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Market panic is the time to enter the market! Master Shen summarizes four lessons for investors in 2020

2020-12-31T08:10:39.746Z


In 2020, the global pandemic of the new crown epidemic will close customs and economic development has stalled. Hong Kong people who travel to other countries during holidays will also have to settle at home this year. "Anti-epidemic" has become the new normal. Everyone has experienced it.


Financial News

Written by: Xu Shihao

2020-12-31 16:00

Last update date: 2020-12-31 16:00

In 2020, the global pandemic of the new crown epidemic will close customs and economic development has stalled. Hong Kong people who travel to other countries during their holidays will also have to settle at home this year. "Anti-epidemic" has become the new normal. Everyone has experienced a different Hong Kong is a different world.

Like the investment market, this year has also ushered in a number of "new normals"-new economic stocks are speculating, the old economy is abandoned, and new stocks double. The rules of the game seem to have changed overnight.

Shen Zhenying, Chief Executive Officer of Xunhui Securities, known as "Master Shen" in the 30-year history of the stock market, said frankly that when the stock market has turned upside down, there will be a "surge" this year. Fortunately, the successful "rescue position" will not cause major losses; In the meantime, the master also summed up four major lessons for stock investors, hoping that retail investors will think about how to improve their investment philosophy.

Shen Zhenying said that the new crown epidemic in 2020 is just like SARS in the past, "I will never forget it."

(Photo by Huang Shuhui)

"From now on, I will remember that there was a 啲咩 in 2020. It is like SARS in 2003, which will never be forgotten." 2020 is about to pass. Master Shen admitted in an interview with "Hong Kong 01" that the "new crown epidemic" broke out, and he never worried about it. Investment will come to naught, "Don’t worry about your investment, because it will definitely recover after the epidemic. My deepest feeling is not money. The epidemic can bring the global economy to a complete halt in a short period of time, and Europe and the United States are not able to control the epidemic. Many lives have been lost."

Although he is not worried about his own investment, the master has his own students. At the same time, he often answers questions and makes investment recommendations for investors on major platforms. This is more or less burdensome. In April this year, the New York May Oil Futures was once The experience of falling to "negative oil prices" made him feel deeply.

In April 2020, oil prices fell to a negative level.

(Profile picture)

Lesson 1: calmly analyze investment in unexpected situations

The master said that he was admitted to the hospital in April, and when he saw that the oil price dropped to US$20-30 after he was discharged from the hospital, he felt that the price of oil had fallen because Russia and Saudi Arabia had failed to reach a consensus on the issue of production cuts. "Oil prices are unlikely to be negative. Even if the storage fee is high, the oil production will stop production when it is negative. One barrel will lose one barrel, so it is better to stop production? So I thought it was a bottom line." Therefore, investors and their students are advised to buy one. Oil-only ETF (3175).

Unexpectedly, the ETF was at the level of 3 or 4 yuan when the master introduced it, but when the negative oil price hit the fund rollover, it fell by more than 50%. It almost became the "dim sum" of the big players. "The Chicago Mercantile Exchange changed its rules to allow The occurrence of negative oil prices in futures is due to the change in early April. I am not complaining about experts. Many stock commentators do not know the cause of the matter. They pressure investors to sell at a low price. If the basic factors change, oil prices can’t be long-term. , To stop the loss, (selling goods) is normal, but this time it is a coincidence, plus an accident."

There are always risks in the investment market. The master said that if risks occur, investors must have a calm and clear mind. Don’t let everyone talk about it. "Don’t tell you to stop losses and sell goods individually. You will really sell low. Sometimes you can eventually. Saved.” He said with a smile, that he had just been discharged from the hospital at that time, so he should go to bed early and rest, but he still had to work until midnight. The purpose was to find a way to save the warehouse and solve the problem. "The price of oil has increased by more than 40 dollars. There are only three ETFs. With my 30 years of experience in the investment market, this incident is worthy of being used as a teaching material for me to teach investors."

Extra Screening: A Review of Events in 2020

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Lesson 2: History is always surprisingly similar

Before the emergence of "negative oil prices," the market had been faint-hearted, all because of the spread of the epidemic to the world, the market was worried about the economic deterioration, and the global stock market plummeted. In March, the U.S. stock market broke four times. It has never been seen in history. Refers to the highest level, it fell by 10,000 points in 24 trading days. The Fed cut interest rates twice and at the same time "released water" again to restart unlimited allowances.

The stock market plummeted, and many investors were worried that they would fall into the "bottomless pool" and they left the market. The master said that this panic selling market sentiment often became a signal for him to grasp the future trend of the market. "Every stock It has its own value. In the end, if the market does not ask the price to sell, it will be much lower than the reasonable value. As long as you have the strength to hold a position, then you will win a lot of money."

"History is always surprisingly similar," said the master. In March this year, the U.S. stocks melted and Hong Kong stocks plummeted. Instead, he was not worried. He believed that it was the time to enter the market. "The situation will not be too bad. After the outbreak, the Fed has a lot of QE (quantity wide). In fact, the financial tsunami in 2008 and QE in 2009 will do the same thing again. After you experienced the financial tsunami and QE more than 10 years ago, they are actually exactly the same (this year). I would think it was unexpected. The market is picking up."

Lesson 3: Past performance does not equal the future

Hong Kong people always have a lot of "love knots" for investment, such as "Christmas Bell, buy HSBC", which is exactly the verbal teasing of investors, but this year, affected by the epidemic, under the persuasion of regulators, HSBC (0005) and Standard Chartered (2888) announced that it would not distribute final interest and cease repurchases, which could lead to the conflict between China and the United States. It was once reported that HSBC might be included in the "Regulations on the List of Unreliable Entities" of the Ministry of Commerce of China. The stock price once fell below the 28 yuan "Tsunami Supply" share price"!

At the end of the year, the stock price temporarily hovered at the level of 40 yuan. Many people still have hopes for HSBC. However, the master thinks that "Buying HSBC can be developed" is no longer seen. "Many people have, since the 1970s, Buying HSBC every year, it was developed before 2000. (Retail investors) don’t go deep into the rise of HSBC. Many investors just see the results and don’t know the cause and effect. They look at the past performance and turn it into the future performance.” He said frankly, HSBC’s Business in Europe and the United States has not improved. It is only supported by businesses in Hong Kong and the Mainland. However, in the long run, Hong Kong's economy will deteriorate, and relevant provisions will increase, and profitability will be affected. It is not worth holding in the long term.

The master believes that HSBC is not worth holding in the long term.

(Profile picture)

Lesson 4: Don't ask about "causality" in stocks

Under the epidemic, the new economy and the old economy alternate. The old economy such as finance, real estate and rental stocks underperformed the market; new economy stocks such as technology stocks and new energy vehicles even outperformed, and the market even raised the "market dream rate" - that is, do not ask Performance, regardless of the value principle, only needs fantastic growth expectations to evaluate the value of new economic stocks.

The master bluntly said that traditional valuation methods will not fail. It is just that depending on different types of shares, a more rigorous or looser valuation is given. "Don't worry about making money; don't worry about whether PE is expensive or not. To buy, it is only speculation, not the proper investment method. It is usually the skill of large investors deceiving retail investors to receive goods at high prices."

"The same lesson is that the technology stocks in 2000, the resource stocks in 2007, and even the technology stocks recently are the same. Regardless of the new economy and the old economy, (investment) depends on the economy and capital flow at the time. The cause and effect relationship must be clear. Experience, in the first half of the year or until October, everyone has been watching the new economy stocks, and now they are dead. It is not the trend of the new economy. Therefore, the stock price will only rise, and it will not fall sharply. You just haven't learned the lesson."

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Shen Zhenying Hong Kong stocks trend 01 Video I am home

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2020-12-31

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