal government, a new chancellor.
Before that, the Union still has a power struggle to decide, and the Greens also have to commit themselves: Who should challenge the Union and the SPD in the struggle for leadership of the country?
The prospect of a likely turbulent year.
Decision in the CDU power struggle
Icon: enlarge
Men with masks: Röttgen, Laschet, Merz
Photo:
MICHAEL KAPPELER / AFP
The CDU actually wanted to elect a new chairman in April 2020.
Nothing has come of that to this day.
Because of the corona crisis, the Christian Democrats postponed their party conference twice, now the decision will be made on January
15 and 16
at a digital party conference.
Because online voting is still uncharted territory, a subsequent postal vote should make the free choice legally watertight.
The result will be officially announced on January 22nd.
The candidates:
Friedrich Merz, 20 years ago already head of the Union faction and in 2018 defeated in the race against Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer;
he might want to give the CDU a more conservative profile
North Rhine-Westphalia's Prime Minister and CDU Federal Deputy Armin Laschet;
he most likely stands for the continuation of the Merkel course - therefore, as a precautionary measure, he is teaming up with the rather conservative Jens Spahn
the former Minister of the Environment and today's foreign expert Norbert Röttgen;
he represents the liberal, bourgeois-modern CDU
Icon: enlarge
Without him, nothing works in the K question: CSU boss Söder
Photo:
Matthias Balk / dpa
According to surveys, Merz is currently the most popular applicant, but in the end it is not the voters or the CDU members who decide, but 1001 delegates.
Laschet tries to distinguish himself as a corona crisis manager and thus prove his suitability for chancellor, Röttgen plays his foreign policy expertise.
The new CDU chairman is the first candidate for the Union's candidacy for chancellor.
But Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder could also make claims.
The CDU and CSU want to decide who will be in the spring.
Change of power on the left
Icon: enlarge
Future leaders of the left: Susanne Hennig-Wellsow, Janine Wissler
Photo: Frank May / dpa
The term of office of Katja Kipping and Bernd Riexinger ends, and like the Union, the Left had to postpone its party congress twice due to the corona.
In contrast to the CDU, however, the change of power on the left is organized.
In all probability, the Hessian parliamentary group leader Janine Wissler and the Thuringian state chairwoman Susanne Hennig-Wellsow
will take over
the top positions
at the end of February
.
Whether the left will slide further into insignificance or whether it can move into a federal government for the first time in 2021 will depend on its success.
The Greens: finally a ruling party?
Icon: enlarge
From the living room to power?
Green top duo Baerbock, Habeck
Photo: Kay Nietfeld / dpa
Not only does the Union have to grapple with the K question, the green double leadership is also asked at every opportunity whether the chairman Annalena Baerbock or her co-boss Robert Habeck will take over.
It would be the first time ever that the Greens are running a candidate for chancellor.
In the polls they are consistently ahead of the SPD, but well behind the Union.
However, the Greens are betting that the lead will shrink when Germany comes out of crisis mode and it becomes clear to the people that Angela Merkel will soon be gone.
Baerbock or Habeck?
With the decision, according to the schedule so far, the Greens want
to wait
until after the state elections in Baden-Württemberg in
mid-March
.
Kretschmann is fighting for his office
Icon: enlarge
Green-black pioneer: Winfried Kretschmann
Photo: Marijan Murat / dpa
Baden-Württemberg
and Rhineland-Palatinate
kick off the super election year 2021
.
On
March 14
is selected in both states.
In Stuttgart, the Green Winfried Kretschmann would like to be re-confirmed in office at the age of 72.
He's a father that the Greens couldn't have baked better.
A little cranky, not cocky, conservative.
But the Greens have to fight in the country.
A survey in November saw the Union just ahead of the Greens, a few weeks ago the Greens lost the mayor's office in Stuttgart to the Union.
So far, the Greens and the Union have run the country together, but the green-black coalition argues a lot.
The state chairmen of the Greens have spoken out in favor of green-red, Kretschmann does not want to get involved in any coalition statement.
SPD hopes for momentum for the super election year
Icon: enlarge
Have to overtake the CDU again: Malu Dreyer
Photo: Thomas Frey / dpa
The election in
Rhineland-Palatinate
is particularly important for the battered SPD.
Here she wants to show on March
14th
at the start of the super election year that she can win.
Rhineland-Palatinate should also give momentum to the federal government.
Uncertain whether it will come to something: SPD Prime Minister Malu Dreyer is a popular country leader, but according to surveys, the Social Democrats are currently well behind the Union.
At the moment it would not be enough for the traffic light coalition to continue.
However: Even before the last election, the CDU was ahead for a long time, the then top candidate Julia Klöckner already believed she was the sure winner - but in the final sprint the SPD overtook Klöckner for the second time as the top candidate.
Now the much less known Christian Baldauf wants to win against Dreyer.
After the earthquake in Thuringia
Icon: enlarge
Bodo Ramelow: Is it enough for a left-wing majority government this time?
Photo: Jacob Schröter / imago images / Jacob Schröter
February 5, 2020 went down in history as the »Erfurt taboo«.
On this day, FDP man Thomas Kemmerich was elected Prime Minister in the Thuringian state parliament with the votes of the AfD.
There had never been anything like this in the Federal Republic of Germany before.
Kemmerich thus prevented Bodo Ramelow's re-election as head of government, which he believed to be certain.
Ultimately, the Liberal bowed to public pressure and Ramelow became Prime Minister.
Since then, the left-wing politician has led a red-red-green minority government with the support of the CDU.
Against the background of these events, the
new election planned
for
April 25th
in
Thuringia is
of particular importance.
But there is more to it than that: if Ramelow stays in office with a strong result, it could have a signal effect for everyone who is hoping for a red-red-green alliance after the general election.
Haseloff fights against the AfD
Icon: enlarge
Reiner Haseloff: Hardly any alternatives to Kenya
Photo: Klaus-Dietmar Gabbert / dpa
In
Saxony-Anhalt
, Prime Minister Reiner Haseloff (CDU) would like to
defend his place in the State Chancellery in Magdeburg
on
June 6th
.
He governs with the Kenya coalition of the CDU, SPD and Greens, which remains in the ongoing dispute - and may have to continue to do so after the state elections.
Because mathematically there is a lack of alternatives.
In the most delicate case, the AfD and the left could get a majority of the votes.
Then it would not even be enough for the previous center coalition of the three parties.
The CDU is under special observation in Saxony-Anhalt.
Because after the coalition crisis in the dispute about increasing the radio license fee, the question remains: How do the Christian Democrats feel about the AfD?
Haseloff rules out any cooperation with the far right.
But not everyone in the state CDU is so dogmatic about this.
First choice for Schwesig
Icon: enlarge
Schwesig: Popular as Prime Minister - but according to surveys, it will be tight
Photo: Jörg Carstensen / dpa
In
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania
- as in Berlin and in the federal government -
elections are
expected on
September 26th
.
SPD Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig is running for the first time in the country since she took over the helm from her predecessor Erwin Sellering in 2017.
The comrades rule the country together with the CDU.
Schwesig is popular, but according to the latest survey, the SPD and CDU are on par, followed by the AfD, the Left and the Greens, all still in double digits.
The FDP is below the five percent threshold.
Originally, the CDU wanted to try the celebrity factor in the northeast: young star Philipp Amthor was aiming for the state chairmanship, but stumbled upon his lobby affair.
Now the largely unknown District Administrator of Vorpommern-Greifswald, Michael Sack, leads the Union in the election.
Will Berlin get a ruling mayor?
Icon: enlarge
Müller, Giffey: SPD wants to defend the Red City Hall
Photo: Gregor Fischer / dpa
In
Berlin
, the SPD would like to defend the office of the governing mayor, with Franziska Giffey as the top candidate.
She would be the first woman to hold this post.
Incumbent Michael Müller is drawn to the Bundestag.
The Federal Minister for Family Affairs is the best-known of the mayoral candidates, but she is not unencumbered in the election: She is accused of plagiarizing her doctoral thesis.
The Free University of Berlin gave her a reprimand for her work, but did not revoke her doctorate from Giffey.
After much criticism, the university is now re-examining its decision, Giffey wants to renounce the title in the future.
The struggle for power in the capital is exciting because with the SPD, the Greens, the CDU and the Left, four parties have a chance of becoming the strongest force in the House of Representatives.
The Left will line up with the popular Senator for Culture Klaus Lederer as the top candidate, while the Greens and CDU are sending relatively unknown candidates into the race with Bettina Jarasch and Kai Wegner.
The city of 3.7 million people is currently ruled by a red-red-green alliance.
The election will take place at the same time as the general election on
September 26th
.
The end of the Merkel era - the general election
Icon: enlarge Photo: Michael Kappeler / dpa
2020 was the comeback of the crisis chancellor: The corona pandemic presents Angela Merkel with what is probably the greatest challenge of her term of office, the fight against the virus will also determine her final months of her chancellorship.
Your legacy is inextricably linked with the number of infections, corona deaths, the question of how the republic is getting through this crisis.
Angela Merkel will stop in 2021.
This is more than a personal farewell, after 16 years
an era will
end with the
federal election on September 26th
.
The election campaign will therefore be more exciting than it has been in a long time.
The Union is still way ahead in the polls, but that can change if the pandemic can be contained, if people realize: This Chancellor is really no longer running.
Who will come after Merkel?
What comes after Merkel?
The time of clear conditions seems to be over: black-green, Jamaica, red-red-green, the traffic lights - all these coalition options are currently conceivable, even if mathematically, according to the opinion polls, they are not all equally likely.
As of today.
Neither the Union nor the Greens have clarified the K question, both parties claim to lead a new government, the Greens for the first time in their history: Merz, Laschet, Röttgen, Söder, Baerbock, Habeck, nor are they all wrestling for power .
Little by little the field will clear until two top candidates remain.
The SPD is already further, sends Olaf Scholz into the race.
In a hopeless race?
So far he has not been able to pull the comrades out of the survey cellar, he still has to prove that, as a conservative social democrat, he does not contradict the left-wing course of his party.
Crucial questions are still open.
But one thing is certain: 2021 will mark a political turning point for Germany.
Icon: The mirror
/cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/prisa/VMXSEROZRFLUO5THK6ZMQ2QGPA.jpg)
