A different new year in Times Square 0:40
(CNN) -
Yes, 2020 was largely a disaster.
Nobody blames you for wanting the new year to come.
But celebrating the wrong way could lead to months of suffering due to COVID-19.
"The problem is that we have a lot of COVID-19 transmission in the United States right now," said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor School of Medicine.
"Practically speaking, what that means is that if you go to a party with five or more people, there will almost certainly be someone with Covid-19 at that party."
READ: These are the CDC's recommendations to safely celebrate the New Year
Any meeting with people outside of your special bubble is risky.
But there are several reasons why New Year's Eve parties can be especially dangerous:
They're probably indoors -
New Year's Eve could be the coldest holiday in the pandemic in the U.S., which means more indoor parties and a higher risk of aerosol spread.
Scientists now know that the coronavirus "can stay in the air for minutes to hours," said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
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"These viruses can infect people who are more than 2 meters away from the infected person or after that person has left the space."
Guests may not wear masks all the time -
whether they're toasting champagne at midnight or snacking all night, partygoers are likely to remove their masks, if they wear one at all.
Even if the event is small, anyone outside of your social distancing bubble could become infected or infect others.
"If you have a party in your neighborhood, or if you just invite some friends, there is a pretty high risk," Hotez said.
It is important to remember that the coronavirus can be transmitted just by talking.
And many infections come from people who don't have symptoms (or don't have symptoms yet).
Young people may think they are invincible:
Even young, previously healthy people have suffered long-term complications from Covid-19.
"We see serious illnesses among healthy young adults with no apparent underlying causes," Hotez said.
“If that's due to… a higher dose of the virus, if they have genetic alterations that they don't know about, we just don't understand.
So we cannot reliably predict who will handle this virus well, and who will not.
Some young people have experienced long-term mental confusion, shortness of breath, and extreme fatigue months after infection.
Other complications can include "long-term vascular damage, cardiovascular damage, lung damage, neurological effects, also cognitive impairment," Hotez said.
In general, younger people are more likely to be asymptomatic than older people.
But that raises another problem: the risk of transmitting the coronavirus to many people without knowing it.
People at the celebration can sing or shout -
Singing and shouting can be dangerously effective ways to get the coronavirus into the air.
In Washington state, for example, 53 members of a choir fell ill (and two people died) after one of the members attended rehearsals and then tested positive for COVID-19.
New Year's parties are 'a covid-19 dream'
Because the coronavirus is highly contagious, "it doesn't take much to get this out of control," Hotez said.
“The voices at high volume so that your voice is heard over the music.
The lack of use of masks.
The fact that they are inside.
The fact that people are drinking alcohol, so they may be closer than usual.
This New Year the holidays are perfectly made for SARS-CoV-2 ”, the scientific name of the new coronavirus.
"This is a COVID-19 dream for the virus, unfortunately," Hotez said.
"All of these reasons are important reasons why we shouldn't get together this New Year's Eve."
Is there a way to celebrate the New Year safely?
"Yes, absolutely, whoever you are distancing yourself from socially," Hotez said.
The CDC has a long list of ideas on how to celebrate the New Year safely.
Between them:
- Organize a virtual party with friends and celebrate together.
- Plan a countdown for the neighborhood until midnight.
Neighbors can come out and cheer from the front of their houses.
- Choose a special meal at a local restaurant to share with your family.
- Watch the celebrations on TV or online.
- Call, text or leave voice messages for friends and family wishing them a happy new year.
If you already have plans for a big party, don't be afraid to cancel them to ensure a healthy start to 2021.
"It's okay if you decide to postpone or cancel your meeting," says the CDC.
"Do what's best for you."
And don't worry, this will probably be the last time health experts ask you to skip the New Year's Eve celebration.
"Once we start getting vaccinated, we will be in a much better position by the middle of next year," Hotez said.
"And we can have a much happier New Year 2022."
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